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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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37 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

I say crack on if youngish and not group 4 (and maybe 6). I would not be taking my 80yo father down the pub to get tanked up for next weeks. Told him best to Netflix and chill with misses for few weeks. But appropriate it completely his choice if he chooses to do otherwise.   

The risk from Covid to a double jabbed 80 year old is about the same as that to a non jabbed 50 year old.  
 

so basically zero risk, or a risk so negligible  that I would suggest it would be outweighed by the mental and wellbeing benefit of a pint in the pub with mates.

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3 hours ago, AlanShimmin said:

Is there possibly something else doing the rounds at the moment? 

I know of 3 separate people who have come down with a cough/flu type thing. They did an LFT (negative) but 2 had a PCR (negative). 

 

Now they're back up and alright

Imagine being shocked that people can still get and throw off a cold, even in these pandemic end times. >facepalm<

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3 minutes ago, Danoo said:

Not all valid and most very flimsy and repetitive. 

And mainly based on what happened months ago before people were vaccinated.  When they still aggressively ventilated a lot of patients, or on stats from parts of the world with totally different demographics and health care provisions, average life expectancy etc.

All we can work on is here and now.  Fact is the place is crawling with COVID, hardly anyone has significant symptoms and the hospital isn’t full.  Most people don’t know they have it despite virtually no mitigation’s in place other than vaccinations and natural immunity.

I personally can’t see that changing, and over the next few weeks the number of people volunteering for tests will plummet and it will largely be over.

Battle won by the GMP, vaccinations, and some patience around opening the borders until it was safe to do so.

A few bumps along the way and untold damage to many peoples mental health, physical health through treatment delays and finances, but ultimately in a few weeks it will be game over with some longer term restrictions on international travel.

The downside will be a population now so scared that every time there is a flu outbreak or anything similar they will expect government to intervene and tell them all to stay at home.

What’s the next thing to panic about?  Probably flu season

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We shall see.

It looks like it is going to be survival of the "Intelligent" as in, people who can see this sh1t storm as it approaches and take proportional precautions.

TBH getting rid of the stupid will not be a bad thing.

 

5 minutes ago, Danoo said:

Make yourself a drink, go and sit in the garden, take a few deep breaths. You're not sounding very healthy with your repeated rants.

L

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7 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

The risk from Covid to a double jabbed 80 year old is about the same as that to a non jabbed 50 year old.  
 

so basically zero risk, or a risk so negligible  that I would suggest it would be outweighed by the mental and wellbeing benefit of a pint in the pub with mates.

About 0.4% risk of fatality. 
 

Just being 80 gives you an annual risk of death around 8%

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Spent a lovely day in Port Erin. Thousands there, only one mask in sight. Lovely to see people enjoying life again in the sun and forgetting about all the fear propagated on places like here and Facebook.  

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Just now, wrighty said:

About 0.4% risk of fatality. 
 

Just being 80 gives you an annual risk of death around 8%

Exactly.  Some serious perspective is needed here.

Last year I would have been telling an 80 year old to be a bit wary while things panned out.

Now, enjoy your remaining years because being blunt the odds are pretty heavily stacked against you in lots of ways.

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8 minutes ago, wrighty said:

About 0.4% risk of fatality. 
 

Just being 80 gives you an annual risk of death around 8%

Does that low rate of fatality carry over to our under staffed/ funded hospital too?

Edited by Boris Johnson
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56 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

Expected by calibrated SEIR model, I am just the messenger. We assume there was not some unknown zero ground before this event:

https://www.gov.im/news/2021/jun/27/important-message-for-students-at-st-ninians-high-school/

Rest straight verbatim out of SPI-M playbook. Lot people want to know who I am, as if it effects the mathematics, and with regard to that posted this:

https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/who-i-am-and-why-did-i-produce-these-models?authuser=0

I don’t think you have calibrated the model accurately. I think your R is way off, your length of stay is off, choosing a single seeding is inaccurate given we now have 1000s, but mainly modelling the population as a homogeneous 14765 susceptible group is way off reality. You also don’t have a stratified admission rate according to age. 
 

Dr Ewart said models weren’t helpful here due to our small numbers and I can see where she’s coming from. I’ve spent the last year plus modelling this pandemic. My first effort did the trick quite well, but recently the confidence intervals have just been far too wide - we don’t really know R for delta, we don’t know the exact vaccine efficacy, and all models are very sensitive to these inputs. 
 

Last time I ran them, my conclusion was once we’d vaxxed over 30s we should be able to cope with unmitigated spread. I think that’s where we are now, and so far so good. 

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Just for the fun of it I see Jersey have postponed opening of restrictions....

The planned lifting of Covid restrictions in Jersey will not happen until September at the earliest, the government has announced.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-jersey-57950415

As an aside, are the "government" here going to follow the UK and insist on Covid passports for entry to nightclubs and the like in September?

I cant see it, as they do not seem to have the intelligence to see the benefit.

Edited by Boris Johnson
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8 minutes ago, Boris Johnson said:

Does that low rate of fatality carry over to our under staffed/ funded hospital too?

It’s averaged accross the Uk as I understand so I would suggest your odds here are better.

You probably think an 80 year old who gets COVID is sure to die.  Not sure what more people can do that show you the real-time and real world current figures?

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3 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

It’s averaged accross the Uk as I understand so I would suggest your odds here are better.

You probably think an 80 year old who gets COVID is sure to die.  Not sure what more people can do that show you the real-time and real world current figures?

Really? Have you been in Nobles with a serious condition? Quite clearly you have not.

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23 minutes ago, Danoo said:

Imagine being shocked that people can still get and throw off a cold, even in these pandemic end times. >facepalm<

Not surprised at all tbf. Just offering up the idea that it may be happening and "everyone being wiped out with Covid" is actually just some other crappy bug going round. 

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1 minute ago, Boris Johnson said:

Really? Have you been in Nobles with a serious condition? Quite clearly you have not.

You are going way off topic here, and getting a bit ranty.

If someone is 80 there is an 8 percent chance they won’t see 81.  If that same person contracts COVID there is a 0.4 percent that COVID will kill them (assuming two jabs)

You are still going on like COVID is a huge risk and will kill us all.  It won’t.

Nobles might not be the best hospital in the world but I have never really had an issue.  Nobles isn’t likely at majorly skew the simple statistics Wrighty quoted, certainly no more so than being in a rural area of the UK.

COVID here is done.  The only issues now will be if comin bow to the panic of people like you rather than actually watching what is going on.

PS - my mate went into nobles yesterday and is a  COViD case.  Not going into details but he would have ended up in Nobles at exactly the same time as he did COVID or no COVID.

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3 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

You are going way off topic here, and getting a bit ranty.

If someone is 80 there is an 8 percent chance they won’t see 81.  If that same person contracts COVID there is a 0.4 percent that COVID will kill them (assuming two jabs)

You are still going on like COVID is a huge risk and will kill us all.  It won’t.

Nobles might not be the best hospital in the world but I have never really had an issue.  Nobles isn’t likely at majorly skew the simple statistics Wrighty quoted, certainly no more so than being in a rural area of the UK.

COVID here is done.  The only issues now will be if comin bow to the panic of people like you rather than actually watching what is going on.

PS - my mate went into nobles yesterday and is a  COViD case.  Not going into details but he would have ended up in Nobles at exactly the same time as he did COVID or no COVID.

Ranting is several paragraphs, as above. I am doing one liners in the main.

Quoted for reference in about 3-4 weeks thanks. 🙂

Edited by Boris Johnson
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