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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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3 minutes ago, gloverlover said:

The thing is that Bonkers and Bum Gravy in particcular (and several more of the Twitter daily frothing at the mouth brigade) before covid were people you might think were educated and sensible. Now you're just witnessing peoples tangible meltdowns and observing them literally gibbering into the void of paranoia. Its sad how fears of an invisible virus literally turn some peoples brains into cottage cheese. PTSD or some other form of traumatic psycological event as you say. 

I agree with you, it's turned otherwise sensible thinking people into howling maniacs. 

It's humorous on the face of it but it could be a serious longterm problem in post-pandemic life.

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10 minutes ago, James Blonde said:

In years to come academics will use the Isle of Man during Covid, along with New Zealand and Australia, as a case study on the effects on people of following a zero covid elimination strategy. I'm convinced there is going to be a lot of longterm damage done to these people as they seem to genuinely still believe that covid is avoidable and can somehow be controlled. A kind of PTSD I suppose after falling so deeply down the zero covid rabbit hole. 

I don’t think you can rank us with New Zealand and Australian anymore.

It was a flawed strategy but we bailed out about a year ago.

That has undoubtedly put us on the back foot compared to nations who just dealt with it, but it was probably the right thing for us to do I think the short term.

Now we are letting it rip and are still behind those who had a bigger health service from day one, but we are miles ahead of aus and nz who are screwed now.

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Just now, James Blonde said:

It's humorous on the face of it but it could be a serious longterm problem in post-pandemic life.

So many people are openly laughing though. Its embarrasing. And Alf has now firmly made it clear that he won't be playing ball with people on social media or elsewhere howling for daily conferences and mandatory masks. Some people are about to get very very disappointed that the fear ride is over. 

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53 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

No doom and despair here.

If what I have been told is true and if what the doomsayers are saying is true then we should all be dead.  But we aren’t , so it’s all good

39.5% people in their lifetime will get a cancer diagnosis (https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/understanding/statistics#:~:text=Approximately 39.5% of men and,will die of the disease.). With COVID I had 1.25% as the H rate in July, for this coming wave I have 0.4% (at present),.... The means 99.6% are not admitted. ONS has 1.9% report Long COVID. COVID is hardly 'doom and despair', and at for people outside these groups. Few hundred years ago the state would had done absolute zero until 10% population was in the box. And people are moaning now.

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5 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

39.5% people in their lifetime will get a cancer diagnosis (https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/understanding/statistics#:~:text=Approximately 39.5% of men and,will die of the disease.). With COVID I had 1.25% as the H rate in July, for this coming wave I have 0.4% (at present),.... The means 99.6% are not admitted. ONS has 1.9% report Long COVID. COVID is hardly 'doom and despair', and at for people outside these groups. Few hundred years ago the state would had done absolute zero until 10% population was in the box. And people are moaning now.

With respect, I will review your previous predictions and ignore this one

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9 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

With respect, I will review your previous predictions and ignore this one

The H rate of 0.4% for Omi, I am just going off SA data: The cases are what you can get a very good handle on, the H rate is estimated. But people naturally want to know peak bed occupancy for planning, so included this. UK PH already put out models with H rates of 0.5%, 1%, and 1.5%; which I think is too high.

h_rates.jpg

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2 hours ago, Ramseyboi said:

Over a week ago they stepped off the plane.  It is a week since the positive PCR’s 

[...]  Yet apparently there have been none since.

@rachomics said earlier that it was a two stage process on the Island.  The standard PCR they use doesn't detect S gene target failure (SGTF)[1] which is associated with Omicron, but they do a further test on a small percentage of positive PCRs which is used to see which variant they are.  I presume some samples are then sent off-Island for full genetic sequencing to be done.

So it may just be that they haven't done enough second tests to pick up more cases.

 

[1]  To quote a UKHSA paper from last week:

The Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529) genome also contains the spike deletion at position 69-70 which is associated with S gene target failure (SGTF) in some widely used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. Such PCR tests evaluate the presence of 3 SARSCoV-2 genes: Spike (S), N and ORF1ab. SGTF is defined as a PCR test where the N and ORF1ab genes are detected (with Ct values <=30) but the S gene is not. SGTF patterns can be used to assess the spread of Omicron VOC-21NOV-01 (B.1.1.529)

This means that not every SGTF is Omicron (until two weeks ago none were) and not every Omicron sample shows SGTF, but there's a strong association and it gives you a rough idea. 

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7 minutes ago, James Blonde said:

@BenFairfaxI would genuinely like to ask you this question. 

How did you get your previous modelling so wrong this summer?

It was bang on mate! I had 22 max bed occupancy. The GMP freaked out slightly more than expected so wave dropped off slightly faster than expected. Rest was as expected.

Having a handle on timing and magnitude of the wave, help with planning both at individuals and societal level. 

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33 minutes ago, Ramseyboi said:

I don’t think you can rank us with New Zealand and Australian anymore.

It was a flawed strategy but we bailed out about a year ago.

That has undoubtedly put us on the back foot compared to nations who just dealt with it, but it was probably the right thing for us to do I think the short term.

Now we are letting it rip and are still behind those who had a bigger health service from day one, but we are miles ahead of aus and nz who are screwed now.

This been gone over several times, and we got stuffed by JCVI anyway, but could held borders until 18th July when schools broke up and vaxed as many kids over holidays as possible. 

With NZ and Oz, the number of cases as least are clear:

 

IoM_NZ_OZ.png

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6 minutes ago, BenFairfax said:

This been gone over several times, and we got stuffed by JCVI anyway, but could held borders until 18th July when schools broke up and vaxed as many kids over holidays as possible. 

With NZ and Oz, the number of cases as least are clear:

 

IoM_NZ_OZ.png

Ok

Thanks

Goodnight

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14 minutes ago, Annoymouse said:

On the subject of figures, why does the IOM consistently have one of the highest positive test rates per 100k within the UK and yet one of the lowest hospital rates? Is it safe to assume we are just more consistent with testing?

To July we had zero COVID policy and got all high risk groups vaccinated. And though we now have similar cumulative total infections since start as England for example we have lot lower death rate because bulk infections occured post vaccination. I know asked about H rates and good point but do not have that data to hand. 

Saying that from July 2021, when opened up we have had higher cases as you said and proportionate higher deaths. Broadly speaking I think we adopted right policy, and certainly rather been resident in IoM during this period than UK.

cases.png

deaths.png

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