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17 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said:

With infections rates in universities recently seven times the rate for Joe Public in the UK - it is a pretty valid concern that the student return should be policed more vigilantly...especially as people are being jailed every week here for breaching regulations.

It's a simple matter of increased probability given the numbers returning.

It isn’t really. It’s the Comis Hotel happening all over again though isn’t it? A load of spitting, screaming, hysterical pitchfork wavers bullying government into taking completely unneeded civil liberty stripping action because their they’re irrationally crapping their pants. I would imagine most students will be very sensible as they will just be happy to get back. And as AC days above a lot of them will have probably had it by then anyway. 

Edited by thesultanofsheight
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6 hours ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

There were cases here in key workers who were still detectable for COVID RNA for weeks to months after their initial test.

Data set quoted have examples of people had detectable COVID after 68 days, but I have no idea how infectious they are. Such judgements is why government should be soliciting views of people like Dr Rachel Glover. We are sold idea that DHSC had in-house expertise in PCR testing which I find hard to believe because here (and other similar small communities) medics refer to genetic tests used in various diagnosis as "special tests" which they send off typically to teaching hospitals (in Cities) to have analyzed. Not because medics here are not competent, but because we would not (typically) have sufficient demand for such tests to justify having a medic with the required skill set to undertake them. With COVID outbreak the entire world suddenly had a huge increase in demand for such diagnostic testing and naturally bottleneck in ability to undertake such testing will be availability of staff with prior experience. I expect Dr Glover would be the only person on IoM with such experience, and if MHKs want to reassure us, they should name the individual who will lead PCR testing. I claim no expertise in this field, and just a random dumb arse reading articles I found via Google, but I know you not going to get PhD in area and then work in large UK lab doing genetic testing for 15 years unless you know what you doing (and vice versa).

Even as a layperson a little digging such as the article:

https://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S0104-42302020000700880&script=sci_arttext#B8

shows number details presented to us at press conferences been misleading (at least to me). For example, we have quoting from article:

"The accuracy of the PCR test for coronavirus diagnosis can change according to the prevalence of the disease.

We can simulate 3 situations:

  • With a prevalence of 50%, common among health professionals with respiratory symptoms, we found a post-test probability of 96%.

  • With a prevalence of 20%, the post-test probability was 84%.

  • With a prevalence of 5%, there is a 55% post-test probability."

From memory they have informed us testing detects 7% on day 0 and 85% on day 7, with no mention of prevalence of infection. BMJ got more details how these adjustments work here: 

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1808/rr-22

All I am really saying is bit more to this the putting swabs in machine and that assuming have reactive agents, and we should be led be specialists in this highly technical field. Worse case scenario is testing becomes PR exercise where all press agents want to say is that we are COVID free each week.

In balance I think government got very hard job, impossible to please everyone and naturally trying to navigate a balanced approach, and in main clear the residents of IoM and its government versus say UK done very well (so far at least). 

Edited: Typos, clarity, and added BMJ reference.

Edited by BenFairfax
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1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

There were cases here in key workers who were still detectable for COVID RNA for weeks to months after their initial test.

There does seem to be a class of positive tests which various places are calling 'old' or 'historic' cases - where someone has been infected, maybe had symptoms and recovered, but still has traces of the viral genetic material some time after.  Presumably there are tests so that it can be shown that they are no longer infectious.

Jersey's testing says they have detected 10 of such 'old' cases, presumably out the 131,358 tests they have done since the current regime started in July, so it's fairly rare -when you consider the number of people who must have been infected in the first wave.  In comparison they detected 270 'ordinary' cases. 

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16 hours ago, thesultanofsheight said:

Going by your benchmark with 16 now imprisoned for a variety of minor breaches suggests that they’re certainly not getting any!

 

43 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

It isn’t really. It’s the Comis Hotel happening all over again though isn’t it? A load of spitting, screaming, hysterical pitchfork wavers bullying government into taking completely unneeded civil liberty stripping action because their they’re irrationally crapping their pants. I would imagine most students will be very sensible as they will just be happy to get back. And as AC days above a lot of them will have probably had it by then anyway. 

 

Good news. Travel from the Isle of Man to anywhere in the world accepting incoming flights is still allowed during the very soon coming UK lockdown. We aren’t been kept prisoners on the island.

