Jump to content
Manx Forums, Live Chat, Blogs & Classifieds for the Isle of Man
Filippo

IOM Covid removing restrictions

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, tetchtyke said:

You couldn't pay me to go to the UK right now. I've got a 10yo daughter over there. My parents live there. It's tough not being able to see them. But look at what they have to put up with in daily life and then look at what we get to do.

I’d be more worried about my (alleged) 10 year old daughter and my parents in the UK than myself and the IOM in such (alleged) circumstances. To the point that I’d probably be across visiting them right now as they would be more important to me than living in an artificial bubble because of a virus that kills such a tiny fractional percentage of people of my age. That’s 0.0037% of the UK population currently in hospital. Put your lottery numbers on. Your odds of winning something decent are better than that. 

Edited by thesultanofsheight
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

894 people in hospital out of the UK population is 0.00137% of the total UK population. I doubt the NHS is stressed by this spiraling “second wave” when 9,000,000 people are currently on state support or are unemployed

I'd love nothing more than for you to be right. However, in retrospect in A&Es in Liverpool we were seeing cases of covid mainly in young adults from late January/early February, but there was a bit of denial and no real plan on a national level. It was from March it got really messy and the number of cases at that time point was a huge under estimate, doctors were going through notes and binning swabs from people who were being discharged to save testing capacity. The hospitals were somewhat spared because everything else stopped, wards cleared of elective patients, people staying away from hospital and the protective effect of lock-down. 

The problem with the latest set of events is less likely to be the overall numbers as it was last time, but the insistence that the normal must carry on. The cases of serious COVID were stacking up, not huge but building steadily. I suspect this is going to continue and this time there will be no 'save the NHS' as people fatigue from social restrictions. As the number of asymptomatic cases rise in the community it only takes a few to go to nursing homes to cause absolute carnage.  There may well be fewer deaths than last time, as probably some of the more fragile population members have already died, as reflected by the below expected death rates in the last few months. However, I think this resurgence poses a bigger threat to healthcare infrastructure. 

I think the Island is lucky to have some semblance of normal life, if the borders are closed, it's probably a small price to pay. I'd say the Isle of Man has handled it really well and in the longer term, having kids back at school earlier, people back at work and resumption of the hospitality industry (other than tourism) will be protective. 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 4
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, benl said:

I'd love nothing more than for you to be right. However, in retrospect in A&Es in Liverpool we were seeing cases of covid mainly in young adults from late January/early February, but there was a bit of denial and no real plan on a national level. It was from March it got really messy and the number of cases at that time point was a huge under estimate, doctors were going through notes and binning swabs from people who were being discharged to save testing capacity. The hospitals were somewhat spared because everything else stopped, wards cleared of elective patients, people staying away from hospital and the protective effect of lock-down. 

The problem with the latest set of events is less likely to be the overall numbers as it was last time, but the insistence that the normal must carry on. The cases of serious COVID were stacking up, not huge but building steadily. I suspect this is going to continue and this time there will be no 'save the NHS' as people fatigue from social restrictions. As the number of asymptomatic cases rise in the community it only takes a few to go to nursing homes to cause absolute carnage.  There may well be fewer deaths than last time, as probably some of the more fragile population members have already died, as reflected by the below expected death rates in the last few months. However, I think this resurgence poses a bigger threat to healthcare infrastructure. 

I think the Island is lucky to have some semblance of normal life, if the borders are closed, it's probably a small price to pay. I'd say the Isle of Man has handled it really well and in the longer term, having kids back at school earlier, people back at work and resumption of the hospitality industry (other than tourism) will be protective. 

Interesting post. As I see it we are suffering from a lack of clear communication and statistics. Judging from posts above positions are being established and the people are looking for numbers to support their case, rather like the climate change dispute. I expect to go to the UK soon in my motorhome and will tour around for a number of weeks.  Being of a certain age I will avoid large towns and closed areas like pubs and restaurants.  Most of the time will be spent outdoors. This is a personal risk assessment and based on information known I am likely to be OK. I certainly feel I need a break from our environment after being cooped up for so long.

  • Like 3
  • Confused 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Neil Down said:

Eh??? I think you'll find the correct terminology is "stopover"

I thought you were a "leftover"....?

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, benl said:

I'd love nothing more than for you to be right. However, in retrospect in A&Es in Liverpool we were seeing cases of covid mainly in young adults from late January/early February, but there was a bit of denial and no real plan on a national level. It was from March it got really messy and the number of cases at that time point was a huge under estimate, doctors were going through notes and binning swabs from people who were being discharged to save testing capacity. The hospitals were somewhat spared because everything else stopped, wards cleared of elective patients, people staying away from hospital and the protective effect of lock-down. 

