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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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7 minutes ago, b4mbi said:

I spoke to someone in Jersey on Friday. 60+ cases and virus circulating in the community.

Dealing nicely?

It’s exactly what’s needed.

Protect those that need it. FFS.

You can’t eradicate it, you have to live with it - I despair, really.

Edited by Nom de plume
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Can you guys start a separate thread titled "Jersey is ace - oh no it isn't" and leave this one to a discussion on IOM and the coronavirus?

It's a safe place right now because of the Manx people, not the Manx politicians. None of us want to be "the person who brought it back" so we isolate and make sure we don't transmit the virus by bein

Ratio of admissions to deaths is not that different, testing is obviously out due to the massive capacity increase like just about everywhere in the world.    The current UK situation is impact

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5 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

It’s exactly what’s needed.

Protect those that need it. FFS.

You can’t eradicate it, you have to live with it - I despair, really.

I think you're not accounting for the rate at which it spreads, versus the rate at which it spreads as a proportion of the population.

Jersey have it in the community, but still have only had 500 cases out of 97,000 people. So, assuming that, they get 50 cases a day, they'd still need several years for it to spread throughout the population for it to be at the point where there is herd immunity. 3 and a half years if they're aiming for about 60% of people having it at that rate of spread. So, what do they do? Have everything at half capacity until then? That's just as unsustainable for tourism etc.

Bear in mind, the whole world is estimated to be at about 10% infection rate, and that's in the best part of a year.

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Jersey has a single hospital admission.

They are dealing with it very nicely & will have soon conducted 150,000 tests. We’ve given up.

They aren’t shitting themselves. They are pragmatic & forward thinking.

Edited by Nom de plume
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If we adopted the Jersey model, we'd all be going around as we did in lockdown. Social distancing, face masks, etc. etc.

Doesn't sound too much like "dealing nicely" to me.

Had my social hug yesterday. I'm happy as things are.

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Just now, monasqueen said:

If we adopted the Jersey model, we'd all be going around as we did in lockdown. Social distancing, face masks, etc. etc.

Doesn't sound too much like "dealing nicely" to me.

Had my social hug yesterday. I'm happy as things are.

You definitely want to stifle the hopes & ambitions of the young on this Island.

You’d happily live like this forever pandering to the minority, at the expense of the majority.

Very blinkered.

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There's an awful lot of consternation on the Jersey fb pages. Obviously that's always the case with fb and mad people, but there are a lot of unhappy and worried people there. 

Still, I think their approach is definitely braver and admirable. We should be learning from it for sure.

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1 minute ago, monasqueen said:

If we adopted the Jersey model, we'd all be going around as we did in lockdown. Social distancing, face masks, etc. etc.

Doesn't sound too much like "dealing nicely" to me.

Had my social hug yesterday. I'm happy as things are.

I don’t know.

@AcousticallyChallenged the rate in the community, given the large number of asymptomatic infected people, is much higher than the detection rate. It’s why the antibody testing results from July and August are very important.

@monasqueen social distancing with masks really isn’t difficult. It allows near normality in terms of going out and about. It’d allow travel. I’m just back from 8 weeks travelling around Europe. Compliance wasn’t difficult or unpleasant.

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3 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

There's an awful lot of consternation on the Jersey fb pages. Obviously that's always the case with fb and mad people, but there are a lot of unhappy and worried people there. 

Still, I think their approach is definitely braver and admirable. We should be learning from it for sure.

Ignore FB.

It is full of narcissists & absolute cranks.

Really.

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1 minute ago, John Wright said:

I don’t know.

@AcousticallyChallenged the rate in the community, given the large number of asymptomatic infected people, is much higher than the detection rate. It’s why the antibody testing results from July and August are very important.

@monasqueen social distancing with masks really isn’t difficult. It allows near normality in terms of going out and about. It’d allow travel. I’m just back from 8 weeks travelling around Europe. Compliance wasn’t difficult or unpleasant.

Me too - it was easy & everyone respectful.

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There are people in Jersey who are jealous of our position.

"THE government has moved to reassure Islanders about the spread of Covid-19 in the wake of confirmed cases affecting two schools and the Fire and Rescue Service. A sharp rise in the Island’s tally of known active cases, which has trebled during the past fortnight, has sparked fears that coronavirus is now present in the community, rather than stemming exclusively from arriving passengers and their contacts." https://jerseyeveningpost.com/news/2020/10/16/official-reassurance-after-surge-in-covid-19-cases/

"Border incompetence has led to this position whereas Guernsey and the Isle of Man have no such issues." https://www.facebook.com/jerseyeveningpost/?ref=py_c

 

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1 hour ago, Filippo said:

The issues related to current border restrictions in the Isle of Man as compared to its Covid-nemesis Jersey have already been eviscerate with such comprehensive detail in this thread that there isn’t much that comes to my mind that hasn’t been said already. Nonetheless, I wish to point out that Jersey’s border policy is sustainable in the longer term, ours isn’t.