During UK lockdown, it is not possible to book any flight departing from the UK and leaving the UK. Nor any international buses leaving the UK. Only Eurostar is apparently still selling tickets from London to Bruxelles and Paris; but presumably it is going to be tightly controlled. They might allow me to go through for having dual nationality if I give them a good story; it would be a big risk to take considering the implications of returning here if they don’t. However, there are plenty of connections if you leave from Jersey or the Isle of Man. See flight schedule below as an example.

I have started booking my ski holidays for the months of January and February and have little illusion that UK travel restrictions will be lifted by then. Normally I am away for the winter and spend four weeks up in the high-altitude ski resorts of the Alps; the remaining time being spent in a place I have equipped as an office. I will need a couple of international borders to stay open; not just being able to leave the UK. And the ski resorts to be up and running. They are open now: the second pic shows skiers on the glaciers above Solden a couple of days ago.

I booked the first two weeks with the option to cancel on the 28th of December and will make final decision at the last moment I guess. If you let the government win, we are all cogs in a machine. I care about my own individuality and right to choose. The virus has got its own issues but it is not as bad as a totalitarian state. Down with Boris Johnson and his lockdown henchmen.

 

2085746609_IOMtoVienna11-Nov-20.thumb.jpg.52369ce29f62bcd2eb61df890cd07e13.jpg

 

2007670874_ApicoftheglaciersaboveSolden.jpg.3d9fea613df369055c18fa4f5716252f.jpg

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25 minutes ago, Filippo said:

Good news. Travel from the Isle of Man to anywhere in the world accepting incoming flights is still allowed during the very soon coming UK lockdown. We aren’t been kept prisoners on the island.

During UK lockdown, it is not possible to book any flight departing from the UK and leaving the UK. Nor any international buses leaving the UK. Only Eurostar is apparently still selling tickets from London to Bruxelles and Paris; but presumably it is going to be tightly controlled. They might allow me to go through for having dual nationality if I give them a good story; it would be a big risk to take considering the implications of returning here if they don’t. However, there are plenty of connections if you leave from Jersey or the Isle of Man. See flight schedule below as an example.

I have started booking my ski holidays for the months of January and February and have little illusion that UK travel restrictions will be lifted by then. Normally I am away for the winter and spend four weeks up in the high-altitude ski resorts of the Alps; the remaining time being spent in a place I have equipped as an office. I will need a couple of international borders to stay open; not just being able to leave the UK. And the ski resorts to be up and running. They are open now: the second pic shows skiers on the glaciers above Solden a couple of days ago.

I booked the first two weeks with the option to cancel on the 28th of December and will make final decision at the last moment I guess. If you let the government win, we are all cogs in a machine. I care about my own individuality and right to choose. The virus has got its own issues but it is not as bad as a totalitarian state. Down with Boris Johnson and his lockdown henchmen.

2085746609_IOMtoVienna11-Nov-20.thumb.jpg.52369ce29f62bcd2eb61df890cd07e13.jpg

2007670874_ApicoftheglaciersaboveSolden.jpg.3d9fea613df369055c18fa4f5716252f.jpg

 

Interesting. Though, it is theoretically possible to book a journey departing IOM, but jumping in on the leg of that journey departing from London. If the leg from the IOM is not also booked, the booking would be disallowed. Airlines have been quick implementing UK government guidelines.

Wonder if there are effective checks on the actual point of departure.

Wonder if it is possible to travel first from London to IOM or Jersey and then from there go where one wants to go. I know IOM rules, but it is easy to pretend to be resident here on the IOM web page that grants passes to return to here. I have tried to see how tight is our system, and it isn’t of course. Nothing that the government does works as expected or is safe as promised.

What a world we live in.

Edited by Escape Artist
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58 minutes ago, Filippo said:

Good news. Travel from the Isle of Man to anywhere in the world accepting incoming flights is still allowed during the very soon coming UK lockdown. We aren’t been kept prisoners on the island.

During UK lockdown, it is not possible to book any flight departing from the UK and leaving the UK. Nor any international buses leaving the UK. Only Eurostar is apparently still selling tickets from London to Bruxelles and Paris; but presumably it is going to be tightly controlled. They might allow me to go through for having dual nationality if I give them a good story; it would be a big risk to take considering the implications of returning here if they don’t. However, there are plenty of connections if you leave from Jersey or the Isle of Man. See flight schedule below as an example.

