Jump to content

IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

The information to noise ratio does not warrant a reply.

Why don't you just admit your models are a load of made up bollocks and your predictions are utter shite? 

Mystic Meg could make more accurate forecasts than your models. 

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

The information to noise ratio does not warrant a reply.

Seemed a genuine question, first time I’ve seen Immortalpuppet ask you any questions on here and you’ve just dismissed him, you really do yourself no favours whatsoever. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I tried looking at the model on Google docs but it’s all Greek to me. Today is day 34 if June 26th was day 0 or whatever.
 

The request was genuine to see if the modelling is matching up to the reported stats.

Part of the reason for my curiosity is around the shift to LFT and people either succumbing to symptoms and riding it out without testing as they don’t want to SI or they use an LFT pathway without calling 111 so they don’t become a statistic on the dashboard. 

With the above, projected hospital admissions may be one of the only visible markers if that’s such a thing.

Edited by immortalpuppet
Spells
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Figures don't add up again. This time, I cannot reconcile it. It no longer makes sense. Total cases investigated has only gone up by 85. 

 

Good to see see so many recoveries though. 

For the life of me I dont get the figures and how they never reconcile. And whats worse no credible explanation that stands up to scrutiny. Its almost like a hot potato that nobodys  willing to take on board . But yes great to see the recovery numbers .  

Edited by Numbnuts
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Cambon said:

Figures don't add up again. This time, I cannot reconcile it. It no longer makes sense. Total cases investigated has only gone up by 85. 

Didn't they say they were being updated twice a day now? You might have to add two sets together.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Today's bulletin from the Wonderful World of Manx Government Maths:

'Investigated cases': 3842 - 3758  = 84 (Increase in cases)

Active cases: 2020 - (2474 -  (1819 - 1280) [Recovered]) 

                        = 2020 - 2474 + 539  = 84 (New cases before taking off recoveries)

Official new cases = 140

As the last few days the investigated and active case increases agree - they then produce a figure for new cases that is this time a fair bit higher.

The 'recovered' cases don't make any sense either.  There was a bit of a backlog but not this high.  I can only assume that they have arbitrarily decided to change the recovered period from 14 days to 10 or less, despite no change in clinical evidence.

The increase in tests (96001 - 95308 = 693), is similar to what we have seen recently, though below capacity.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

I can only assume that they have arbitrarily decided to change the recovered period from 14 days to 10 or less, despite no change in clinical evidence.

That was my thought last week, the cases are dropping off a lot quicker than they went on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

No "The COVID 19 Daily Update Dashboard is updated at 3pm each day."

But in any case the differences between two sets of figures in the series should be consistent if you're just looking at the changes.

Thought I’d heard / read that there was also an overnight update around 9am. 
 

I like that you’re quoting the dodgy dashboard though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, The Old Git said:

Thought I’d heard / read that there was also an overnight update around 9am. 
 

I like that you’re quoting the dodgy dashboard though. 

6 minutes ago, Itsmeee said:

Well it may be dodgy, but it's the only dashboard we have.

But the Manx Radio explanation is complete rubbish.  It doesn't matter how many times it has been updated in a period, the figures should still match up with each other.   

The 'Investigated Cases' is a rolling total and the increase in it over any period (no matter how many updates there have been) should be the same as the increase in Active cases (after allowing for 'recoveries').  And it usually is.

But this increase must logically also be the same as the number of 'New cases' .  And it consistently has been wildly different over the last two weeks.  With the 'new cases' being a lot less except in the last couple of days.  And of course it's this imaginary number of new cases which the media look at.

What I find shocking about this isn't just that this is obviously wrong, it that it should be obviously so to any politician, journalist or Manx Care/DHSC worker who looks at them.  It's basic common sense, not higher mathematics.  Why isn't there more fuss about this or has everyone else just given up on expecting any sense out of Ashford and his minions?

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

isn't there more fuss about this or has everyone else just given up on expecting any sense out of Ashford and his minions?

Bingo! Yahtzee! You win the stuffed toy of your choice. After about 12-15 months of zero help or support from government, I know I've given up caring about it. Had 2+2 as have all my close family and friends. Done my bit and now grafting to recover significant losses over the last 2 years.

No loans to repay and when they inevitably try to claw back some of the Covid costs through taxation (direct and indirect) then I'll keep putting up my prices while the opportunity arises. After all with all the shortages and inflation working through it's going to take cash to survive.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...