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Jersey now approaching 100,000 tests.

10 active cases, zero hospital admissions & zero deaths in 10 weeks since reopening.

They are showing how an Island can control & mitigate virus transmission whilst allowing a ‘new normal’ life to continue.

We don’t even know who’s advising our Government.

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Can you guys start a separate thread titled "Jersey is ace - oh no it isn't" and leave this one to a discussion on IOM and the coronavirus?

...and I so wanted a long illustrious career at the DHSC   I run my own company so my involvement with the DHSC to set up and keep the COVID19 lab running wasn't exactly in the professional caree

I'll put a big disclaimer here that I'm not the person who decides who gets tested and when.  Saying that, I am a scientist who understands that if you test someone on the day they arrive and the

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1 minute ago, Nom de plume said:

I’m saying it’s uncontrollable.

The messages are unclear, people are not complying, the virus will not disappear.

We cannot stay in this state of suspension on the Island & hope it’s going away.

It’s not. We’ve got to find a way of living with it.

Well, you're certainly right about the messaging being unclear. One of the most serious problems this pandemic has shown is the appalling decision making and ability to communicate properly by global leadership.

And hoping it goes away is not sustainable either. So yeah, we do need to find a way. Got any proposals? Cos going back to SD isn't really a good option either. I'd like to think that there is serious work going on behind the scenes, I know we have a contact tracing team, I hope they've had enough time now to really know what they're doing, and how to do it. There is a risk, as I've said before, that our apparent 'success' may have risked an element of complacency, I hope that's not the case.

With cases on the rise again across Europe it is clear that the travel risk has increased significantly over the last few weeks, keeping it restricted with isolation is obviously the best defense we've got, but it's not perfect. I don't have the answers of how to live with it, got any decent proposals?

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2 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Well, you're certainly right about the messaging being unclear. One of the most serious problems this pandemic has shown is the appalling decision making and ability to communicate properly by global leadership.

And hoping it goes away is not sustainable either. So yeah, we do need to find a way. Got any proposals? Cos going back to SD isn't really a good option either. I'd like to think that there is serious work going on behind the scenes, I know we have a contact tracing team, I hope they've had enough time now to really know what they're doing, and how to do it. There is a risk, as I've said before, that our apparent 'success' may have risked an element of complacency, I hope that's not the case.

With cases on the rise again across Europe it is clear that the travel risk has increased significantly over the last few weeks, keeping it restricted with isolation is obviously the best defense we've got, but it's not perfect. I don't have the answers of how to live with it, got any decent proposals?

I agree with everything you say there.

There’s no Silver bullet to make this thing go away.

In regards a proposal, I think I’ve been fairly clear for a few months now on how we can move forward in a way that allows travel (for a variety of reasons) but also mitigates the risks of widespread virus transmission on our Island.

We have a live Channel Islands case study right before our eyes.

We have two entry points on our Island, this shouldn’t be a difficult thing to set up (in fact it should already be done & ready to launch). I would hope our experts have been in dialogue with their Jersey counterparts on the complexities & difficulties being faced before introducing such a policy. 

There is a halfway house, there is an option that works.

Nobody as far as I am aware is demanding we fling open the doors & let everyone in BUT we have to find some mutual ground, a compromise so a new normal life can go on with minimised (not zero) risk involved.
 

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7 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Well, you're certainly right about the messaging being unclear. One of the most serious problems this pandemic has shown is the appalling decision making and ability to communicate properly by global leadership.

And hoping it goes away is not sustainable either. So yeah, we do need to find a way. Got any proposals? Cos going back to SD isn't really a good option either. I'd like to think that there is serious work going on behind the scenes, I know we have a contact tracing team, I hope they've had enough time now to really know what they're doing, and how to do it. There is a risk, as I've said before, that our apparent 'success' may have risked an element of complacency, I hope that's not the case.

With cases on the rise again across Europe it is clear that the travel risk has increased significantly over the last few weeks, keeping it restricted with isolation is obviously the best defense we've got, but it's not perfect. I don't have the answers of how to live with it, got any decent proposals?

Well I know you don’t agree but I do think the Jersey system is working, they have a traffic light system so high risk areas including parts of UK have an isolation time, green areas test on arrival.

yes Jersey have some restrictions but fairly minor and trade off for more freedom and helping economy.

even Guernsey are allowing UK residents in on 7 days isolation and next phase will be similar to Jersey.

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8 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

We have two entry points on our Island, this shouldn’t be a difficult thing to set up (in fact it should already be done & ready to launch). I would hope our experts have been in dialogue with their Jersey counterparts on the complexities & difficulties being faced before introducing such a policy. 

Are you talking about testing on entry?

@rachomicshas addressed this:

On 9/6/2020 at 2:15 PM, rachomics said:

I'll put a big disclaimer here that I'm not the person who decides who gets tested and when. 

Saying that, I am a scientist who understands that if you test someone on the day they arrive and their exposure to the virus was at on the way to the ferry/plane, that test is going to come up negative because no test in the world can give a result based on exposure. The test is for actual infection, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic.

So let's say that we test everyone on arrival. We end up giving out a large number of negative results to people who are going to be going into isolation for at least 7 days anyway. Here's where the psychology comes in, and you'll have to ask yourselves how you would behave if someone said you tested negative for COVID19 the day you arrived. Would you stick to strict isolation even though you have a negative test result from your arrival test? I'd bet that there's a good number in the population who would be a little less strict with themselves because they've been told they're negative. Now, if one of those people tests negative at the border and then develops an asymptomatic infection, or goes out the day before they develop symptoms, then we'd have a significant community transmission on our hands and we'd be back to square one.

