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IOM Covid removing restrictions


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54 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

There will be a lot of damage, but how much of it will be avoidable?  If the travel trade is being hit by borders being closed, if they then are opened you can't force people to take holidays.  And they will be even less likely to do so if outbreaks of Covid intensify.  This is all magical thinking - if we pretend the virus isn't there it will vanish.  It's not true I'm afraid.

 

Not many are magical thinkers, just thinking that the trick is to live with the virus rather than, falsely, expect to eradicate it.

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Can you guys start a separate thread titled "Jersey is ace - oh no it isn't" and leave this one to a discussion on IOM and the coronavirus?

It's a safe place right now because of the Manx people, not the Manx politicians. None of us want to be "the person who brought it back" so we isolate and make sure we don't transmit the virus by bein

Ratio of admissions to deaths is not that different, testing is obviously out due to the massive capacity increase like just about everywhere in the world.    The current UK situation is impact

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1 hour ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

Are there really that many people leaving or desperate to leave? I suspect not.

Where are all the people that are selling moving to? with a so called shortage of housing or the Government are telling us, look at any Estate agent's window and the amount of property sold is unbelievable, the Island is not that buoyant to afford everyone upgrading. Banks are not that keen on giving out short term inflated mortgages. I do think that the bubble will burst and there is going to be a lot of negative equity left to mortgage holder's especially in these uncertain times.

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51 minutes ago, Beelzebub3 said:

Banks are not that keen on giving out short term inflated mortgages. I do think that the bubble will burst and there is going to be a lot of negative equity left to mortgage holder's especially in these uncertain times.

In summer, the BoE were adamant almost that negative interest rates were not on the horizon. This weekend, speculation in the finance press is again that serious consideration will now have to be given. 

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2 hours ago, Gladys said:

Not many are magical thinkers, just thinking that the trick is to live with the virus rather than, falsely, expect to eradicate it.

There's an interesting article in The (UK) Independent about how long epidemics and pandemics can be expected to last, which ends up with "Despite humanity knowing more about coronavirus than in January, conversations are still plagued with uncertainties. Who knows if and when a viable vaccine will become available in the near future, and if it doesn’t, how long the pandemic will last? Past epidemics and pandemics show that it can take years for viruses to no longer pose a threat, with some remaining in circulation to the present day."

Doesn't give much hope for a quick ending... 

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1 hour ago, Beelzebub3 said:

Where are all the people that are selling moving to? with a so called shortage of housing or the Government are telling us, look at any Estate agent's window and the amount of property sold is unbelievable, the Island is not that buoyant to afford everyone upgrading. Banks are not that keen on giving out short term inflated mortgages. I do think that the bubble will burst and there is going to be a lot of negative equity left to mortgage holder's especially in these uncertain times.

Not really.

Negative equity isn't massively important really. It's simply a mental thing.  Most people buying houses do so over 25 years.  You are behind on day 1

Properties are sold because people are buying houses.  First time buyers.  Movers moving up the ladder.  Investors.

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4 hours ago, Lxxx said:

Surgeons wear masks as they are dealing with open wounds, pretty basic observation.

I'm not saying masks make you ill, I'm saying the efficacy for everyday use here on the island is debatable. However if you already have a sub optimal respiratory system it absolutely wouldn't do you any good at all to be covering your mouth and nose for long periods. As evidenced by the fact people with those kind of concerns are advised not to wear them and are justifiably exempt from their use on public transport. 

Well, their efficacy on the island is currently a moot point, we don't have any COVID in the community so the odds of you catching it with or without a mask are fairly slim. I agree with you that we don't need them at present.

Equally, I can see why with an outbreak starting to spread there would be some form of mandate or suggestion to wear them.

I think some of the older folks are understandably, if not excessively concerned about what they could pick up out and about. But equally, some of them are liable to be finished off by a bout of flu, so you can understand it.

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3 hours ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

it's a shame more don't follow your lead then perhaps the rest could get on with it.