The problem with the latest set of events is less likely to be the overall numbers as it was last time, but the insistence that the normal must carry on. The cases of serious COVID were stacking up, not huge but building steadily. I suspect this is going to continue and this time there will be no 'save the NHS' as people fatigue from social restrictions. As the number of asymptomatic cases rise in the community it only takes a few to go to nursing homes to cause absolute carnage.  There may well be fewer deaths than last time, as probably some of the more fragile population members have already died, as reflected by the below expected death rates in the last few months. However, I think this resurgence poses a bigger threat to healthcare infrastructure. 

I think the Island is lucky to have some semblance of normal life, if the borders are closed, it's probably a small price to pay. I'd say the Isle of Man has handled it really well and in the longer term, having kids back at school earlier, people back at work and resumption of the hospitality industry (other than tourism) will be protective. 

Thank you Ben.  I think the big issue is for meaningful, properly interpreted statistics or none at all. For example, is a positive, asymptomatic test really a case? What is the percentage of CV deaths against other causes?  Is the cause of death correctly attributed?  

Tragic as it is, is it really right to isolate people in care homes who are nearing the end of their life, to be denied family but still yield to the inevitable from whatever cause? 

My biggest fear during lockdown was that my Mum would pass away having had no family visitors for months.   How is that humane in any sense of the word?  As it happens, she did pass away after lockdown and I was able to be with her.  That was the right end for her and for us.

On the other hand, a dear friend in the UK died during lockdown, no family visits, no goodbyes, but she still passed away.  I attended the funeral by Internet and each of the family who gave a eulogy ended in their sadness that they had not seen her, hadn't said goodbye and couldn't be with her in her last moments.

That was so sad, but at least she hadn't died from CV, I suppose.  But she had died alone. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Gladys said:

Thank you Ben.  I think the big issue is for meaningful, properly interpreted statistics or none at all. For example, is a positive, asymptomatic test really a case? What is the percentage of CV deaths against other causes?  Is the cause of death correctly attributed?  

As I understand it asymptomatic folks can still spread the virus.

So they must be a positive statistic.

Mind you Bozo et al will try any wizard wheeze they can to reduce the stats.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Gladys said:

Thank you Ben.  I think the big issue is for meaningful, properly interpreted statistics or none at all. For example, is a positive, asymptomatic test really a case? What is the percentage of CV deaths against other causes?  Is the cause of death correctly attributed?  

Tragic as it is, is it really right to isolate people in care homes who are nearing the end of their life, to be denied family but still yield to the inevitable from whatever cause? 

My biggest fear during lockdown was that my Mum would pass away having had no family visitors for months.   How is that humane in any sense of the word?  As it happens, she did pass away after lockdown and I was able to be with her.  That was the right end for her and for us.

On the other hand, a dear friend in the UK died during lockdown, no family visits, no goodbyes, but she still passed away.  I attended the funeral by Internet and each of the family who gave a eulogy ended in their sadness that they had not seen her, hadn't said goodbye and couldn't be with her in her last moments.

That was so sad, but at least she hadn't died from CV, I suppose.  But she had died alone. 

I think the problem with statistics is without knowing the method and the analysis, they are not quite meaningless but very difficult to make sense of. In the defence of epidemiologists, communicating this stuff is an unimaginable task. Case definitions are nothing more than a pre set criteria, i.e postive swab, or clinical symptoms. I think i't just the swabs and antibodies being reported. My slightly educated guess is all cases are under reported. The swab that goes into your mouth is only about 68% sensitive (IIRC) and there have been quite a few people who clinically have it, but there test is negative. Also, many just choose to self-isolate and don't bother with the faff of a test. Death are even harder, I think the UK changed the goal posts to 'within 28 days of positive test'. Death certification has always been a bit crap if you get a blood clot or pneumonia after having had covid, I don't think it counts, so again probably under estimated. 

I'm sorry to hear about your family and friends, I really don't know what the right answer is. I think a realistic and discussion with family members and whatever means most to them should be respected, but it's harder when other care home residents could be put at risk. I would agree it's not humane, we were informing families their loved one had died via telephone, it's horrific from every angle. I understand the rationale from a population point of view but I can only imagine how it would feel to be that family member. I think hospitals are being more realistic now and rules are being flexed a lot more but still, some people don't want to come to hospital because they wont see their loved ones. 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Gladys said:

, is a positive, asymptomatic test really a case? 

