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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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28 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Your tone does you no favours, to be honest. I’ll ask my friend if he wants his details passing on. I doubt he will.

Just trying to blend in with Manx Forum crowd. This is not the place for airs and graces, it starts with all that by closing time when it all kicks off someone going to put me in hospital. Which is definitely not where I want to end up, laying in bed next door to COVID+ patients.

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4 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

Just trying to blend in with Manx Forum crowd. This is not the place for airs and graces, it starts with all that by closing time when it all kicks off someone going to put me in hospital. Which is definitely not where I want to end up, laying in bed next door to COVID+ patients.

Moderator message. Stop being a dick. You’re being deliberately provocative and attempting to show off. 

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44 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

Dave in normal times I run a Math's Society here, we always looking for speakers, if you put something together on foot and mouth model etc, them maybe you could give a talk. 

In the mean time the real issue is, what will number of body bags DHSC needs to buy if:

a) Wave goes thru population and 2+2 high risk do NOT do isolate

b) Wave goes thru population and 2+2 high risk do isolate

My hypothesis is:

(a) > > (b)

I don't live in the IOM, but have friends and family there.  Looking at your twitter page am really pleased that you are pushing Further Maths - I was the first to do Further Maths for 5 years at CRHS - would like to give credit to my Maths teacher Mr Horan as there was no timetabling for it but would have been better had some others had been encouraged too!

Regarding the questions on a and b, your model set up is to only look at children so cannot really help on 2+2 issues.

My feeling based on current trends on the ONS is that 50+ just aren't getting it anything like as much and the vaccines are working (see graphs below), this is also reflected in the more recent cuts of the manx data - it is actually quite a good tool though they really don't help themselves with failing to calc the diff on the front page each day!

I would say that 2+2 high risk should isolate, but that is common sense.  At an individual level, a high risk 2+2 person has no idea if they have good immunity and they need to consider whether a trip to a pub full of young people is worth it.  I suspect they won't be going there anyway.

The more interesting question I think is for the 15-30s and long covid.  They should be strongly encouraged to keep safe, they have a whole lifetime of long covid side effects to live with and have already had to put up with 16 months of covid rubbish, one more month and they will be fully vaccinated, but most have had one jab so hopefully wont be too bad.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/infections

image.thumb.png.fb10fdeda0bb0b1ec3c877fcb40f9343.png

The IOM is showing similar low proport in the over 50s (admittedly I havent got the raw data to directly compare the uk and the iom)

Most 50+ not vaccinated (possibly group 1 was in the date range)

image.png.71685d8c5a19ac854205149c79242688.png

Most 50+ vaccinated

image.png.d24de8f4b31298ba59a25281c1ab8552.png

 

Edited by iom_dave
typo
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25 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

Just trying to blend in with Manx Forum crowd. This is not the place for airs and graces, it starts with all that by closing time when it all kicks off someone going to put me in hospital. Which is definitely not where I want to end up, laying in bed next door to COVID+ patients.

Mmmm really !!??? Well one thing I can say is your not endearing yourself to anyone I feel. Not sure what your trying to achieve but you've seemingly failed massively .

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44 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

ou should be aware Manx Forums is the roughest social media venue in the IoM. I was told that people regularly get f**ked up the arse without vaseline in this place, and the only roughly venue is the freemasons.

Ok, that's it. Moderator = Please can someone take this joker out of theme here. There is no need for this tripe. 

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3 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Have you factored in that by shielding, some of these high risk 2+2 might succumb to other conditions and not get treatment for them? I’m not as certain as you seem to be that (a)>>(b), especially if you’re using ‘>>’ to mean what I interpret it to be.

By '> >' meant order of magnitude. Anyway, WoW regarding, "I'm not as sure", I got peak on 6th Aug with 1,573 infections with a 1.5-2.5 day standard deviation. Even if top 6 vax groups are prepared to go to Nobles now not sure what spare capacity be like in 2 weeks, again you know lot more than me. Explained situation to my 80yo old man and (rightly or wrongly) excepts the point that best he gets into bunker (I estimated 4 weeks, but people can just look out from their own bunker to see if the coast is clear). Vast bulk of 65+, have no real reason to be wondering around Tesco (likely without mask) around 6th August.  

You know how sick Island is much better than me, having 4K in grp4, and 9K in grp 6, implied to me friendly GPs were just waving people through. Lets take grp4, got 300 on anti-TNK, believe similar on chemo, how many solid organ transplant residents can we have... 50? Maybe got 1K at stretch of all rare conditions (100 here, 100 there but find that hard to believe). Yet, somehow got 4K in grp 4. Just between us, on the surface this does not show DHSC in the best light and I hope in time more light will be shone on this seeming discrepancy.

With today presser I did agree on one point on modeling, that across age/risk strata becoming 2+2 does roughly reduce the risk by a factor of x1/20. I am not medic and await RA views but immunosuppressed patients in particularly as far as I know there is a question mark over how effective the vaccine will be. Also advice for this group in theory was to avoid DMARDS for 2 weeks post vaccination, but how many do you think actually read the guidance notes. Back in April 2020, I had to explain a RA patient that though in principle they could continue driving lessons, in order to have appropriate mitigation you and driving instructor should use full PPE. Some want to climb up tree, and others think as long as do not lick toilet door handle in Tesco then everything will be OK.     

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This heat seems to be getting to some people. 

Henriette indicates modelling is a bit rubbish.

I can see what she meant now.

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Just now, Apple said:

This heat seems to be getting to some people. 

Henriette indicates modelling is a bit rubbish.

I can see what she meant now.

The science modelling can be ok. It's just when the people doing it act like proper bell ends

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5 minutes ago, the stinking enigma said:

I got no beef with dr fairfax. Manxforums can be a daunting place.  It's quite easy to overcompensate and come accross as over aggressive. 

WHO ARE YOU CALLING AGGRESSIVE HERE MATE???? 
 

 

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