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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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9 minutes ago, Banker said:

You wouldn’t know if they obeyed rules as no one is checking up on them as Howie was asked this question last week and didn’t know!

As long as they didn’t have face masks on & didn’t say they were over from UK no one would notice if they were in pub or not

Well except that people would probably ask if they came across a group of guys with non-local accents who they hadn't seen before - as happened in Tesco.  I suppose they could have lied and claimed they had been self-isolating for 14 days, but they might than have go found out in later conversation.

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Can you guys start a separate thread titled "Jersey is ace - oh no it isn't" and leave this one to a discussion on IOM and the coronavirus?

Ratio of admissions to deaths is not that different, testing is obviously out due to the massive capacity increase like just about everywhere in the world.    The current UK situation is impact

It's a safe place right now because of the Manx people, not the Manx politicians. None of us want to be "the person who brought it back" so we isolate and make sure we don't transmit the virus by bein

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1 minute ago, Roger Mexico said:

Well except that people would probably ask if they came across a group of guys with non-local accents who they hadn't seen before -

That's half of the IoM then, it's hard to hear a true Manx accent anywhere these days. 

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6 minutes ago, Max Power said:

That's half of the IoM then, it's hard to hear a true Manx accent anywhere these days. 

Used to be able to distinguish southsiders by their accent, but no longer so. Douglas has always sounded half Scouse, but now it's more diverse. Remember the old people who said qwhere instead of where?

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2 hours ago, Utah 01 said:

The statistics are crystal clear.  For the vast majority of the population this virus is a relative non-event.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/12/not-cases-covid-created-equal/

But everyone seems scared to put out any figures. Some people have suggested that 99% of the population gets through it. That means that 1% die. Convert that to our Island's population, and over 800 people will die. A much larger number will have been through hospital (or been treated in the car park, because of lack of space) and a substantial number will be left with "long covid".

Is that what you want?

None of the people who are arguing for "freedom" has any idea what to do to stop the virus killing loads of people.

Argue all you like, but until someone can come up with a plan that will work, we are probably better off doing the will of the experts who are advising government.

The Torygraph article says nothing at all that will help.

It is a commonplace of science, medicine and everyday life that in order to solve a problem you must first of all frame it correctly. If you ask the right questions, finding solutions can be straightforward. But if you ask the wrong ones you can grope in the dark forever. So having the right perspective really matters.

Unfortunately, the Government’s Covid approach has all the hallmarks of groping in the dark. In the name of “keeping everyone safe” we have endured local and national lockdowns, social distancing, masks, curfews, shutting cafés and pubs. Now we face further restrictions, based on naive modelling and virtually no evidence.

Our societal response doesn’t seem to have advanced much since 1665, the year of the Great Plague. Getting the framing wrong then cost many lives. If you believe (as people did) that plague is caused by corrupted air, not by a bacterium, you will take the wrong actions and make things worse. The authorities locked ill people in their homes with all who lived there, increasing overall mortality several-fold. Believing, paradoxically, that dogs and cats spread the plague, they arranged widespread culls, facilitating spread through a burgeoning rat population and their attendant fleas.

Funnily enough, Covid is actually carried on the air, so at least we have understood that bit correctly. But there has been a dangerous mission-creep since March. Then we were told a three-week lockdown was needed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed. But this has metamorphosed from the ugly caterpillar of protecting the NHS into the even uglier maggot of controlling case numbers. The wrong framing is that “case numbers” are being equated with “positive” tests.

What is a “case” of Covid? Let’s say you developed a viral cold last winter. Were you a “case” of a viral respiratory infection? On a theoretical level the answer must be yes. But on a practical, real-world level, the answer is no: you went to work and carried on with life. You were invisible to the authorities. Let’s say it got a bit worse and you saw your GP. Still no. You decided to take a couple of days off. Still no – you might show up in sick leave statistics, but not as a case of respiratory infection. If you got so far as being admitted to hospital with serious illness, you would show up as a “case” – a tiny proportion of those who actually had the illness.