Among the cacophony of Covid restrictions and lockdowns, revised and updated on a daily basis in the main island of our archipelago (quite ridiculously); here are two focal points of a factually-based perspective:

1) Covid fatality in the world is much less than people think and than what would be implied by our draconian policies. On the 5th of October the WHO came up with the truly alarming “best estimate” that 10% of world population has been infected with virus (1st pic below). World population is 7.8 billion people and Covid deaths so far have been 1 million. The implication is that Covid fatality is 1 / 7,800 = 0.13%, in the ball park of seasonal flu fatality. And note that flu is endemic and thus its fatality is reduced by heard immunity that has built up over a very long time; a virus like influenza would kill hundred of millions in one sweep if the world had not seen it before. Covid is this bad in an absolutely virgin population and hence bound to get much less bad with time. Its long term value is little more than cold (as with the four other cold-inducing human coronaviruses).

2) Countries in which the pandemic has been less politicised and that have adopted liberal policies, relying on individual responsibility and social distancing on a voluntary basis, have fared much better than the UK. In particular, allowing (or at the least tolerating) Covid to spread among the healthy and not too-old leads to lesser overall fatality because accumulated herd immunity cocoons the vulnerable and brings the pandemic to an end sooner. There is little evidence of a meaningful second wave in the two European countries that have had the most liberal policies: Switzerland and Sweden (2nd and 3rd pics below). The case of Switzerland is a particularly remarkable example, because it is a landlocked country surrounded by countries that had crudely repressive lockdowns and that are all now experiencing second waves. Furthermore, Switzerland is the most connected country, with greater traffic of people in or out than any other country around it. Isolation doesn’t seem to work thinking long term.

The scientific case behind the 2nd point is obvious and had to be expected from what we already knew about viruses, from the experience of managing a large catalogue of infectious diseases so far. I would suggest reading this paper published on Nature last August:
                        https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02400-7

Here are summary points of above paper: (i) there is strong immune response to a natural occurring Covid infection in most people, including high antibody levels and robust T-cell response; (ii) the waning of antibody levels does not necessarily lead to loss of immunity: memory B-cells can regenerate the needed antibodies when infection re-occurs (ttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_B_cell); (iii) strong T-cell immune response can endure long after infection and in some populations is more common than antibodies seroprevalence (and thus estimates of infection fatality rates from seroprevalence of antibodies are over-estimations); (iv) immunity does not necessarily prevents re-infection but it predisposes to an asymptomatic or mild re-infection in the future; and (v) some populations have robust cross-immunity from other coronaviruses.

We were told that herd immunity from natural infection cannot work, only a vaccine can give permanent sterilising immunity. But we know that there have only been a dozen of proven Covid-19 re-infections among 40 million known cases, and only one of them has been fatal. Conversely, just a few days ago the chairman of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, Kate Bingham, has admitted that, based on what evidence is available to her now, a Covid-19 vaccine is likely to be only 50% effective and not able to confer sterilising immunity (just google it).

Science books had to be rewritten to make the science agreeable to the politically correct narrative of Covid. Here is an example of the science prior to Covid:
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6841076/2006-11-Disease-Mitigation-Measures-in-the.pdf
a paper concluding that lockdowns do far more harm than good and that there is no historical evidence that lockdowns can reduce the death toll from a respiratory illness in the longer term.

More recently the Lancet published a report on the Covid policies of some 50 countries:
https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589-5370(20)30208-X
and it concludes that lockdowns have not been associated with decreased mortality from the virus.

We are seeing acceptance of reality among many US states. Florida, a state regarded by some as vulnerable to Covid because of its large senior population, has determined that it will no longer attempt to control the spread of Covid-19 and has removed nearly all remaining Covid-19 restrictions:
Florida Governor Removes COVID-19 Restrictions on Restaurants, Bars
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2020-09-25/florida-restaurants-can-now-operate-with-no-restrictions-governor-says
With the exception of some coastal states with left-wing administrations (New York, California etc) the US is doing a Sweden by stealth.

The left has concocted an alternative reality version of Covid, Covid immunity and Covid vaccines (Covid vaccines don’t exist yet so it is easy to fancy them as convenient); to justify the lockdown and consequent policies of heavy government intervention in the economy; which, it hopes, will be difficult to reverse when the pandemic subsides (it is actually hoped that the pandemic will last indefinitely).

