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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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Can you guys start a separate thread titled "Jersey is ace - oh no it isn't" and leave this one to a discussion on IOM and the coronavirus?

...and I so wanted a long illustrious career at the DHSC   I run my own company so my involvement with the DHSC to set up and keep the COVID19 lab running wasn't exactly in the professional caree

I'll put a big disclaimer here that I'm not the person who decides who gets tested and when.  Saying that, I am a scientist who understands that if you test someone on the day they arrive and the

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1 minute ago, Neil Down said:

going out for essential shopping is leaving a loophole big enough to drive a bus through

Agreed.  There is no reason for anyone to need to go to the shops themselves in 2020.

If we are going to have quarantine rules they should be clear that you stay at home, otherwise what’s the point of a potentially infected person can wander round Tesco?

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5 minutes ago, trmpton said:

Agreed.  There is no reason for anyone to need to go to the shops themselves in 2020.

If we are going to have quarantine rules they should be clear that you stay at home, otherwise what’s the point of a potentially infected person can wander round Tesco?

Because they are making it up as they go along.

Who are these medical experts they are using?

Bert & Ernie.

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40 minutes ago, Neil Down said:

how's that going to work?

Its getting a bit silly

If the risk of getting it is only 1 in 2000

The risk of symptoms not showing by day 7 is say 1 in 100

The risk of passing it on is say 1 in 10 contacts

So, the risk of a returning resident passing it is around 1 in 2,000,000

Add track and trace into the mix and the chance of a widespread outbreak from returning residents is just so low that the current measures are way over the top

Caution...yes, hysteria...No

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Some scientists now thinking lots of positive people are being missed with the testing, and heard immunity could be the reason London isn't showing any signs of a second wave. If this is the case, the IOM are going to be left behind as NZ were, and at some stage they will have to let the virus spread through the population.

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Are we a lot closer to achieving herd immunity with Covid-19 than has been made out? It is a question which has been asked many times, not least because the disease has a tendency to fizzle out in communities where around a fifth of people have been infected – as has been observed in London, New York, the Brazilian city of Manaus and the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

The government’s switch away from a herd immunity strategy to one of full lockdown in March, on the other hand, was based partly on the assumption that we would need at least 60 per cent of people to be infected before herd immunity was achieved.

Now, a paper in the BMJ suggests that we may have seriously been under-estimating the number of people who have been exposed to the virus SARS-CoV-2 and who as a result may have gained some degree of immunity to the infection.

A team led by the Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge University’s School of Clinical Medicine argues that antibody tests – used to determine if someone has had the disease in the past, as opposed to having it at the present – may have been undercounting in several ways. Firstly, they are not sensitive enough and miss out mild cases where people have overcome the disease by producing low levels of antibodies. The tests have been calibrated, they say, on more severe cases of Covid-19, where people produced large quantities of antibodies.

Secondly, the team argues, most antibody tests only look for two types of antibody – Immunoglobulin G (IgG) and Immunoglobulin M (IgM), which are known to be the dominant antibodies in the body’s bloodborne immune system. They fail, however, to look out for another antibody, IgA, which often acts as the body’s first line of defence against viruses and bacteria.

Where tests have looked for IgA they have suggested a significantly higher level of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 than tests which measured only for IgG and IgM. In a sample of 1,862 people in Luxembourg, for example, IgG antibodies were found in only 1.9 per cent of the sample. IgA antibodies, by contrast, were found in 11 per cent.

In Ischgl, the Austrian ski resort which is believed to be one of the main seats of the epidemic in Europe, antibody tests looked for IgG and IgA – and found that 42.4 per cent of the population tested positive, a level far higher than has been measured elsewhere using only IgG and IgM tests.

In June a paper by Sweden’s Karolinska Institute suggested another way in which antibody tests may have been undercounting the number of people who have had the virus. They found that many people showed an immunological response to SARS-CoV-2 in their T cells – another part of the body’s immune system – without necessarily showing antibodies in their blood.

The hypothesis that we have been undercounting the number of people who have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 is based on limited evidence, but it demands much greater effort be put into trying to establish just how many people may now have some degree of immunity to it. We may be fearing a ‘second wave’ which our immune systems already have well in hand.

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4 minutes ago, winnie said:

Some scientists now thinking lots of positive people are being missed with the testing, and heard immunity could be the reason London isn't showing any signs of a second wave. If this is the case, the IOM are going to be left behind as NZ were, and at some stage they will have to let the virus spread through the population.

Yes there will be some herd immunity in the UK and Europe, doubtless. I agree with you

However the greatest thing we are seeing is that in countries like France and Spain the number of cases is now what it was at the peak (or so it appears to the untrained eye). Clearly this is not really the case. Add to this hardly any deaths and few hospital admissions

1) The proportion tested is clearly much higher so back in April there will have been 000's with it but not confirmed so not counted in the stats

2) The vulnerable are staying clear leaving the youngsters to spread it around

Why are we not doing this? We are going to be either sitting ducks or Island bound for ever. It time to take some 'baby steps' not 'No steps at all' or we are just storing up a massive issue

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20 minutes ago, winnie said:

Some scientists now thinking lots of positive people are being missed with the testing, and heard immunity could be the reason London isn't showing any signs of a second wave. If this is the case, the IOM are going to be left behind as NZ were, and at some stage they will have to let the virus spread through the population.

The anti-body tests would suggest that the virus has been and may still be in the community. It's just that some don't present symptoms.

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36 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

Because they are making it up as they go along.

Who are these medical experts they are using?

Bert & Ernie.

the ones they are using are not as qualified as Bert and Ernie...

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29 minutes ago, winnie said:

Some scientists now thinking lots of positive people are being missed with the testing, and heard immunity could be the reason London isn't showing any signs of a second wave. If this is the case, the IOM are going to be left behind as NZ were, and at some stage they will have to let the virus spread through the population.

You are probably correct. Both a work colleague, and my son had all the symptoms back in November December last year. For all we know and for all the use some of these experts are, we could well be in the second wave of this and our bodies are learning to fight it

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It's 14 active cases according to the Jersey gov twitter.

You can't have groups of more than 40.

The travel scheme is very complicated and constantly changing.

It isn't quite as you are trying to sell it.

That doesn't mean I think what they are doing is wrong, it seems to be working pretty well. 

 

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2 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

It's 14 active cases according to the Jersey gov twitter.

You can't have groups of more than 40.

The travel scheme is very complicated and constantly changing.

It isn't quite as you are trying to sell it.

That doesn't mean I think what they are doing is wrong, it seems to be working pretty well. 

 

If Quayle continues with his no easing until the U.K. reaches an infection rate of 1 in 5,000 mantra, he will have single handily destroyed the Manx economy & left financial carnage for the generations that follow.

Somebody, somewhere within that absolute disaster of a Government needs to get a grip of this quickly.

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3 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

If Quayle continues with his no easing until the U.K. reaches an infection rate of 1 in 5,000 mantra, he will have single handily destroyed the Manx economy & left financial carnage for the generations that follow.

Somebody, somewhere within that absolute disaster of a Government needs to get a grip of this quickly.

That's right. Because this isn't going to change 'any time soon' as he says. We can't hide forever, we need a plan and with the plan will come some risks. It's unavoidable. 

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