The contrast with today is clear. Covid was made a notifiable disease in February, obliging all “cases” to be reported to the authorities. Since the only way to identify Covid is with a lab test, positive tests have been equated with positive “cases”. Back then, it was claimed there were no asymptomatic cases, but we now know that 90 per cent or more of people have Covid asymptomatically. A positive test is clearly not a positive “case”.

We also know that Covid affects different groups of people very differently: there is a thousand-fold difference in the severity of the disease between young and old. So the meaning of a positive test cannot be equated with its meaning in March, because the incidence of the disease at present has a completely different demographic.

Then there’s the issue of the tests themselves. Plausible false positive rates make up a substantial proportion of “positives” as unverified mass testing is rapidly rolled out. There is profound uncertainty around what low viral titres – found in a high proportion of young asymptomatic people – mean. Most probably very low infectivity. T-cell (as opposed to antibody) testing indicates that many people already have resistance to the virus. The more we know about this virus, the more it is like viruses we are already familiar with.

And yet, the Government is looking for an easy way out of the complex mass of restrictions they have devised; “control” the “cases” and wait for a vaccine to save the day. Unfortunately the former is a classic example of rubbish in, rubbish out, and the latter is unlikely to happen effectively, given previous attempts.

It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good. Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

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25 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

Well except that people would probably ask if they came across a group of guys with non-local accents who they hadn't seen before - as happened in Tesco.  I suppose they could have lied and claimed they had been self-isolating for 14 days, but they might than have go found out in later conversation.

You obviously haven’t been in a pub recently! Try Jaks on a football night & see if you can distinguish where everyone is from!

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3 hours ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

Look around you.  Jesus wept.

Data and link as requested please?

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2 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

What isn't true? 

  • They have the second highest confirmed deaths of any country - TRUE
  • Their deaths per million are higher than the UK - TRUE
  • The whole of South America is having a hard time of it - OK, not all of it. But a lot of it.

It was you who claimed Brazil had low numbers, which is incorrect. 

 

They do have low numbers really.

Especially when you consider the density of the population in some places.  Im surprised it is so low.

How do you explain India and Bangladesh? Or Vietnam? 

Looks to me like it isn't anywhere near as bad as the government makes out and it would seem destroying the UK economy isn't saving lives.

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1 hour ago, Max Power said:

That's half of the IoM then, it's hard to hear a true Manx accent anywhere these days. 

Well that's been like that for a long time - hence my adding 'who they hadn't seen before'.  An individual or two might just be some previously-unseen resident  but an unknown group with the same accent are going to raise questions in the current circumstances - and possibly at other times because we're a nosy lot.

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At a time when pubs restaurants have been closed due to the danger they decide now is the time to open up visiting to society's most vulnerable. If this wasn't happening in front of my eyes I wouldn't believe it

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1 hour ago, monasqueen said:

And yet, the Government is looking for an easy way out of the complex mass of restrictions they have devised; “control” the “cases” and wait for a vaccine to save the day. Unfortunately the former is a classic example of rubbish in, rubbish out, and the latter is unlikely to happen effectively, given previous attempts.

It’s time for the Government to start asking the right questions; framing things in the light of accumulating evidence, not unexamined preconceptions. On that basis, the course we should be taking is clear: asymptomatic spread is good. Advise and help the very elderly and those with serious illnesses to shield if they wish – but do not compel them, it’s their life, after all. And let everyone else get completely back to normal.

Yes - as many have said for months now. Shame that article is behind a pay wall as it might get wider readership. 

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27 minutes ago, Banker said:

December?  January, surely.

It's actually a very sensible idea just to get in touch with all the students (including trying to find out where there are resident students who they don't know about).  There's clearly a need to support students who will be coming back but who might not be able to self-isolate effectively in the family home, but also perhaps to provide extra support for those who can't return.  And maybe also to find out if there are those returning early because of their courses going all-online.

You'd hope DESC were trying to do the same thing.  Judging by their performance this year they'l  have lots of meetings about it but not bother to contact anyone.

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8 minutes ago, thommo2010 said:

One of my biggest concerns is nobody in power here on the uk have said what the plan is if no vaccine ever arrives. 

Eventually they will have to just open everything and tell vulnerable to shield otherwise economies will never recover.

Depends how long the money lasts and what’s acceptable in terms of deaths etc

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