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IOM Covid removing restrictions


Filippo

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In reply to P.K. (Thursday’s posting of 7:19 am). And also to Roger Mexico (Thursday’s posting of 11:15 am) who says that my original posting (the one at the very top that started the topic of reopening IOM) was too stupid to have been produced by a human... Since the dawn of time new pathogenic agents have emerged, often jumping over from the animal world, and their natural course is to burn out over time, as human population builds up immunity to them. That is how an immune system works. Academics will always come up with the kind of solutions proposed by the radical left, because most of them are avowed socialists, and the few who are not have to fall in line to avoid being ostracised by their community (with obvious consequences for their careers). The truth is that there is not much reliable evidence that draconian restrictions are making a difference with this virus. The photo on the bottom was taken on the 21st of April in Hornstull, Stockholm. The graph below that photo shows the evolution of the pandemic on a per-capita basis in Sweden as well as other countries: you wouldn’t tell much the difference; Sweden has plateaued like the others; now Sweden has not as many worries as us about lifting the restrictions, because there is not much to lift.

My estimation of the fatality rate of Covid-19 is 0.2-0.3%; to be compared with the  fatality rate of the common flu, which is 0.1%, i.e., the coronavirus is 2-3 times more deadly than the common flu; though it is much more contagious: an R0 above 3 versus 1.3 for the common flu. Various antibodies studies around the world put a cap on that fatality rate at no more than 0.5% (New York’s being the latest, just came up a couple of days ago); but it is an overestimation, because from kids up to teenage years, the virus seems to pass through them as if nothing has happened; and to those in the range, let’s say 15-40 yo, the T-cells of their immune systems deal with the infection before any real illness kicks in, in most cases, and thus don’t produce antibodies; it is only the older ones that need an immune response that turns up later into visible serological antibodies. Thus, whatever figure you see published now in regard to the fatality rate, just treat it as an over-estimation, an absolute cap, and it will be become apparent later that my intuition is right. Please note that the original estimation of the broad population fatality rate was 3%, which was revised to 1%, then to “most surely below 1”...; one can spot a trend there.

For most people, the coronavirus is not a matter of particular concern, certainly not as serious as to have repressive long term lifestyle changes imposed upon them. The coronavirus can be dangerous to the very old or those who have conditions that cause inflammation in the body, chiefly diabetes and obesity (those two afflictions are the most consistent predictor of death in the not-too-old). Since those who have had type 2 diabetes and managed to clear it through lifestyle changes can see it restarted with just a couple of weeks of reversion to their sedentary ways, the advice of staying confined to one’s home is particularly cretin, coming from the government; stupid also closing gyms and other sport facilities to the healthy. The most economically repressive countries of Europe (the likes of Spain and Italy) have also banned outdoor physical activities such as running, because running on your own is seen as “selfish”. The filthy stench of socialism.

Here are some issues that come to my mind regarding the Covid-19 response on this island:

1) About one third of deaths have been in care homes. The government could have focused on isolating those as well as monitoring closely other places for older people such as retirement homes, which the island has plenty. Indeed the close environment of the island would have made it possible to build a database of elderly and others who are vulnerable to the coronavirus because of their health condition and then concentrating effort on monitoring them for exposure and keeping them safe (tracing and testing their social contacts, food deliveries etc); while leaving the non-vulnerable part of the population free to live their life as they wish. The policy of indiscriminate confinement of those for whom the virus poses little risk is plainly dumb; and you see it from the result. You can’t just sweep under the carpet a death occurrence 100-200 times greater than the other places I pointed out with my original posting (those figures are immediately available from several web-sites that tract the pandemic). The low population density on this island (in respect to the places I had mentioned) should have made things much easier. The fact that here the elderly are living on their own or with other elderly people, rather than within extended family group as typical of other European countries, should have made things much easier.

2) The inconvenience of the border closure should not even need to be explained. Half of the population on this island is British of UK origin, with family ties to UK countries. And business won’t be able to move about personnel. I wonder if air travel links will ever be restored to what they were before. It is a critical issue because many are on this island because they know that they will be able to jump quickly to London or other parts of the UK with a normal commercial aircraft when needed. The closure appears to follow the daft idea of eradicating the coronavirus on the island regardless of what happens in the rest of the world; a fantasy which only an islander could entertain.