I'm coming around to entertaining this way of dealing with the pandemic. But worryingly, it's also equally dependent on the fit and healthy- those who would appear to be less at risk of serious illness and without comorbidities, getting on message, doing their bit to protect the vulnerable and the just plain fearful. Judging by the examples of shouty, capricious intolerance displayed against the restrictions, lockdowns etc, on here and other social media nationwide, there's an element of society; the ignorant and the bold, who in my opinion plainly can't be trusted to keep to their side of the bargain. And therein lies the rub...

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1 hour ago, Apple said:

In summer, the BoE were adamant almost that negative interest rates were not on the horizon. This weekend, speculation in the finance press is again that serious consideration will now have to be given. 

Negative interest rates are a given. The BoE last week asked all banks what the impact would be on their technology should they move in that direction. Not sure how mortgages can go much lower but savings accounts certainly won't be worth having soon.

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21 minutes ago, quilp said:

I'm coming around to entertaining this way of dealing with the pandemic. But worryingly, it's also equally dependent on the fit and healthy- those who would appear to be less at risk of serious illness and without comorbidities, getting on message, doing their bit to protect the vulnerable and the just plain fearful. Judging by the examples of shouty, capricious intolerance displayed against the restrictions, lockdowns etc, on here and other social media nationwide, there's an element of society; the ignorant and the bold, who in my opinion plainly can't be trusted to keep to their side of the bargain. And therein lies the rub...

There's a big problem, certainly in the Uk, with more and more people rebelling simply because their livelihoods are being taken away and they have had enough.

It appears at the moment thebonly strategy the Uk govt has (in light of their being no vaccine in the near future) is to let it work it's way through the population via a time period and in and out of lockdowns.

That's going to end in tears.

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1 minute ago, Lxxx said:

Negative interest rates are a given. The BoE last week asked all banks what the impact would be on their technology should they move in that direction. Not sure how mortgages can go much lower but savings accounts certainly won't be worth having soon.

it won't have much impact on banks for several reasons. 

They have a huge slug of fixed rate mortgages, any tracker or base rate linked mortgages have a condition that stops at zero (in relation to linking) and they'll charge for holding deposits.

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2 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

There's a big problem, certainly in the Uk, with more and more people rebelling simply because their livelihoods are being taken away and they have had enough.

It appears at the moment thebonly strategy the Uk govt has (in light of their being no vaccine in the near future) is to let it work it's way through the population via a time period and in and out of lockdowns.

That's going to end in tears.

It's also unfortunately necessary. You can't destroy livelihoods by the million and not expect a response, we're not talking about a deadly pandemic here. It might be fatal for a tiny fraction of people, but a government's responsibility is to oversee everyone and a life lost to suicide/poverty/mental illness/cancer/any number of otherwise preventable deaths, is worth no less than one lost to Covid.

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5 minutes ago, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

it won't have much impact on banks for several reasons. 

They have a huge slug of fixed rate mortgages, any tracker or base rate linked mortgages have a condition that stops at zero (in relation to linking) and they'll charge for holding deposits.

The concerns were more centred around the IT systems. Probably akin to the Y2K panic that never was.

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5 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

The concerns were more centred around the IT systems. Probably akin to the Y2K panic that never was.

Yeh. I get that. But it is a panic over nothing.  The mortgage side won't be an issue and it is easy enough to put negative rates into savings.  Banks in a number of places (including here) have done it already.

I don’t think BoE are doing the right thing if they go to negative.

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15 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

Negative interest rates are a given. The BoE last week asked all banks what the impact would be on their technology should they move in that direction. Not sure how mortgages can go much lower but savings accounts certainly won't be worth having soon.

If negative interest rates are invoked (and that’s probable) I’d say that will come about in the first quarter of 2021.

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8 minutes ago, Lxxx said:

It's also unfortunately necessary. You can't destroy livelihoods by the million and not expect a response, we're not talking about a deadly pandemic here. It might be fatal for a tiny fraction of people, but a government's responsibility is to oversee everyone and a life lost to suicide/poverty/mental illness/cancer/any number of otherwise preventable deaths, is worth no less than one lost to Covid.

yes, but negative rates are going to make very little difference at all to borrowers. 0.10%.  That's it.

By charging people with cash (especially lots of cash) they'll simply fuel equity and property markets.  Which does little for the man in the street.

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