Fat lot of good that is when it’s still 14 days quarantine on return and more importantly when family and friends still can’t visit you here. I don’t give a shit about going away on holiday. However I do give a shit about family and friends in the UK not being able to come over or family not being able to return to the place they were born when a lot of them will be back on furlough for another 4 weeks with bugger all to do. It’s just idiotic to stop people coming here (even if subject to 14 days quarantine) when we can pretty much go anywhere else. 

Edited by thesultanofsheight
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16 minutes ago, thesultanofsheight said:

Fat lot of good that is when it’s still 14 days quarantine on return and more importantly when family and friends still can’t visit you here. I don’t give a shit about going away on holiday. However I do give a shit about family and friends in the UK not being able to come over or family not being able to return to the place they were born when a lot of them will be back on furlough for another 4 weeks with bugger all to do. It’s just idiotic to stop people coming here (even if subject to 14 days quarantine) when we can pretty much go anywhere else. 

You are absolutely right.

But for some people keeping their normal routine, which may include period travel, is a way to maintain their balance and wellbeing.

For some people the mountains are a spiritual thing rather than a hedonist pursuit.

The government is depriving us of our right to choose how to live.

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53 minutes ago, Escape Artist said:

Wonder if it is possible to travel first from London to IOM or Jersey and then from there go where one wants to go. I know IOM rules, but it is easy to pretend to be resident here on the IOM web page that grants passes to return to here. I have tried to see how tight is our system, and it isn’t of course. Nothing that the government does works as expected or is safe as promised.

 

1 hour ago, Filippo said:

Good news. Travel from the Isle of Man to anywhere in the world accepting incoming flights is still allowed during the very soon coming UK lockdown. We aren’t been kept prisoners on the island.

During UK lockdown, it is not possible to book any flight departing from the UK and leaving the UK. Nor any international buses leaving the UK. Only Eurostar is apparently still selling tickets from London to Bruxelles and Paris; but presumably it is going to be tightly controlled. They might allow me to go through for having dual nationality if I give them a good story; it would be a big risk to take considering the implications of returning here if they don’t. However, there are plenty of connections if you leave from Jersey or the Isle of Man. See flight schedule below as an example.

I have started booking my ski holidays for the months of January and February and have little illusion that UK travel restrictions will be lifted by then. Normally I am away for the winter and spend four weeks up in the high-altitude ski resorts of the Alps; the remaining time being spent in a place I have equipped as an office. I will need a couple of international borders to stay open; not just being able to leave the UK. And the ski resorts to be up and running. They are open now: the second pic shows skiers on the glaciers above Solden a couple of days ago.

I booked the first two weeks with the option to cancel on the 28th of December and will make final decision at the last moment I guess. If you let the government win, we are all cogs in a machine. I care about my own individuality and right to choose. The virus has got its own issues but it is not as bad as a totalitarian state. Down with Boris Johnson and his lockdown henchmen.

 

Aren’t those who claim to be resident here actually verified to be living here?

Is it true that it is so easy to lie on that IOMG web page?

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3 hours ago, Banker said:

we had the 7 days test which was negative and were able to go for exercise outside etc. perfectly good system which was stopped overnight by Howie without medical advice.

The problem isn't so much that he stopped it without scientific advice, but that he started it that way.  But it did need to be stopped because of the rising level of infection in the North West.  You can be as careful as you can, but if the opportunities to become infected increase by ten or a hundred times, then so will the chances of it happening.  A hundred times not-very-much can be quite a lot.

The real problem here is the way that the Manx government makes decisions - lots and lots of meetings designed to make everyone feel important and spread any possible responsibility as thinly as possible.  Rather than come up with the correct decision based on evidence.  Of course half the time someone then makes an arbitrary or selfish decision and everyone else just covers up anyway.  But since the whole purpose of the process is to keep them employed, it hardly matters to them what the outcome is.

There's a case that could be made for adopting something like the 7 day strategy in July and then stopping it at the start of September when cases were clearly rising fast.  Starting in September and then being forced to stop it a month later was stupid.

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