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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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2 hours ago, wrighty said:

So how is your model performing, several days in?

When I made my first model I also started with a single seeding, but as cases went up I adjusted it as time went on. Have you made any attempt to model the local growth in cases we have here so as to better estimate R and correct the current numbers to better play forwards, rather than sticking to R=3.35 and there was 1 case in mid-July?

In rough terms the results to date been good, and I need to do backtesting, and could also calibrate the models against cases/hospitalization. More ideas which you guys can throw at me, overfitting, and degrees of freedom. Not fitting with back testing though, that a no no for me. The model usefulness is we see the likely scale of cases and the duration over which they will occur.  

Multiple seeding is an issue clearly, also knowing zero case date, and growth from when the number of cases was small (i.e. stochastic model Dr H mentioned). Would have been so cool if had @rachomics really drilling down on what exactly happened around that time. All we know is that teacher in SNHS was infected on 27th June. Who knows, if asymptotic case before that, how many infected on 27th and so on.... I took that event on 27th though at the zero case. R = 3.35 I went through before, also as said in reality is going to depend itself on time, risk aversion and network. What I did was good enough for our household which was the original planned audience. Only when found out EAG had no such model at hand did I go off to get something for public domain.

The Academy of Medical Sciences, done much more granular, refined model, but again get overfitted and too many variables which I am not a fan of. In finance simple, and conceptually clean models work the best for me, and hence that is my taste.  The Academy of Medical Sciences also factors in UK Summer Natural Wave and has materials out modelling vaccine drift and winter 2021/2 demand on NHS.

[EDIT: One more issue you could throw at me 'look ahead' they call it in finance. When use data which could not have been known at the time of the prediction. Why so many models look good in development, but failed when used in the real world. Dr H mentioned 'Black Swan', the author of that book N.Talab wrote the book because he blew up writing way out of the money options, which is one good example of when a model failed in real world. But he is right in thinking tails are lot fatting than you would expect, but anyone been in finance for more the 5 years (who is not insolvent) knows the anyway.]

Edited by BenFairfax
Quality of my literacy education. Thankfully, kids after me had SATS, Ofsted & Ofqual.
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1 hour ago, Danoo said:

Sorry to disappoint you but the world really isn't watching us. No-one is. 

Of course they aren’t.

The Mary’s have us down as some sort of Josef Mengele experimentation camp.

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3 hours ago, BenFairfax said:

I told you that, not you presenting it as your idea. Come on, time stamped on Manx Forums. Will start ringing Manx Care various medic I know Monday, and see what going on. Worse case is I will get as asbo for keep ringing.

They would rather you didn't. They have actual work to do - not like you teachers and your six weeks summer holidays. 

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4 hours ago, Boris Johnson said:

 

As an aside, are the "government" here going to follow the UK and insist on Covid passports for entry to nightclubs and the like in September?

I cant see it, as they do not seem to have the intelligence to see the benefit.

I don't have the intelligence to see the benefit. Could you explain what it is please?

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People have been wondering about the effect of the vaccines, hospital admissions, percentages etc; this twitter thread is well worth a reassuring look. The doomers need to give it a fucking rest

 

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27 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

People have been wondering about the effect of the vaccines, hospital admissions, percentages etc; this twitter thread is well worth a reassuring look. The doomers need to give it a fucking rest

 

There it is.  Literally in picture form for them, and they still won’t get it.

We have vaccinated enough people that it is no longer an issue.

End of.

No sane and intelligent person is currently saying anything different.

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38 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Of course, there are some other people who should read that thread too. 

They had their silly protest in London today, here are some highlights

 

with a Trump 2024 flag right in the centre, on Trafalgar Square, in London, England, last time i looked he wasn't in the running for Bozza's job. Fucking idiots the lot of them, its basically a conspiracy theorists day out, with a few far right nutters thrown in.

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2 hours ago, AlanShimmin said:

They would rather you didn't. They have actual work to do - not like you teachers and your six weeks summer holidays. 

Please do me a favor and think of some decent put downs. Ideally involving the previously mentioned lubricant and perhaps even public toilets to spice it up a bit. Noticed you been on site for a year so assume you a COVID OAP come over, but let me fill you in, this forum has a long held tradition old boy of some seriously edgy stuff so please keep up a good show. 

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