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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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Just now, offshoremanxman said:

Expecting any form of test to be 100% infallible is simply unrealistic. All ‘gold standard’ really means is more reliable than other types of test for the same disease. It doesn’t mean ‘100% accurate in all cases’ 

I get that. It does seem there's quite a few incidents recently of people having positive LFD, symptoms, yet negative PCR, however. 

Maybe the LFDs are better than the PCR..

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2 minutes ago, Banker said:

Anyway out on town tonight & it was very quiet, the restaurant was about 80% full , lots of cancellations. The railway, bridge & seven kingdoms were very quiet  around 9.30

You must be having whale of a time using MF when out on the town..

Didn't realise 7K had a place in Jersey too..

Edited by NoTailT
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15 minutes ago, offshoremanxman said:

Even the BMJ states that PCR is around 70% accurate so this should hardly be a surprise to anyone.

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n287/rr

Did you actually read that?  It's not what "the BMJ states" it's the opinion in one reader's letter which seems to have based the 70% on absolutely no evidence at all.

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14 hours ago, hissingsid said:

The Alan Carr shows will probably give us a spike in a few days time a nice present for fans for Xmas.   Packed in the Villa with little ventilation sounds a recipe for disaster to me.

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Lots of masks 

Edited by snowman
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53 minutes ago, offshoremanxman said:

A systematic review of the accuracy of covid-19 tests reported false negative rates of between 2% and 29% (equating to sensitivity of 71-98%), based on negative RT-PCR tests which were positive on repeat testing. The use of repeat RT-PCR testing as gold standard is likely to underestimate the true rate of false negatives, as not all patients in the included studies received repeat testing and those with clinically diagnosed covid-19 were not considered as actually having covid-19.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1808

E51A9E5B-8E24-4B12-AB5F-FD6FDC599F7B.jpeg

Which isn't of course what you originally linked to. 

But the quote you give about "false negative rates of between 2% and 29%" (none quite the 30% implied[1]) explains what this figure is.  It's derived from a review paper of various studies all done very early in the pandemic, based on more than one PCR per patient  - in other words when the first test was negative, but a subsequent one was positive.  But these were all done so early (the latest only goes to mid-April 2020 and most are even earlier) that systems and protocols were still being developed, the wide range of negative rates tells us that. 

And those rates are only really telling us that, for the variants of the virus at that time, some were not detectable immediately - which we knew anyway.  It meaningless about how reliable any testing is nowadays.

In fact talking about the reliability of 'the PCR test' is meaningless in any case, because diagnosis is defined by a positive PCR test.  What we need to look at is the reliability of the PCR test as carried out in particular circumstances, with samples taken in particular circumstances and processed by a particular lab.  Clearly in some cases like the Wolverhampton lab this can be terrible, but that doesn't mean the test itself is flawed, just the way it was done.

 

[1]  You seem to have been misled by the 70% in the diagram, but that is only an example figure used to show how the calculations work and has no relation to the real world.

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2 hours ago, hissingsid said:

The Alan Carr shows will probably give us a spike in a few days time a nice present for fans for Xmas.   Packed in the Villa with little ventilation sounds a recipe for disaster to me.

I agree.

The low ceiling in the royal hall and low volume of air in particular will see them all done for by this time next week.

Idiots!! Going out and living their lives and having fun in (what is probably) the biggest room on the island

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3 hours ago, NoTailT said:

When I saw that thread I'd ruled out swabbing issue because I thought we were still checking for swabbing errors...

I don't think so.  I think it used special equipment that Rachel ordered and when she stopped getting the supplies, they stopped doing it.

 

3 hours ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

That's shocking but not surprising.

I suspect it is a swabbing issue. Funnelling so many people through one point puts pressure on the swabbers to get through as many as possible. 

They're not actually that busy.  I reckon over the last 14 days they've averaged just over 250 PCR tests per day (not all these would have been done at the Grandstand) it's actually much less than they were doing earlier on in the year when they have swabbed up to three times that.

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5 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

I don't think so.  I think it used special equipment that Rachel ordered and when she stopped getting the supplies, they stopped doing it.

 

They're not actually that busy.  I reckon over the last 14 days they've averaged just over 250 PCR tests per day (not all these would have been done at the Grandstand) it's actually much less than they were doing earlier on in the year when they have swabbed up to three times that.

They’ve stopped doing pre hospital PCR so numbers will be reduced 

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On 12/1/2021 at 12:59 PM, Will Halsall said:

Lawrie confirmed that there were 22 suicides on the island in 2020 (6 in 2019), I find that absolutely tragic!!!!!!

I do hope Lawrie and his team are sincere and really address this issue:

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/government-must-do-more-to-tackle-suicide-rates/

 

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25 minutes ago, Will Halsall said:

I do hope Lawrie and his team are sincere and really address this issue:

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/government-must-do-more-to-tackle-suicide-rates/

 

What can you do in all honesty. If someone wishes to end their life they will do it or find a way to do it. People who commit suicide do so for various reasons  - debt, lack of prospects, mental health and criminal activities (child porn). I would suggest extra funding for the Samaritans.

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Just had my first PCR test up at the grandstand . Bang on time and all in all a okay experience . Thats more than can be said for the poor girls doing the tests. Its very windy up there and the makeshift awning is far from adaquate. But fair play they were cheerful , bit of banter and efficent. Respect to all the testers . 

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2 minutes ago, Numbnuts said:

Just had my first PCR test up at the grandstand . Bang on time and all in all a okay experience . Thats more than can be said for the poor girls doing the tests. Its very windy up there and the makeshift awning is far from adaquate. But fair play they were cheerful , bit of banter and efficent. Respect to all the testers . 

Yes they are great staff, we could really do with testing capability at ports for arrival which would save all the booking, transport etc to grandstand.not that many arrivals from outside CTA in winter.

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