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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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58 minutes ago, Banker said:

Wee Jimmy is introducing vaccine passports for Scotland , this won’t go down well!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58412832

 

I'm going over in October for a large indoor event then to a football match under those rules I'd need the vaccine passport but will our government be issuing them? If not then what do I do? 

 

I'm on a number of Scottish forums and the majority on there are against them. 

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Massive randomized study is proof that surgical masks limit coronavirus spread, authors say

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/01/masks-study-covid-bangladesh/

The researchers estimate that among a group of Bangladeshi adults in the study that were encouraged to wear masks, mask-wearing increased by 28.8 percent after the intervention. When tracked, this group saw a 9.3 percent reduction in symptomatic covid-19 seroprevalence, meaning the virus was confirmed by bloodwork, as well as a further 11.9 percent reduction in covid-19 symptoms.

…Because the research team was only able to document cases in which people were symptomatic and were seropositive for the virus, Ranney agreed that results may be an underestimate.

“To me this is the minimum effect of mask-wearing in a community,” she said. “I would expect the real effect of masks is much higher, given the limitations of how they were able to measure covid in this study.”

 

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2 hours ago, thommo2010 said:

I'm going over in October for a large indoor event then to a football match under those rules I'd need the vaccine passport but will our government be issuing them? If not then what do I do? 

 

I'm on a number of Scottish forums and the majority on there are against them. 

The proof of vaccinations is available & details are on the NHs app thread 

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12 hours ago, thommo2010 said:

I'm going over in October for a large indoor event then to a football match under those rules I'd need the vaccine passport but will our government be issuing them? If not then what do I do?

Stay home.There'll be better quality teams to watch on TV

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14 hours ago, Happier diner said:

It will go down really well with those who are vaccinated.☝️

Yes it will, it’s compulsory in France, Italy, some Scandinavia countries, Germany & Ireland in indoor hospitality so vaccinations passport requirements are growing whether we like it or not.

However protests in places like France have been growing 

 

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17 hours ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

Massive randomized study is proof that surgical masks limit coronavirus spread, authors say

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/09/01/masks-study-covid-bangladesh/

The researchers estimate that among a group of Bangladeshi adults in the study that were encouraged to wear masks, mask-wearing increased by 28.8 percent after the intervention. When tracked, this group saw a 9.3 percent reduction in symptomatic covid-19 seroprevalence, meaning the virus was confirmed by bloodwork, as well as a further 11.9 percent reduction in covid-19 symptoms.

…Because the research team was only able to document cases in which people were symptomatic and were seropositive for the virus, Ranney agreed that results may be an underestimate.

“To me this is the minimum effect of mask-wearing in a community,” she said. “I would expect the real effect of masks is much higher, given the limitations of how they were able to measure covid in this study.”

 

What's new, after over 100 years? From the Wikipedia article about the 1918 Spanish Flu  

"A later study found that measures such as banning mass gatherings and requiring the wearing of face masks could cut the death rate up to 50 percent, but this was dependent on their being imposed early in the outbreak and not being lifted prematurely."

Spanish Flu infected around 500 million people, and killed up to 50 million.

To date, Covid 19 has infected around 220 million, and killed 4 1/2 million. Could it possibly be the case that the imposition of mask wearing worldwide just might have played a substantial part in keeping case numbers relatively low? (Quite apart from the development and application of a vaccine.)

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This guy thinks its over. He's been right on a few things over the months so who knows.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/09/02/england-covid-epidemic-has-de-facto-ended-means/   (paywall - click link - click ublock - turn off javascript - refresh - read) or ...

In England, the Covid epidemic has de facto ended. Here's what that means

The exponential growth we saw in the 2020 waves, with more and more hospitalisations each week for an extended period, is no longer possible

Coronavirus cases are now falling in England, and have been doing so solidly for over a week. Barring some unforeseen calamity, this marks the de facto end of the English epidemic. Let me explain why and what that means.

The first thing to emphasise is that this fall is not the result of some special temporary factor. It isn’t that there was a week of glorious sunshine, the temporary introduction of a new set of restrictions, a sudden change in the testing rules or even the dropping out of the numbers of a previous shock that had temporarily raised numbers. It’s simply that the collective immunity we now have, through a combination of vaccines and people recovered from illness, is sufficient that, given the way we behave (eg more working from home) and given the time of year (August) the virus cannot find enough susceptible people to infect for its rate of spread to accelerate. That means, that, by definition, we have reached what is called the “herd immunity threshold” (HIT) – the collective percentage immunity, across the whole population, at which the virus can no longer sustainably spread.