If we tested on arrival and there was no isolation period at all we would have a fairly serious problem rather quickly. It only takes one asymptomatic person to start a community transmission chain and we'd be back in lockdown. Just because this hasn't happened in Jersey doesn't mean that it won't. It means Jersey have been very, very lucky (so far). 

This is why testing on day 7 of isolation is a good risk-based compromise as if someone is exposed in the week before travelling (or even on the day of travel) there's a significant chance that they'll test positive on day 7. They would likely test negative on arrival and that's nothing to do with the testing methodology but just the basic biology of how viral infections proceed. 

 

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https://guernseypress.com/news/2020/09/09/regional-classification-for-england-as-virus-cases-soar/

Guernsey still pressing on with plans to move into phase 5C, arrival testing & shortened quarantine despite UK regional spikes which will be dealt with separately.

Seems they are making good progress in regards setting up this infrastructure & taking the lead from their neighbours.

Good to see a small Island Government be so proactive & forthcoming with their information sharing & regularity of updates. It must be quite reassuring for their people.

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Are you talking about testing on entry?
 

maybe Jersey are lucky but it’s working and they use a risk based system, the same as Guernsey who are investing to follow same system.

we don’t seem to have any plan to get out of this

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I was surprised that at that last announcement they didn't move to level 3, and allow a bit more travel. Especially for more extended family reasons. 

The traffic light system sounds like a good idea, but the reality is that it's overly complicated and changes every day. And as we've seen, the ability to properly inform is severely lacking. I don't have the confidence that our government could run such a thing, or that a large percentage of people could understand and work with it. I'm not convinced people would always be truthful either, especially with the recent change made to start splitting the UK into regions. 

Our government is being very cautious, arguments can be made that its too cautious or that its right. I'm still inclined to lean towards the latter for now. I'd be happy to try and get through this first half term and staying vigilant, but definitely keeping a very close eye on how Jersey is doing. There is a lot to learn.

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1 minute ago, Banker said:

Are you talking about testing on entry?
 

maybe Jersey are lucky but it’s working and they use a risk based system, the same as Guernsey who are investing to follow same system.

we don’t seem to have any plan to get out of this

Yes, I’m talking testing on entry.

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3 minutes ago, Banker said:

Some details on Jersey system here so it’s not fully open borders.

https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2020/09/09/islanders-urged-to-follow-travel-rules/

Now that the Jersey border's are a bit more relaxed perhap's our local plod can get themselve's over and nail the "Isolation breaker's" who visited our Island's shore with no regard's to  the Island's safety a few month's back!  Let's hope they are pursued in the same way as other individual's on our Island and treated accordingly.

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I would do the following, and i think most people returning would accept it.

Test on arrival and isolate until result - if clear you can go outside and food shop, but no pub, office etc. Basically you can go outside away from your property.

Re-test after 7 days - if clear you can go to office for work, but no pub until 14 days are up. I feel the pub is too uncontrolled, and on a busy evening you could come into contact with 30 odd people very easily. 

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22 hours ago, John Wright said:

There wasn’t a vaccine for Spanish flu. It just burned itself out and disappeared. Other pandemic viruses, polio as an eg, didn’t behave like that, and we had to wait for a vaccine. There were local lockdowns up until the 1950’s and 1960’s for towns with polio outbreaks, even in UK. We don’t know which category Covid falls into. Four options.

Lock downs, masks, social isolation, gamble with economy and mental health

Wait for burn out - which may never come

Wait for vaccine - hope it’s effective

Get on with life, taking precautions to ensure safety of vulnerable and elderly ( short of lock down for them ) and being risk aware and ensuring medical facilities are not overwhelmed. Lock down any hot spots.

I think we have to move to the get on with life, sooner rather than later, with burn out and vaccine being possible assistance.

 

1 hour ago, Nom de plume said:

I’m saying it’s uncontrollable. The messages are unclear, people are not complying, the virus will not disappear. We cannot stay in this state of suspension on the Island & hope it’s going away. It’s not. We’ve got to find a way of living with it.

 

57 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Well, you're certainly right about the messaging being unclear. One of the most serious problems this pandemic has shown is the appalling decision making and ability to communicate properly by global leadership. And hoping it goes away is not sustainable either.

 

John Wright:

It is not correct to say that the Spanish flu “disappeared”. Indeed that strain of flu was endemic until 1958; and afterwards it was replaced by another strain (there is no point going into details here; information is easy to find online).

Deaths from the Spanish flu tapered away to the long trends of flu, after a couple of winters. Guess what, herd immunity and host-coadaptation kicked in.

And the same dwindling is happening with Covid-19 in the UK, as quite evident when compared with the common flu, which has been killing at over double pace than Covid-19 during the past two months (cf. attached graph). Herd immunity and host-coadaptation has always been the default and practical solution. But we are in our stupid bubble, courtesy of Quayle and Ashford.

I wonder how long it will be before there is a more general awareness of how seriously politics has contaminated and compromised the scientific debate. You know that some scientists describe the current policies as “crazy”. Here is what Dr Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University, has to say about it: “the norms of clinical reasoning are going out of the window”. It is what happens when post-truth socialists try to re-purpose a virus into a trap to subvert the institutions of liberal democracy.

You have not replied to my previous posting at pag. 282.

 

2001240410_Deathsdwindle8-Sep-20.jpg.b38b11fbef9579abaac041f1211bc214.jpg

 

955097233_TheCovidtrap(reducedsize).jpg.d6188e68c5cf92f321d34fddc9c18d92.jpg

 

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