IOM Covid removing restrictions

[TheTeapot]

SHIELDER

[TheTeapot]

5 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

I agree, and to avoid my issues with literacy, I have now gone with more direct message, which I truly hope does have correct grammar. Please advice if could make it clearer: 

 

[BenFairfax]

10 hours ago, AlanShimmin said:

Perhaps it's been more widespread here than we thought. 

@BenFairfax have you had a PCR test in the last 18 months?

I have never had a PCR test, but we will start doing testing within household to try to prevent over the peak, one of out household members infecting all the rest. Not odd on. But from SAGE numbers as I recall from last year in another member of your household is COVID+ you have a ~50% change to becoming infection yourself from the member.

Regarding cases PRIOR to this wave, last year public knowledge that IoM PH had anti-body tests and half were used at some point, and other half may have been used. @wrighty may well know, and may well give us insight into % of unvaccinated with anti-bodies present due to prior infections. Regarding calibrated SEIR model, after a number of discussion what number of individuals, considering PCR+ data and models coming out of UK (which did wide scale anti-body testing), we came to conclusion that estimate of number of unvaccinated with anti-bodies due to prior infection was ~5,000 (real world not PCR+). Please I am being serious, if you have alternative ideas, with an attached argument please let me know because this input will effect size of the Natural Wave we are now experiencing.  

[The Old Git]

21 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

SHIELDER

And advise

[BenFairfax]

16 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

 

How would you phrase it? Going for something direct and clear. Did analysis of user behavior on the SEIR site from logs and bulk people want the key points and that's it.

 

[TheTeapot]

I wouldn't phrase it at all, I think you are massively overreacting, that your model doesn't take account of the effect of the vaccine, that your talk the other day of body bags is dumb, that you've got yourself trapped in a whirlwind of numbers and doom, that because of this where you think you are helping you probably are not, and that you should rethink your whole approach.

But mostly I was commenting on your spelling.

[BenFairfax]

15 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

I wouldn't phrase it at all, I think you are massively overreacting, that your model doesn't take account of the effect of the vaccine, that your talk the other day of body bags is dumb, that you've got yourself trapped in a whirlwind of numbers and doom, that because of this where you think you are helping you probably are not, and that you should rethink your whole approach.

But mostly I was commenting on your spelling.

UK PH got the same message already out, and their Natural Wave peak will be in September:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19/guidance-on-shielding-and-protecting-extremely-vulnerable-persons-from-covid-19

Hard to tally this with advice here to date. As with all situations, the key term is "advice", but IoM PH saying nothing it not advice. 

I know it will take some time to live this down, and I can live with raised eyebrows.

 

With SHIELDER thing, was thinking whether SHIELDERS better.

[TheTeapot]

1 minute ago, BenFairfax said:

 

 

With SHIELDER thing, was thinking whether SHIELDERS better.

Both are better than SHEILDER

 

[Ramseyboi]

56 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

But from SAGE numbers as I recall from last year in another member of your household is COVID+ you have a ~50% change to becoming infection yourself from the member.

Are none of you vaccinated? Because any of you being jabbed reduces that risk significantly.

Plenty of people in very close quarters with positive cases and not getting in.

[TheTeapot]

11 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

I know it will take some time to live this down, and I can live with raised eyebrows.

I refer you to this graph again or to wrightys post earlier saying an outbreak this size would have been about 80 patients. You are missing or vastly underestimating the vaccine effect. I don't think telling vaccinated people to shield is at all helpful, in fact I think it's straight up wrong. 

 

 

 

[offshoremanxman]

6 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

Are none of you vaccinated? Because any of you being jabbed reduces that risk significantly.

Some people seem to want to hang on to the covid emergency and the Cassandra-like warnings for as long as possible as underlines the social media notoriety it’s brought them. Even Rachel Glover seems to be hanging on by her fingertips to the doom predictions as it feeds the audience she’s acquired in the last year and a half. The trick seems to be when to let go and many people let go of the fear months and months ago. 

[Strife]

2 hours ago, Ramseyboi said:

Good friend just contacted by her regular taxi driver (not 111) that he tested positive the day after he ran her from ballaugh to the airport.

Hey ho.  Wonder how many others he had in that cab in the few days either side who he has no means of contacting.

He isn’t ill by the way.  He was contacted by another punter who developed symptoms.

Has official contact tracing by 111 been completely sacked off then? And if it has was that part of the ‘living with it’ master plan or as a reaction to an out of control situation that saw a poorly resourced 111 service quickly overwhelmed? If the later it doesn’t fill me with much confidence that we are relying on anything but luck and hope that the vaccinations will in fact do a good enough job of stopping the hospital coming under pressure.

[cissolt]

1 minute ago, Strife said:

Has official contact tracing by 111 been completely sacked off then? And if it has was that part of the ‘living with it’ master plan or as a reaction to an out of control situation that saw a poorly resourced 111 service quickly overwhelmed? If the later it doesn’t fill me with much confidence that we are relying on anything but luck and hope that the vaccinations will in fact do a good enough job of stopping the hospital coming under pressure.

It seems like it's been overwhelmed but govt won't admit it.  They never revealed how many staff are actually on 111

[Ramseyboi]

6 minutes ago, Strife said:

Has official contact tracing by 111 been completely sacked off then? And if it has was that part of the ‘living with it’ master plan or as a reaction to an out of control situation that saw a poorly resourced 111 service quickly overwhelmed? If the later it doesn’t fill me with much confidence that we are relying on anything but luck and hope that the vaccinations will in fact do a good enough job of stopping the hospital coming under pressure.

We are not relying on “luck and hope that the vaccinations will in fact do a good enough job of stopping the hospital coming under pressure”

The hospital is always under pressure.

We are relying on the scientific evidence that is all around us, and the anecdotal evidence that so far everything is OK and not a single person on this thread has so far given a valid reason why it won’t continue to be ok.

[Cambon]

2 hours ago, Ramseyboi said:

Oh.  Look at that.  False info being posted to try and make it sound worse than it really is.

I knew it was rubbish and when asked for a fact check was ignored and laughed at.

Anyway.  Government have fixed it for good now.

Edit.  Bit quoted is correct. Cambons post was wrong.  My conversation with a close relative (who is actually quite cross that their family member is being included in the figures) was ignored.

I have been searching for a podcast. Ashford (I think it was) said it on the radio on Friday morning about 10:00 am news time, I think, but it may have been Mannin line.