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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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54 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

Morning,

I’m golfing later today, then off out …

I’ve a £100 budget for the day. Could Ben Fairfax knock me up a likely expenditure spreadsheet with attached Covid risk analysis based on a 2 + 2 visiting a minimum of 9 pubs in two differing conurbations.

I’m aiming to shoot a 75 gross, can he calculate my chances also?

Thanks in advance.

Hope I don't have to see you in Ramsey.. 😘

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15 hours ago, iom_dave said:

Yes, that is how it would would.  I think a good question is why does the iom need a model.  As a first order approximation, is max English hospital beds / 500 not approximate enough?  Based on the below, that would be at approximately 5 beds a day.  England is more crowded and has less vaccine uptake.  These guys are far more qualified that anyone on here and are being subject to peer review by much more qualified people:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001172/S1302_University_of_Warwick_Road_Map_Scenarios_and_Sensitivity_Step_4.2__6_July_2021__1_.pdf

Occam's Razor...

Had a bit more think about the above, needs an engineering adjustment of x2, maybe 10 beds.

Justification is that the IOM is a much smaller population, the UK will be benefiting from averaging between high and low areas.

Models are only as good as their data inputs/calibration, each wave of covid in each country seemed to be unique so there are very limited data inputs - it turns into expert judgement.  This is why you need an epidemiologist to be in charge of the modelling working with a mathematician to do the implementation.

Main things are get vaccinated, be sensible with masks and try to give people space even if they aren't aware they need it.

 

Edited by iom_dave
typo
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1 hour ago, Nom de plume said:

Morning,

I’m golfing later today, then off out …

I’ve a £100 budget for the day. Could Ben Fairfax knock me up a likely expenditure spreadsheet with attached Covid risk analysis based on a 2 + 2 visiting a minimum of 9 pubs in two differing conurbations.

I’m aiming to shoot a 75 gross, can he calculate my chances also?

Thanks in advance.

Jesus christ almighty,

I would suggest you bring a spare mask...in case you get a hole-in-one. 

Hope you have a tee-riffic day. 

Don't go poisoning members of the public with your par-right views. 

Don't foreget to social distance. No ifs, ands or putts. 

Thanks Nom, and have a great day tiger.

 

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2 hours ago, cissolt said:

What are your thoughts on Henrietta's comment that models don't work on the Isle of Man?  

They won’t get out of bed for less than £10,000!

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There's an interesting article in the DT this morning about big reductions in genome sequencing for arrivals from Amber and even Red listed countries: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/22/staggering-drop-sequencing-pcr-tests-track-covid-variants/

I'll be happy to pass on a pdf version for those interested in reading it and who don't have a DT account. Just DM me and I'll send it over.

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4 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

We aren’t even doing Genomic sequencing are we? There has been no mention of the variant for some time either, I think it’s just assumed it’s Delta.

Given practically all of UK cases are Delta, I think its kind of expected.

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13 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

We aren’t even doing Genomic sequencing are we? There has been no mention of the variant for some time either, I think it’s just assumed it’s Delta.

I thought Liverpool have been doing it since Janaury?

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12 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

4 times!

What a load of shit.

I've done a bit of a search and there don't seem to be records (at least that I can find) of more than two infections with Covid from proven different strains.  And that is rare.  Most of the early reports of having covid multiple times are actually multiple positive tests from the same infection, sometimes months later.  So called 'persistent shedders'.  And immunity from infection should last for several months, so being infected 4 times in the 16 months or so since this all kicked off is, how should I say it, unlikely.

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24 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

We aren’t even doing Genomic sequencing are we? There has been no mention of the variant for some time either, I think it’s just assumed it’s Delta.

I’ve just been in the coop and there are only two members of staff in. The rest are all off ‘sick’. So, yes, I think we can safely assume it’s Delta. 

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8 minutes ago, wrighty said:

I've done a bit of a search and there don't seem to be records (at least that I can find) of more than two infections with Covid from proven different strains.  And that is rare.  Most of the early reports of having covid multiple times are actually multiple positive tests from the same infection, sometimes months later.  So called 'persistent shedders'.  And immunity from infection should last for several months, so being infected 4 times in the 16 months or so since this all kicked off is, how should I say it, unlikely.

It's porkie pies then.

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