 

Well, the test is to whether you have the Sars-Cov-2 virus, so yes. It doesn't test to see if you've developed the disease Covid-19. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, benl said:

I think the problem with statistics is without knowing the method and the analysis, they are not quite meaningless but very difficult to make sense of. In the defence of epidemiologists, communicating this stuff is an unimaginable task. Case definitions are nothing more than a pre set criteria, i.e postive swab, or clinical symptoms. I think i't just the swabs and antibodies being reported. My slightly educated guess is all cases are under reported. The swab that goes into your mouth is only about 68% sensitive (IIRC) and there have been quite a few people who clinically have it, but there test is negative. Also, many just choose to self-isolate and don't bother with the faff of a test. Death are even harder, I think the UK changed the goal posts to 'within 28 days of positive test'. Death certification has always been a bit crap if you get a blood clot or pneumonia after having had covid, I don't think it counts, so again probably under estimated. 

I'm sorry to hear about your family and friends, I really don't know what the right answer is. I think a realistic and discussion with family members and whatever means most to them should be respected, but it's harder when other care home residents could be put at risk. I would agree it's not humane, we were informing families their loved one had died via telephone, it's horrific from every angle. I understand the rationale from a population point of view but I can only imagine how it would feel to be that family member. I think hospitals are being more realistic now and rules are being flexed a lot more but still, some people don't want to come to hospital because they wont see their loved ones. 

Thanks, Ben, I cannot imagine what it is like on the front line, but I do want to really understand the risk and be able to assess that against my own expectations or risk appetite. 

The locking up of the elderly is a case in point.  When this happened here, my first thought was what would Mum prefer, a month alive seeing her family,  or six months without, but with the same outcome?  Family have had no input to this, just a blanket measure.  I do understand the risk and would never have wanted to jeopardise either Mum's health or anyone else in the home, but you have to question what is humane and what is just convenient handling.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Gladys said:

Thanks, Ben, I cannot imagine what it is like on the front line, but I do want to really understand the risk and be able to assess that against my own expectations or risk appetite. 

The locking up of the elderly is a case in point.  When this happened here, my first thought was what would Mum prefer, a month alive seeing her family,  or six months without, but with the same outcome?  Family have had no input to this, just a blanket measure.  I do understand the risk and would never have wanted to jeopardise either Mum's health or anyone else in the home, but you have to question what is humane and what is just convenient handling.

 

Yes there have been horror stories of people dying alone every where.

a friend’s mother was dying in a care home here during Ashys lockdown of health and they were not allowed to visit her.

eventually after much pleading one son at a time was allowed to visit at the end for a brief spell but none of her sisters or grandchildren.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, benl said:

I'd love nothing more than for you to be right. However, in retrospect in A&Es in Liverpool we were seeing cases of covid mainly in young adults from late January/early February, but there was a bit of denial and no real plan on a national level. It was from March it got really messy and the number of cases at that time point was a huge under estimate, doctors were going through notes and binning swabs from people who were being discharged to save testing capacity. The hospitals were somewhat spared because everything else stopped, wards cleared of elective patients, people staying away from hospital and the protective effect of lock-down. 

The problem with the latest set of events is less likely to be the overall numbers as it was last time, but the insistence that the normal must carry on. The cases of serious COVID were stacking up, not huge but building steadily. I suspect this is going to continue and this time there will be no 'save the NHS' as people fatigue from social restrictions. As the number of asymptomatic cases rise in the community it only takes a few to go to nursing homes to cause absolute carnage.  There may well be fewer deaths than last time, as probably some of the more fragile population members have already died, as reflected by the below expected death rates in the last few months. However, I think this resurgence poses a bigger threat to healthcare infrastructure. 

I think the Island is lucky to have some semblance of normal life, if the borders are closed, it's probably a small price to pay. I'd say the Isle of Man has handled it really well and in the longer term, having kids back at school earlier, people back at work and resumption of the hospitality industry (other than tourism) will be protective. 

No surprise SoS is the only confused one then... 

Good post benl

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Neil Down said:

No surprise SoS is the only confused one then... 

Good post benl

I’m not confused by anything at all. Currently 0:0037 of UK residents (under 900 people) are in hospital due to covid-19 and nearly 10,000,000 people (15% of the UK population and currently over 30% of the UKs working population) are unemployed or on state income support because of covid-19. The cure is by far worse than the disease and will last a lot longer for the 10,000,000 now affected by a totally flawed covid response. 

Edited by thesultanofsheight
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Banker said:

Seems like every hotel up for sale, Chris Thomas was on radio saying massive economic problems in lots of sectors building up which may hit in winter months 

http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cfm?id=57747&headline=Big hotels for sale&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2020&cat=Business&fbclid=IwAR2Mdk41t9pyQQXKG8jyvxVnloW0BMk9sqRIcDitFhv8Q2cTXft88h8LPnk

Handy excuse for people to blame Covid for this Banker. It won't have helped but it is not the primary reason for selling up

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah I’m sure they really aren’t selling because they’ve got no chance of any selling rooms to any tourists until at lest next summer because the island is shut down. It’s all just a strange coincidence. 

Edited by thesultanofsheight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...