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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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45 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

You're making the same mistake, as others have, of not comparing like with like.  You're comparing the total number of tests (95,811), since the start of the pandemic- and which includes 1337 which are 'pending' - just with the number of current cases (11) rather than the total of confirmed cases which 380.  But a more informative comparison would be to look at the number of tests since the testing on arrival regime started on 1 July (67,090), with the number from that testing which have proved positive (44)[1].

This gives an infection rate for arrivals of 1 in 1525 or 66 per 100,000, which is higher than any estimates for current prevalence in the UK and emphasises the point that people travelling are more likely to be carrying the disease than the population as a whole.  Some of this will be due to those arriving having been in places with higher rates of infection (Jersey say 34% of current cases are from Red and Amber counties or areas) but some of this will because the process of travelling in itself may encourage infection and because the sort of people who travel come into contact with more people and so will have more chances to catch things.  As @rachomics has pointed out, this means that some of those infected will not be yet be testing positive.

 

[1]  There are also 9 positive cases described as 'Inbound travel: "old" infections no longer active'.  I'm not really sure what this means, it could be people who tested positive but said they had had Covid-19 (or at least tested for it) more than 14 days before and only tested positive again because they were still 'shedding' genetic material.

No one uses the total cases ever for calculating the infection rate, Jersey have 11 and therefore their rate is 11 per 100000 one of the lowest in the world 

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1 hour ago, wrighty said:

I’m still yet to understand how adopting a Jersey style testing based approach here will benefit our economy, given that tourism outside of bike racing is a very small sector of the economy.

The people who keep proposing this approach refuse to answer that question.

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3 minutes ago, Banker said:

No one uses the total cases ever for calculating the infection rate, Jersey have 11 and therefore their rate is 11 per 100000 one of the lowest in the world 

But I wasn't referring to Jersey's rate but to the average rate of those arriving and detected.  You're the one who tried to compare total tests with current active cases.

As it happens the very page I linked to gives a rate of 14.8 per 100,000 for Jersey itself (rather than 11), though I regard these rates based on a mixture of imported (and isolated) cases with possible community ones as a bit dubious.

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2 hours ago, wrighty said:

I’m still yet to understand how adopting a Jersey style testing based approach here will benefit our economy, given that tourism outside of bike racing is a very small sector of the economy. Perhaps it’s been explained somewhere and I missed it in all the squabbling. 

Many jobs rely on mobility so if mobility stops for much longer then those jobs will certainly be at risk. Most businesses can plan for 6 months disruption and restrictions on travel but it this goes on longer term companies are going to pull the plug on all sorts as they need new business to continue. If people in Jersey can be more mobile than us because of testing then those jobs will go to Jersey. Plus what extra risk does testing actually introduce? If we mandatorily test after 7 days of arrival we’re then dealing with knowns rather than unknowns when it comes to covid exposure. People are tested (at an appropriate interval) and then either know they’ve got it or know they don’t have it. So it builds a picture and tells people if they’ve been exposed or not. Equally my worry here would be if herd immunity is the best way out of this (as covid isn’t going away anytime soon and many carriers are clearly asymptomatic) as we’re just about the only country on earth where the population has literally no communal exposure to covid. If we all start circulating again a year from now people coming here could be like the conquistadors who brought all sorts of new diseases to Latin America. Creating an artificial (which is purely what it is) bubble makes little sense to me if a mixture of herd immunity and a vaccine is actually the way this all stops eventually. And most know it’s largely being done to trap people for financial reasons not really as a risk based solution to covid. Many believe it isn’t a proper risk based approach as they clearly can’t be arsed actually putting resource behind enforcing self isolation which you’d do if you really believed that it was the best way to protect the public. Me I’d rather be tested on my return, know whether I’ve got it (or not), so that I know how likely I might be to benefit from herd immunity or not in the future rather than living in an (untested) artificial bubble.

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Tourism is of course affected by the closed borders and the lack of a Jersey styled testing system. It is international trade and business that is being affected badly , but that is not yet a visible effect. However , continued closure with no exit plan might just do permanent damage to this sector. Time will tell and no Zoom does not cut it I’m afraid. It may be ok but the longer we go on with no real plan the more likely the damage will be hard to repair. Not impossible but very hard. 

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1 hour ago, pongo said:

The people who keep proposing this approach refuse to answer that question.

In all likelihood you won't. What you will get is the laughing emoji time and time again

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55 minutes ago, Anyone said:

Tourism is of course affected by the closed borders and the lack of a Jersey styled testing system. It is international trade and business that is being affected badly , but that is not yet a visible effect. However , continued closure with no exit plan might just do permanent damage to this sector. Time will tell and no Zoom does not cut it I’m afraid. It may be ok but the longer we go on with no real plan the more likely the damage will be hard to repair. Not impossible but very hard. 

Yes agree. So there’s at least two answers above. 

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2 hours ago, Anyone said:

Tourism is of course affected by the closed borders and the lack of a Jersey styled testing system. It is international trade and business that is being affected badly , but that is not yet a visible effect. However , continued closure with no exit plan might just do permanent damage to this sector. Time will tell and no Zoom does not cut it I’m afraid. It may be ok but the longer we go on with no real plan the more likely the damage will be hard to repair. Not impossible but very hard. 

Some easing of restrictions may just save some of the non government jobs at airport eg baggage handlers, security, staff who do loads factors etc plus shop staff.

all those staff are likely to lose jobs soon plus of course the taxi drivers who are losing trade

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