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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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1 hour ago, Cambon said:

 

What day would you say we are on now? 

Day 21, with standard deviation of 1.5-2.5 days. 6th Aug expecting 1,573 cases (that cases in real world not what Lord Ashford put in the dashboard) [peak exposure], 24th Aug 22 bed occupied on Nobles [peak hospitalization]. Case highly confident it, regarding bed may slight skewed upside but assuming 9.2 average stay which is likely too high if vast bulk are 2-17. But for planning purposes you need to plan for reasonable worst case scenario and hope for the best. 

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3 hours ago, Annoymouse said:

1573 being total cases? As we are likely to hit that tomorrow?

No no no..... We are not talking about little bit of wind, this is the big one, batten down the hatches. The number of 1,573 expected infections will occur in the real world within a 24 hour period. If they are all kids ~50% be asymptotic and I imagine ~50% of them will not be bad enough to seek a test, so down to 393 who would potentially seek a PCR test. Just mark those numbers down on napkin come back in 14 days.

I should produce a grid will predicted cases and hospitalizations for the entire period, and publish it. So far the hospitalization level has been exactly as I expected.

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12 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

The number of 1,573 expected infections will occur in the real world within a 24 hour period.

Right, my confusion was they can’t actually test that many in 24hrs, but I see what your saying, that’s how many are likely to be infected regardless of what the daily testing says, interesting stuff.

On our actual testing platform what is the highest number of active cases we will be likely to see? These 200+cases a day will be dropping off just as rapidly as they went on in 3 weeks time, I can’t see the active cases going much higher than say 3000-4000 active cases personally, that’s assuming we have consistent numbers of 200+ each day.

Edited by Annoymouse
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57 minutes ago, NoTailT said:

Apparently there's now a minor in ICU.

Any proof? Where did you get this info from if you can say? 
 

not being arsey just genuinely wondering! 

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1 hour ago, NoTailT said:

Apparently there's now a minor in ICU.

I hope this is not a rumour, I personally don’t think you should be writing messages on here saying ”apparently” regarding a minors health. Especially if it is not your child, very disrespectful. I understand that people may want to know what is going on, but it’s abit touchy regarding children. 

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35 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

Right, my confusion was they can’t actually test that many in 24hrs, but I see what your saying, that’s how many are likely to be infected regardless of what the daily testing says, interesting stuff.

On our actual testing platform what is the highest number of active cases we will be likely to see? These 200+cases a day will be dropping off just as rapidly as they went on in 3 weeks time, I can’t see the active cases going much higher than say 3000-4000 active cases personally, that’s assuming we have consistent numbers of 200+ each day.

When testing COVID+ results were a realistic reflection of reality (positivity rate under 5%, ideally 2%) then I used them for calibration purposes. Now I think they offer little value, and in a similar vein, track&track has an impossible task. Saying that, we should undertake some surveillance to ensure energy (so to speak) getting pushed into the Natural Wave, with associated future DHSC demand is balanced against what DHSC can offer. You can take more gas out of system with mitigations, which within model will be reflected by reduction in the 'effective R'. 

The testing seems to max out at about 800 a day. So the maximum results will come down to the positivity rate, and higher ever record positivity rate globally , ASAIK was in Indian town Maharashtra which managed 24.5%:

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/why-maharashtra-kerala-continue-to-record-high-covid-19-cases-1817732-2021-06-22

If we achieved this we could have 196 in a day. Last week the IOM achieve a positivity rate of 16.5%, and over the weekend we managed to get over 22% This is not a good thing, and shows testing really is falling over. The WHO back in May 2020, stated unless positivity rate has been under 5% for the past 5 days (as I recall) then a lockdown should not be eased. To obtain such positivity rates as case in IoM recently and India, you need to use "screening" which means you will have quite pronounced symptoms to even to able to have a test. Sadly a given number of COVID+ patients will require hospitalization, and this data is thankfully reliable and certain more useful now in terms of calibrating any model.

This may seen mad what is going on, but there is some rationale to it. If we thru this wave have 7-8K individuals which we can add to the existing 2+2s, then we will have more than 85% of population who are 2+2 equivalent. At this point we should achieve Herd Immunity in a context where personal freedoms are maintained against an acceptable risk of infection. We may have COVID+ getting off boat and create a localized wave say within a school but nation wide wave would not occur (as least with the existing variants).

Please note existing 2+2 becoming infected does not help this process in any way and for the benefit of existing 2+2 should take steps to avoid placing themselves at risk of infection. This particularly applies to 2+2s in high risk groups (say top 6 vaccination groups). Naturally anyone who is eligible to vaccination should take up the offer (and yes I do think anti-vaxxers are nuts). That right 2+2s can serve their country by staying in the house and eating pizza, watch TV, or like me rant on Manx Forums and Twitter all day (which in terms of COVID mitigation is perfect), if forced to go out take mitigations (mask, avoid crowds, wash hands, you know the drill). This will not go on forever, and next 4 weeks will see bulk of infections occur.

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3 hours ago, Uhtred said:

Which reinforces everything we know about FB.

Sorry to ask, but I know nothing about Manx FB but if go over their, to rant where are the best IoM COVID places to hang out. MF and Twitter lot more intuitive.

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Speaking out of turn has the local medical profession looked into:

"ivermectin zinc ionophore"

and have they recommended as a preventative measure Vit D  Zinc and a zinc ionophore?

I assume they are not allowed to do so.

 

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I am still perturbed by the turn of phrase from the article: “a rise in people attending the Emergency Department who were then admitted for further treatment”. Somebody on MF mentioned that a possible reason behind the increased attendance at A&E could be due to a recent ‘heat wave’. I agree that the last couple of days have been uncomfortably hot, and that, because of global warming this is IOM’s warmest July ever, but I am not sure that 25C meets the definition of the ‘heat wave’, even though I strongly beleive that humans are heating the planet. 

I have no doubt that the pressure for ‘reuniting families’ was a factor in the IOMG decision to allow ‘2 plus 2’ visitors to come to the Island without any restrictions, as was the political pressure for the IOM to be ‘free’ on Tynwald day. My view however, is that the IOMG have decided to transfer the responsibility for ‘Covid-management’ from the government to individual residents so that IOMG could reduce the amount of financial support they were giving to struggling tourism and hospitality sectors.

The Council of Ministers have become the new sole custodians of Covid policies. The net result thus far has been an incredible rise in daily cases (over 650 in the last 3 days alone) and quite a lot of anxiety throughout the entire community. I bet the ‘wise men of Tynwald’ did not see this coming (but the EAG did) i.e., the 111-line being overwhelmed, the government’s Covid dashboard data misleading, etc. All of these abject failures are happening whilst the Chief Minister is indulging in a bout of self-pity as he still ruminating about what he perceives to be his ‘unfair treatment’ by MR.

Our leaders seem unable to handle the truth, but this must not scare off the media outlets from reporting it, or is it too much to hope for?

ETA. Technically speaking, temperatures between 24C and 29C are classified as 'warm', above 29C they use the term 'hot'. A heat wave would not be declared until temperatures reach 31C, like what has been happening in the UK. Hence, I doubt that IOM A&E admissions are due to hot weather.

 

Edited by code99
heat wave
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26 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

But a vaccine that’s been cobbled together in less than a year is ……

Well, it's several vaccines and they're really quite clever, and the evidence would suggest that indeed they are

10 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

Here's a nice chart, lift some gloom

Image

 

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