Reaching the HIT does not mean that case numbers can never rise again. Some weeks they will go up; others go down. But it does mean that case numbers cannot, given that set of behaviours and that time of year, rise again on a consistent, sustainable, exponential basis.

The HIT changes with the seasons and with behaviours. So a natural thought is as follows. “If we’ve reached the HIT for summer with our current behaviours, that’s nice. But if the HIT will be higher in winter or higher if our behaviour goes back to something closer to the pre-coronavirus norm, doesn’t that mean we could see rapid spread again soon, within a few months?” The answer to that question is the key to understanding why the past week’s data tells us that the English epidemic is now de facto over.

The reproduction number, R, is now a familiar concept. The initial R (the R at “time zero” when no-one has yet been infected) is called R0. The HIT depends upon R0. When R0 is higher, the HIT is higher and vice versa. The R0 depends upon the time of year and how everyone is behaving. The relationship between the two is shown in the graph.

How the HIT changes with R0

You can see there that when R0 is relatively low (1 or even 2), quite small changes in R0 have a large effect on the R0. Even for the R0 of the original coronavirus we experienced in the UK in Spring 2020, of about 2.5, fairly modest increases in R0 meant quite a big change in the HIT. So, for example, the HIT went up a lot when the variant now called “alpha” (which we all knew at the time as the “Kentish variant”) arrived in late 2020, from about 60 per cent to about 77 per cent.

But above about 5, we can see that the curve goes very flat. That means that in order for there to be a material change in the HIT we need very large changes in R0. The R0 of the current dominant variant, “delta”, is thought to be about 7, on average over the year, with pre-pandemic behaviour. That gives an HIT of about 85.7 percent. Suppose that in summer R0 were about 10 percent lower than average and in winter 10 percent higher. Then in summer the R0 is about 6.3 and in winter 7.7. That means the seasons only raised the HIT from 84 per cent in summer to 87 per cent in winter.

And that is only half the story. When we reach the summer HIT, infections do not stop. People keep being infected – just not as fast as before. So we overshoot the HIT. At present, about 0.8 per cent of the English population is infected each week. So once we reach the HIT for summer, within about four weeks we pass the HIT for winter as well – long before winter arrives.

A similar principle applies to behaviour reverting to its pre-pandemic norm. The spread rate of delta, at 7, is so high that even if changed habits over the pandemic mean we are 20 percent below that at 5.6, the HIT is still over 82 per cent. So within six to eight weeks, overshoot takes us past the pre-pandemic norm HIT as well – well before it is plausible that our behaviour can revert.

Similarly, even if a more infectious variant arose, that would make little difference to the HIT. With delta, the worst has essentially already happened.

What all this means is that, because delta is so infectious, our having reached the HIT for summer constitutes the de facto end of the English epidemic. Specific shocks (eg perhaps schools going back this week) can take the spread rate back above 1 temporarily. But the relentless, exponential growth we saw in the waves of 2020, with more and more hospitalisations and deaths every week for an extended period, is no longer possible. There are still challenges ahead with vaccines perhaps waning and our adjusting to a new world in which covid is endemic. We may also face international travel restrictions for many months to come. But, in England at least, the coronavirus epidemic is now de facto at an end.

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7 hours ago, Banker said:

Yes it will, it’s compulsory in France, Italy, some Scandinavia countries, Germany & Ireland in indoor hospitality so vaccinations passport requirements are growing whether we like it or not.

However protests in places like France have been growing 

 

I was looking at a concert at the Liverpool philharmonic. As soon as I read the entry instructions, I decided to can it. I cannot be bothered with this Covid pass crap. It is completely ridiculous. Typical of little Jimmy! 

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35 minutes ago, Cambon said:

I was looking at a concert at the Liverpool philharmonic. As soon as I read the entry instructions, I decided to can it. I cannot be bothered with this Covid pass crap. It is completely ridiculous. Typical of little Jimmy! 

When did Liverpool move into Scotland?

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