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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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5 minutes ago, iom_dave said:

Not sure in reality that much is happening in the uk - there is still the tube being rammed everyday etc.  The Isle of Man has a much lower density of population so it naturally has social distancing compared to cities.

That is 100% not true, if you go into a club or mass gathering you have to provide a negative test result 

The public transport is mostly mask only and masks are being widely enforced in uk shops.

Because  we did not have the same level of infection before our politicos seen to think we can do without any mitigation.

"Mitigation" which the gov keep telling us we are doing................................

Listening to the press convo it is clear the MBE should have pursued a career in second hand car sales.

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2 minutes ago, Boris Johnson said:

That is 100% not true, if you go into a club or mass gathering you have to provide a negative test result 

The public transport is mostly mask only and masks are being widely enforced in uk shops.

Because  we did not have the same level of infection before our politicos seen to think we can do without any mitigation.

"Mitigation" which the gov keep telling us we are doing................................

Listening to the press convo it is clear the MBE should have pursued a career in second hand car sales.

Maybe not 100% true, but did you see the Euro final - that was crazy, put 3/4 of the iom in stadium and have a riot!  The government over here shouldn't have relaxed the May restrictions until the 18 year olds had a chance to be 2+2

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1 minute ago, iom_dave said:

Maybe not 100% true, but did you see the Euro final - that was crazy, put 3/4 of the iom in stadium and have a riot!  The government over here shouldn't have relaxed the May restrictions until the 18 year olds had a chance to be 2+2

That's my point, the 60k that were there had previously to prove they were Covid free.

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8 minutes ago, Boris Johnson said:

That is 100% not true, if you go into a club or mass gathering you have to provide a negative test result 

The public transport is mostly mask only and masks are being widely enforced in uk shops.

Because  we did not have the same level of infection before our politicos seen to think we can do without any mitigation.

"Mitigation" which the gov keep telling us we are doing................................

Listening to the press convo it is clear the MBE should have pursued a career in second hand car sales.

We're 'learning to live with it', which seems to be letting it rip and seeing what happens.

I think the situation would have to drastically change for anything in CoMin's approach to change now. No sense in rocking the boat or bruising egos.

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9 minutes ago, wrighty said:

A sensitivity analysis should be a part of any mathematical model.  I did a bit of it for Ben’s model earlier.  If R is increased by 0.5 (so about 15%) max bed occupancy doubles.  That is a very sensitive input variable.  As Ben himself points out, the other major flaw is in his model R suddenly falls to 1.1 at day 37.  That basically indicates lockdown.  The model I’ve used over the past year has a gradually decreasing R as immunity builds up.

Yes, that is how it would would.  I think a good question is why does the iom need a model.  As a first order approximation, is max English hospital beds / 500 not approximate enough?  Based on the below, that would be at approximately 5 beds a day.  England is more crowded and has less vaccine uptake.  These guys are far more qualified that anyone on here and are being subject to peer review by much more qualified people:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001172/S1302_University_of_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf

Occam's Razor...

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1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

To be fair to them, half the stuff they've moved to is hosted by Microsoft.

It's just an Office 365 form for a vaccination booking.

Something has really broken with the PowerBI dashboard though.


An Akamai outage is being reported and MS use them 

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57 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

Dave, I just do not have time to reply. The IoM has 1 Math's PhD me and 85K residents. You can apply what is referral to as topological data science, as used to technology company's, that was not practical in time I had, also not necessary.

You're Count Arthur Strong and I claim my £5.00

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