3) The island has had in the past a problem with retaining young people. The lockdown impacts disproportionately many run-of-the-mill local business that employ the indigenous population of the island (thanks also to the policy of requiring job permits for those kind of jobs). Closing gyms and ban social events indefinitely also won’t help. London will always offer more attractions to the young and the UK government has much more margin of error to let politics screw up things. Things will always bounce back in London and the South East.

4) Some consensus based policies of this island may end up being strained; as the population is not not uniformly well off. That kind of protest can be easily silenced when unemployment rests below 1% (as it was prior to the crisis) and most people have good living standards; otherwise, I guess, a lot of assumptions end up being challenged. The lack of a confrontational and ideologically charged opposition should have offered the authorities the opportunity to deal with the incident of the pandemic in a more calculated manner. Instead, they acted cowardly and retreated to the obvious comfort zone of politicians. The island does not have a central bank that can just crank up the printing press to cover shortfalls. What it has got is a kind of currency board with limited seigniorage capabilities and then it has to run a more competitive type of economy where people are left to the satisfaction of productive work and making the most of their abilities rather than relying too much on welfare; in particular the government has got to balance the books as a must. In the longer term, the independence of the island may come into question if a different model is pursued or forced by circumstances. There is a price to pay for having that independence, for not having the printing press, but also an opportunity, for allowing an economic model that brings more growth. That growth need to be pursued and the benefit to be visible for the independence to be justified.

5) Normally I have better to do that hanging around the central streets of Douglas, but that is what I have done during the past month sometimes, just because the government was absurdly forbidding it (always on my own and respecting other people private space). The police saw me more than once and must have understood I was there on no business, I even smiled at them to make sure I was noticed, and was never stopped, never asked any question. What the police has done during the past month, running through a list of people known for antisocial behaviour and go and see what they where doing; and when it saw that they were doing the wrong things, lock them up with month-long sentences (just google the names of those who have been jailed, most had a prior record of something). That was class-based enforcement of the coronavirus restrictions by both police and judges.


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Edited by Filippo
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17 minutes ago, Filippo said:

 Since the dawn of time new pathogenic agents have emerged, often jumping over from the animal world, and their natural course is to burn out over time, as human population builds up immunity to them.

Or they just burn out.

To illustrate and to simplify: if everyone..that is to say everyone....in the world stayed at home for 14 days the Corona virus would be gone. (So would lots of people and blah, blah...but there you go)

 

eta:

Interesting post though, Filippo

Edited by gettafa
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15 minutes ago, hissingsid said:
  • Paul J if you think it is moronic to jail someone who is actually infected and has been warned about mixing with the unsuspecting public and still does....well :stupid:

I think you completely missed the context there Sid

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The thread is more a Mr Newbie (banned) type thread. Lost Login - a long time forum member who made generally decent contributions - was in the same camp but banned himself by writing his password on a piece of paper and eating it.

As I may have alluded to, we live on an Island. Indeed a community no less. Many of us have (genuine) friends and relations here, and in that, we care about more than just ourselves.

Filippo's post up there ^^ is a good 'un and gives an insight into the mind of a person looking after number one, and number one only although that might possibly extend to their immediate family.

Edited by gettafa
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3 hours ago, gettafa said:

The thread is more a Mr Newbie (banned) type thread. Lost Login - a long time forum member who made generally decent contributions - was in the same camp but banned himself by writing his password on a piece of paper and eating it.

As I may have alluded to, we live on an Island. Indeed a community no less. Many of us have (genuine) friends and relations here, and in that, we care about more than just ourselves.

Filippo's post up there ^^ is a good 'un and gives an insight into the mind of a person looking after number one, and number one only although that might possibly extend to their immediate family.

Unfortunately it's looking more and more likely that surviving the virus does not mean that you're then immune to it. Which means, of course, forget herd immunity that relies on it.

Also strange Filippo did not mention S Korea who appear to have got the virus under control by using testing and contact tracing without a lockdown.

Have to say hanging around in Douglas to see what reaction they might get from the police comes across to me as a very very sad thing to do....

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21 minutes ago, P.K. said:

Unfortunately it's looking more and more likely that surviving the virus does not mean that you're then immune to it. Which means, of course, forget herd immunity that relies on it.

Also strange Filippo did not mention S Korea who appear to have got the virus under control by using testing and contact tracing without a lockdown.

Have to say hanging around in Douglas to see what reaction they might get from the police comes across to me as a very very sad thing to do....

I've not seen a copper in months!  

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