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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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12 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

The NHS figures have been published for the past month in England of people in hospital with vs due to COVID.

 

There's a  significant difference of course, but we mustn't lose sight of the importance of those 'with', as the hospital must isolate those people. There is further strain on medical services that goes with that.

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On 7/22/2021 at 12:26 PM, wrighty said:

You use a hospitalisation rate of 1.23%.  The slider on the website is quite granular, at least on my computer, and the neighbouring options would be 0.43% or 2.04%, with nothing in between.  How have you chosen 1.23%?

The real world rate we are experiencing now is running a little over the number I would expect from 1.23% at this stage from the SEIR Model. Though I phrased model in terms of unvaccinated*, which as we know is only thing which counts regarding getting to Herd Immunity, I was anticipating some seepage to vaccinated. My warnings to high-risk 2+2 to take mitigations has been repeated even incessantly for several weeks now. I assume in IoM based on UK data 'because COVID' admissions are 75% of the total 'with COVID' cohort (i.e. 25% COVID admissions are for other reasons). Think you guys in circumstances are doing a great job, newspaper presented a controversy (fair enough their call) but I see difference in view as move of a part of healthy discussions. 

[* I smudged public model because I choose to not be in a position were I ended up talking about mortality risk.]

Here is the latest version of the banner, enjoy:

 

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On 7/22/2021 at 12:26 PM, wrighty said:

The slider on the website is quite granular, at least on my computer, and the neighbouring options would be 0.43% or 2.04%, with nothing in between.

Sorry I forgot to say, you can pass the model parameters within URL, here is my original calibrated SEIR Model of the IoM Wave:

https://epcalc-ten.vercel.app/?CFR=0.000&D_hospital_lag=6&D_incbation=5.2&D_infectious=2.9&D_recovery_mild=11.1&D_recovery_severe=6.00&I0=1&InterventionAmt=0.33333333333333337&InterventionTime=37&P_SEVERE=0.01&R0=3.35&Time_to_death=32&logN=9.601368434322 

Where the parameters are:

CFR= Case Fatility rate
D_hospital_lag=Time to hospitalization
D_recovery_mild=Recovery in days from mild disease
InterventionTime=Days after Day 0 when intervention occurs.
InterventionAmt=The percentage of the shifted 'effective R' in relation to initial R.
logN=Natural Log of the starting susceptible population 
IO=Number of initial infections

D_incbation=Days after exposure in incubation.
D_infectious=Days after incubation are infectious.
D_recovery_mild=Recovery in days from mild disease
InterventionTime=Days after Day 0 when intervention is taken.
logN=Natural Log of the starting susceptible population 
IO=Number of initial infections

When modeling I do not fit the model to data. What I did was try to understand through the SEIR Model framework the fundamental drivers of the IoM wave. Based on the properties of the Isle of Man social networks, expected societal reactions; in addition to estimates of organic properties of the virus and known demographics, I calibrated the SEIR model. If the model diverged significantly from the real-world situation, I would not shift parameters to fit the data, but return to my original assumptions and try to understand what conceptual error I had made or influences I have missed. The purpose of the model is not only to provide predictions for the cases, hospitalisation and duration but also to get a handle on what is driving these numbers.

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On a separate note, has anyone been to the Southern Agricultural Show today. I was talking to someone who normally attends and needless to say they aren’t going. Low key coverage on Manx Radio. Though I could be wrong and it’s packed out. 

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3 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

Sorry I forgot to say, you can pass the model parameters within URL, here is my original calibrated SEIR Model of the IoM Wave:

https://epcalc-ten.vercel.app/?CFR=0.000&D_hospital_lag=6&D_incbation=5.2&D_infectious=2.9&D_recovery_mild=11.1&D_recovery_severe=6.00&I0=1&InterventionAmt=0.33333333333333337&InterventionTime=37&P_SEVERE=0.01&R0=3.35&Time_to_death=32&logN=9.601368434322 

Where the parameters are:

CFR= Case Fatility rate
D_hospital_lag=Time to hospitalization
D_recovery_mild=Recovery in days from mild disease
InterventionTime=Days after Day 0 when intervention occurs.
InterventionAmt=The percentage of the shifted 'effective R' in relation to initial R.
logN=Natural Log of the starting susceptible population 
IO=Number of initial infections

D_incbation=Days after exposure in incubation.
D_infectious=Days after incubation are infectious.
D_recovery_mild=Recovery in days from mild disease
InterventionTime=Days after Day 0 when intervention is taken.
logN=Natural Log of the starting susceptible population 
IO=Number of initial infections

When modeling I do not fit the model to data. What I did was try to understand through the SEIR Model framework the fundamental drivers of the IoM wave. Based on the properties of the Isle of Man social networks, expected societal reactions; in addition to estimates of organic properties of the virus and known demographics, I calibrated the SEIR model. If the model diverged significantly from the real-world situation, I would not shift parameters to fit the data, but return to my original assumptions and try to understand what conceptual error I had made or influences I have missed. The purpose of the model is not only to provide predictions for the cases, hospitalisation and duration but also to get a handle on what is driving these numbers.

? WTF.

Sorry Ben I am a simple man, whilst I am University Educated and hold a degree, I like simple information, rather than being blinded by bullshit (even if it’s true, it’s unintelligible to people who are not scientifically minded)

Good post but would rather short precis.

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10 minutes ago, 2112 said:

On a separate note, has anyone been to the Southern Agricultural Show today. I was talking to someone who normally attends and needless to say they aren’t going. Low key coverage on Manx Radio. Though I could be wrong and it’s packed out. 

No idea why anyone wouldn’t go to an outdoor event?

Police we’re advising of tailbacks before 12 so sounds busy.  No reason why it wouldn’t be is there?

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5 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

No idea why anyone wouldn’t go to an outdoor event?

Police we’re advising of tailbacks before 12 so sounds busy.  No reason why it wouldn’t be is there?

I only thought was due to Covid-19. I suppose all those MHKs who jumped up and down howling in protest at the current relaxation of regulations, are waving their Government passes for a freebie, and attending?

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22 minutes ago, 2112 said:

? WTF.

Sorry Ben I am a simple man, whilst I am University Educated and hold a degree, I like simple information, rather than being blinded by bullshit (even if it’s true, it’s unintelligible to people who are not scientifically minded)

Good post but would rather short precis.

I could not agree more, all people need to know is the following, and people can choose what is right for them and their family. I suggested to my 76yo father to 'Netflix & chill' for next few weeks and my 10yo daughter is going on bus each day (in a mask naturally to protect others) to a holiday club party mayhem for next 3 weeks. Which is the right setup for our situation.

 

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Long_COVID.jpg

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44 minutes ago, 2112 said:

On a separate note, has anyone been to the Southern Agricultural Show today. I was talking to someone who normally attends and needless to say they aren’t going. Low key coverage on Manx Radio. Though I could be wrong and it’s packed out. 

I’ve been. Very spread out but I’d guess the number attending is several thousand. Only stayed an hour or so, with queues coming in as we left. 

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47 minutes ago, 2112 said:

On a separate note, has anyone been to the Southern Agricultural Show today. I was talking to someone who normally attends and needless to say they aren’t going. Low key coverage on Manx Radio. Though I could be wrong and it’s packed out. 

It's not that busy, but it's very well spaced out at the new site. Shame about the rain. Might go back tomorrow if the weather is better 

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