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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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1 hour ago, thesultanofsheight said:
2 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

But (simplifying madly) even that would mean in a family of four, if one arrived from across with the virus they would have a roughly 50% chance of infecting one of the others.  If you're trying to keep the virus completely out of the community, those aren't great odds.

That doesn’t make sense. 

I was probably over-simplifying far to much but the underlying idea is that if someone who lives with an infected person has a 16% chance of catching it, then if there are three people living with them the second and third also have a 16% chance each, so (simplifying) the chance of someone getting it is 3 x 16% = 48% ie about half.

Actually it's a bit less, because the probability of at least one of the three getting it is 100% - (84% x 84% x 84%) = 41%, but the exact figures don't really matter, the basic point is the commonsense one that the more people there are to be infected, the more likely one of them will be. 

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1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

It's actually that much of an anomaly - it's the difference with the average of the five preceding years after all, not the absolute value, which probably fell by less than 20%.  The two surrounding weeks will have risen correspondingly.

I suspect it's exaggerated this year because the August Bank Holiday may have fallen in a different numbered week from what it normally does and the ONS will be comparing a four day Week 37 (say) with the average of five five day ones.

It's actually a lot of an anomaly, even if it is a comparison of an actual 4 day week with an average of 5 days you would be able to explain only a 20% or thereabouts deviation, surely?

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7 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

I was probably over-simplifying far to much but the underlying idea is that if someone who lives with an infected person has a 16% chance of catching it, then if there are three people living with them the second and third also have a 16% chance each, so (simplifying) the chance of someone getting it is 3 x 16% = 48% ie about half.

Actually it's a bit less, because the probability of at least one of the three getting it is 100% - (84% x 84% x 84%) = 41%, but the exact figures don't really matter, the basic point is the commonsense one that the more people there are to be infected, the more likely one of them will be. 

That's really not how those percentages work. 

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10 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

No it isn't I'm afraid.  COVID-19 is thought to spread mainly through the respiratory route (both droplet and aerosol), after an infected person coughs, sneezes, sings, talks or breathes. Of course the nearer you are to an infected person and longer you are near to them, the more likely you are catch it that way.  And it is also possible to catch it from contact, but the main route is through droplets/aerosols.

The quote misses off snogging and shagging. 

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Well, just been doorstepped. A nice Eastern European guy and a pleasant Irish lady with a clip board of names and addresses.

Apparently the names are randomly generated each morning and hand written on the form.

They didn’t ask to see any ID.

Apparently they’ve got 1600 in quarantine on the list.

Ive got 48 hours to go.

And of course it’s not 14 days. It expires at midday on the 14th day. It can be as much as 13.5 days or as little as 12.5 days. Day of arrival counts as day one. So arriving at 23.59 day one only lasts a minute.

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7 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

I'm sure it'll come with a rigorous safety study and an accurate Patient Information Leaflet. 

There was something about this on Sky News last night. They've been injecting students including a 20yr old now based in UK for studies who was interviewed. So their guinea pigs are clearly free-range.

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