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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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6 hours ago, wrighty said:

Dr Ewart said models weren’t helpful here due to our small numbers and I can see where she’s coming from. I’ve spent the last year plus modelling this pandemic. My first effort did the trick quite well, but recently the confidence intervals have just been far too wide - we don’t really know R for delta, we don’t know the exact vaccine efficacy, and all models are very sensitive to these inputs. 

Had quants, actuaries, and people in gaming, tell me the comments she made regarding mathematical modeling was cringeworthy and embarrassing. Finance, insurance and gaming are parts of economy which bring home the bacon. See the IOM GDP figures, and ask were the foreign earnings and coming from. All three are based on mathematical modeling, all three require specialist training, and all three to continue here need to continually import talent. What she should have said is mathematical modeling in fine and IoM IOMG is funded by its application but Ben Fairfax and a complete bell end and should shut the f**k up! I would have been absolutely cool with that, but representing the IoM like its a country still living in the dark ages I am not. 

Before that we had some really odd comments on Herd Immunity from Health Minister and other one. Fair enough I suppose from them but what Dr H did was not cool. I think it must have been a rush of blood, and she is regretting what she said now. Here is a recap, try not to cringe:

"Herd immunity would be if you had it for the rest of your life" - Howard Quayle Herd immunity does not mean lifetime immunity.

 

"Herd immunity only works if it's a permanent barrier against infection" - David Ashford

"Our chief defense against COVID is not trying to achieve herd immunity, it's the vaccination program" - Henrietta Ewart

I am just please (as I hoped from the start) that IOMG Government is just a bunch of people who do what UK PH said', photocopy whatever they sent here and memorize the catchphrases and repeat them at the press conferences. I feel lot safer with that set up than if decisions were actually being made here.

 

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1 hour ago, BenFairfax said:

Please do me a favor and think of some decent put downs. Ideally involving the previously mentioned lubricant and perhaps even public toilets to spice it up a bit. Noticed you been on site for a year so assume you a COVID OAP come over, but let me fill you in, this forum has a long held tradition old boy of some seriously edgy stuff so please keep up a good show. 

You lose all credibility when you start posting this sort of tripe. 

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2 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

Of course, there are some other people who should read that thread too. 

They had their silly protest in London today, here are some highlights

 

I was rather hoping she'd died by now.

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1 minute ago, quilp said:

Blimey, that's a bit harsh coming from you fella... 

Perhaps. Moreso utilitarian. Her shitespewing over the last 18 months has likely damaged a number of lives.

If I had a preference it'd be for her to stop being a complete knob and trying to convince people to do things that are more likely to cause them serious harm, but that doesn't seem likely, so second best option...

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8 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

we don’t know the exact vaccine efficacy

I just assumed 76%, which fine assumption for our household. Really should be multi-factor model to break down various vaccinates, ages and maybe when given. Have you guys done this?  By slightly worried in SA variant got here with grp 4 mostly getting Az, and so on. Anyway, lot work for someone but net-net curve will look the same.

I read article on anti-body level, and 31% over 80s have no detectable anti-bodies but clearly the vaccine is doing something (I assume they are not still living in the bunker post 2+2). I basically have no grasp on medical issues or biology, as with most things biology I bet @rachomics could sketch out situation. Does vaccine efficacy decay with time, what level of vaccine drift and so on.

But thanks good point.

Really want to know details behind zero day. I spoke teacher who said SNHS day 0 case was not on d1 of 'd1 & release', and got impression was not day 6, but that could just be covering for the person I do not know, but you would have the details. Is this true, you talking Day 0 = 25th June and then peak with model I produced is 1st Aug (not 4th Aug as think case now). That one week off, before we get freak out and supermarket shelves get stripped!

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16 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

You lose all credibility when you start posting this sort of tripe. 

Not a fan of complete strangers telling me what to do. I should block him really, be easier, doubt I will ever get a decent put down.

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8 hours ago, wrighty said:

Last time I ran them, my conclusion was once we’d vaxxed over 30s we should be able to cope with unmitigated spread. I think that’s where we are now, and so far so good. 