As concerns the strange case of the Isle of Man, I would not accuse Tynwald of malefic intent, nor intent ideological motivated in a meaningful extent, nor intent calculated as an equilibrium of conflicting forces as observed in Westminster. There has hardly been any public debate among MHKs about trade-offs and underlying assumptions of the whole policy; they have debated it nearly all of it behind closed doors; the public debate we have seen (in those Manx Radio interviews for instance) has been at the most simplistic level and focusing on specific aspects of the overall policy, such as the repatriation of residents excluded by the border closure or the consistency (or lack thereof) of IOM courts sentencing; rather than questioning the sanity of the main policy aim of virus eradication by mean of isolation.

The alternative reality underpinning IOM Covid response has two pillars: the first pillar is that it is so great that we are a separate jurisdiction (a nation actually...) so that we have the option of controlling our border and shunning the dangers of the outside world, the horrible virus threatening our community; and the second pillar is, quite obviously, islander’s basic instinct: a civilised version of, as an extreme example, the Sentinelese throwing spears and arrows at any outsider approaching their beloved island, to express rejection of any alien contact (4th pic below). Guess what, just to stay on topic, the Sentinelese tribe is regarded by the WHO as extremely vulnerable for having no resistance to such common diseases as flu or measles, which would immediately decimate their population if contact with outsiders were made. If our border policy strongly discourages travel and outsiders indefinitely, we are heading precisely in that direction, of sickening inbreeding and vulnerability to pretty much anything alien, thus begetting even more isolation.

And the crassest expression of the above described alternative reality: that thickheaded constable (which I won’t mention by name) declaring on Manx Radio his “surprise” at the level of enforcement needed to discourage violations of Covid regulations in the isle; with his other pathetic subconscious elaborations to justify the enforcement of policies that have thrown personal values and individual consent into the sewers: “We didn’t really want to do it...”

Those are the dunces who are leading and controlling us. I have one proposal: let’s exile Howard Quayle and David Ashford to our alter ego island North Sentinel Island among the uncorrupted Sentinelese: the duo would find its most “natural” constituency; and we would be free to crack on with our lives.
 

2091079273_1.WHOsays10ofglobalpopulationmayhavebeeninfectedwithvirus.jpg.a6fefe718e670215cf610b143e5d1293.jpg

 

297283073_2.DailynewdeathsinSwitzerland.jpg.26fbf0bbba2655b2443ddf83b3da93d6.jpg

1926262569_3.DailynewdeathsinSweden.jpg.cabc6162919bc2281a0eafeff57baaac.jpg

 

379763750_4.TheSentineleseattackanyonewhoenterstheirterritory.jpg.a63cdb78135d57a9e1ba9cc1abb3b160.jpg

 

Sentinel Island is quite an extreme example. Perhaps too much on an islander also for Quayle and Ashford. Though I wouldn't mind exiling them.

The point is, however, how much we are more vulnerable to respiratory illnesses for living in a island in respect to more naturally connected places; central European countries for instance. It is quite evident that in Germany the virus has been less deadly. And certain Indian mega-cities had very low Covid-19 infection fatality rates. I think commentators tend to overestimate the effect that government intervention had on the pandemic. Sweden by the way is slightly more urbanized than the UK.

Keeping the border shut wont help with boosting our immunity. And isolation begets more isolation.

Both Filippo and the poster just above, Debbie, pointed out how little IOM policy has been debated in public. The government position has always been, simply, this is an horrible illness, stopping is an absolute must, we will do whatever is necessary; hence travel is shut down or strongly discouraged indefinitely.

People may think that the trade-offs are being discussed so extensively in the UK press that there is little more we can add to the debate at a local level. The reality is that the border restrictions have specific and frankly critical implications for this island; in the medium and longer term. The growth and the prosperity doesn’t come from the retiree population. I have colleagues and friends, all in the age range 30-60, and not one of them can contemplate these travel restrictions lasting much longer. Not one!

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1 hour ago, Foot Loose said:

 

. Sweden by the way is slightly more urbanized than the UK.!

Sweden has larger land area ( almost double ) and much smaller population than UK ( 1/8th or 12% ).

It’s much less urbanised.

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38 minutes ago, John Wright said:

 

@monasqueen social distancing with masks really isn’t difficult. It allows near normality in terms of going out and about. It’d allow travel. I’m just back from 8 weeks travelling around Europe. Compliance wasn’t difficult or unpleasant.

You aren't going to be one of those queueing outside tesco in January though.

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