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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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18 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

DESC may have taken over the site and applied its all inclusive mantra, based on a lower common denominator and assign status of newbies to us. But we get the keep to discipline points. How do you feel about MF going all PC, I thought this place was one of the last bastion's of people saying whatever comes into their head.  

There's a definite Primary 1 air to the new system with its special badges for not doing very much.

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25 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

All that on the horrors of being born in 1900 and not a single mention of Izal.

Izal is the perfect example of something invented to solve a problem which absolutely and unequivocally didn't. 

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1 hour ago, BenFairfax said:

 

@wrighty I cannot be more transparent that this, but I noted that none of my queries you yourself I got a reply to.

 

Perhaps I missed those specific queries in the many posts you’ve made in the last few days here. Then again I’ve been out and about most of the weekend not hooked up to MF - Calf Sound Cafe, Quids Inn playing a gig, Noa’s, Port Erin beach fest, Byron pizza…practicing what I’m preaching about how to now live with the virus. 
 

If you PM me your email address I can send you a couple of papers I’ve written to document the mathematical methods I used in my model, and latterly the assumptions I used in the latest round of modelling which I derived from the UK winter wave. Admission rates and fatalities are stratified for age according to our local demographic and percentage vaccination uptake. 

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1 hour ago, Danoo said:

No, it’s far too early to be optimistic. Please don’t let it be over this early. Some people don’t even know anyone who has been ill yet, they need some stories to tell the grandkids. 

I'm actually one of those. Not sorry about it for many reasons . Wouldnt be sorry not to have any stories to tell. Content in the knowledge I was there observing the incredible Prom works . Will I live long enough to see them finished though ! 

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26 minutes ago, Gladys said:

Izal is the perfect example of something invented to solve a problem which absolutely and unequivocally didn't. 

It did make you think though before you used it did the end justify the means . 

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7 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Perhaps I missed those specific queries in the many posts you’ve made in the last few days here. Then again I’ve been out and about most of the weekend not hooked up to MF - Calf Sound Cafe, Quids Inn playing a gig, Noa’s, Port Erin beach fest, Byron pizza…practicing what I’m preaching about how to now live with the virus. 
 

If you PM me your email address I can send you a couple of papers I’ve written to document the mathematical methods I used in my model, and latterly the assumptions I used in the latest round of modelling which I derived from the UK winter wave. Admission rates and fatalities are stratified for age according to our local demographic and percentage vaccination uptake. 

Thx, I find UK Winter Wave document rather insightful regarding what equivalent document sent here must have contained. I should try to get discipline to read through more of it. I was cooped up, and will continue until peaks past, a walk around PSM or cycle ride will be about as far as I will get.

Thanks will PM email, and please send what have, I will not pick holes in what you have and just compare. I think we are week away from peak infections, but time will tell. With stratified I mentioned RA now have comorbidity data, and break all down to specific primary diagnosis. Also regarding the risk, an object function be of interest, JCVI picked fatalities, but I would have gone for number of lost quality years as NICE does. 

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29 minutes ago, NoTailT said:

You know what disappoints me most? Is that we haven't had any projections from data expert Josem. I guess @BenFairfaxwill have to do.

Josem was really good on vaccine roll out, got to take your hat off to him for that. With SEIR models and me, I made them for our households internal modeling and only thought about public dissemination when EAG member told me the had seen to such models. Now everyone can have a go, just plug in numbers and see what comes out:

https://sites.google.com/webcabcomponents.com/seir-model-of-iom-natural-wave/seir-model-live?authuser=0

 

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