Could not find the post, but I mentioned the point that model has single seeder and then you mentioned the same issue back at me. Anyway, it a technical limitation to make implementation more manageable but not ideal. Not even tallied up total seeders but critical ones will be additional seeders at start of wave. Net effect be increase effective R over the initial week or so. Someone must have implemented a work around for this. We know multi seeded wave is going to have bit more juice in it. My thinking off top of my head is move Day 0, 1 day earlier be a smudge for this. Since say 3 new seeders off boat in pool say 10 infectious, different % effect than when have 250 infectious. I agree is an effect but outside early stage of wave, it is marginal effect. Will sleep on this, what was your plan with working around this? 

Yes, I agree with unmitigated spread once the over 30s vaxxed, with the proviso regarding mitigation for 2+2s in high risk groups. I gave 22 max bed occupancy for wave over 15k unvaxxed (we agreed likely 9.4 avg hospital stay too long [but skewed to be safe, what #days you using?], but think 1.23% hospitalisation rate in line with data I have and PHE estimate of ~1%, what % are you using for hospitalizations?), but if see large numbers 2+2 infections that is not a number I would be happy to stand behind. [Can see why PHE going with this in Summer, can you imagine situation if this wave was occurring in November]. I said shielding to get peoples attention (and PHE advice for UK shielders is along these lines, see below), members from other groups outside grp 1, 2, 4, may also prefer this course of action, but some messaging and ability the get food delivered should be done at national level for 2+2 high risk groups. As I said consultants/GPs not sent letters out with any advice AFAIK. Some had idea of safe times, i.e. times when vital services like food shops, chemist, public transport, masks are mandatory. It just means 2+2s who want to take mitigations and be in an environment where less likely to be infected they can be. Mitigation for 2+2s at society level (not individual) has following advantages:

(1) 2+2s infections do not add anything regarding goal of reaching herd immunity

(2) Infected 2+2s put further pressure on health system

(3) Political fall out if have bad outcomes for 2+2s

(2) or (3) could lead to reverse in policy and end up in no man's land. If the march to Herd Immunity is stopped mid track, and we end up with mandated restrictions; the entire point of the program to reach situation needing no restrictions has failed. Jersey gone into this state now, and stated will have restrictions until September at least. (see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-jersey-57950415) What a disaster since then you talking about going into Winter before restart the wave.

I mentioned 'COVID-19: Preparing for the future (Looking ahead to winter 2021/22 and beyond)', 15 July 2021 by The Academy of Medical Sciences, on p16 it shows outcomes of models regarding cases, hospitalisations, long COVID, and deaths for UK. The plan is clear to reduce demand on hospitals in middle winter January 2020 (usual peak) and get bulk through system between mid-Aug to mid-Sep. From this report the proportions regarding outcomes from cases are: hospitalization ~1% cases, long COVID ~2.6% cases, deaths ~0.1% cases. The modelling of these outcomes assumes that shielders follow updated PHE advice:

"However, as someone who is at a higher risk of becoming seriously ill if you were to catch COVID-19, you may wish to think particularly carefully about additional precautions you might wish to continue to take. Individuals may choose to limit the close contact they have with those they do not usually meet with in order to reduce the risk of catching or spreading COVID-19, particularly if they are clinically extremely vulnerable and if COVID-19 disease levels in the general community are high."

See:

Guidance on protecting people who are clinically extremely vulnerable from COVID-19 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) (21 July 2021)

 

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After the sunshine of Covid & those halcyon days of fully paid furlough Summer 2020 Prosecco ‘working from home’ garden parties, the rain will soon start to fall and the pain will truly begin to be felt …….

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57958178

…. and a generation of half educated kids 

…. and non elective surgery waiting lists reaching 3 years 

….. and, and, and.

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9 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

After the sunshine of Covid & those halcyon days of fully paid furlough Summer 2020 Prosecco ‘working from home’ garden parties, the rain will soon start to fall and the pain will truly begin to be felt …….

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57958178

…. and a generation of half educated kids 

…. and non elective surgery waiting lists reaching 3 years 

….. and, and, and.

And some would still rather be forced to lock themselves away 

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28 minutes ago, AlanShimmin said:

And some would still rather be forced to lock themselves away 

Most of them are retired, Government employees or living off free money ….. 99.9% in fact.

Edited by Nom de plume
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