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IOM Covid removing restrictions

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7 hours ago, John Wright said:

[...]. The level of testing per head is well above average. Antigen testing is pointless apart from key workers, vulnerable and those with triaged symptoms.

Whats important is the forthcoming antibody testing to see what percentage population has been affected. Antigen testing tells you little apart from X was infected ( or not ) on date Y. Yes it allows you to trace after a positive. We have a tracing team.

I don't think we are that much 'above average' any more.  We started testing too slowly, but then picked up, and at one time we were 13th in testing per capita (in fact I think we actually got in the top 10 at one stage).  But for the last month or more that's actually fallen and we're now at #33.  We've been jogging on at around an average of 50 a day and despite all the talk of using extra capacity to extend testing, it simply hasn't happened.  As the rest of the world has tested more (Monaco has tested 41% we've only done 6%[1]), we've done less.  

Testing has been mainly restricted to hospital admissions and a few key workers who request it.  The numbers triaged through 111 seem to have fallen to nearly nothing (itself odd because that should still be generating the same number of negative cases as before) and there can't have been any real campaign to include many among key workers or the vulnerable or we would see it in the figures. 

But even apart from such groups that I don't think antigen testing is pointless.  Indeed it's among those other, never tested, groups that it might have been the most valuable.  It might have told us if there were asymptotic or less serious cases in the general population and if the infection was spreading at low levels through such groups, who might not be in contact with the most vulnerable and so less likely to trigger the more serious sort of cases that might be detected.  Instead by testing not very many and perhaps those least likely to get infected, the current strategy might be manufacturing only the appearance of success.  Hopefully numbers of the actively infectious might have been low enough for that to be actually true, but there's not really been much of a will to find out.

In contrast, I'm not really sure that antibody testing will tell us anything useful.  Indeed the assumption that we can't learn anything from antigen testing would imply it - if knowing that people have got the infection is useless, so will knowing they have had it.  There seems to be a lot of magical thinking going on again - that everyone can suddenly show immunity without ever having had the disease.  But they can't.

What use is it to know that it's 3% or 5% of the population that have developed antibodies[2]?  Both are equally useless even assuming the tests are sensitive enough to distinguish such results.  Indeed 30% or 50% wouldn't really show any practical advantage, and nowhere is reporting those sort of levels from antibody tests.

 

[1]  This is assuming that no one has been tested more than once, in practice both percentages will be lower - though ours could well be reduced more.

[2]  Jersey has just reported 4%.

 

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@Roger Mexico that’s 33rd out of 200+

Im sure @wrighty will advise the use of antibody testing for planning And modelling.

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4 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

 

In contrast, I'm not really sure that antibody testing will tell us anything useful.  Indeed the assumption that we can't learn anything from antigen testing would imply it - if knowing that people have got the infection is useless, so will knowing they have had it.  There seems to be a lot of magical thinking going on again - that everyone can suddenly show immunity without ever having had the disease.  But they can't.

What use is it to know that it's 3% or 5% of the population that have developed antibodies[2]?  Both are equally useless even assuming the tests are sensitive enough to distinguish such results.  Indeed 30% or 50% wouldn't really show any practical advantage, and nowhere is reporting those sort of levels from antibody tests.

 

 

I have been unsure what the practical use of antibody testing actually is. Interesting to know for sure, but for what actual value?

But I had it explained to me somewhere else that the possible immunity level can matter, and that even a relatively small amount of immune people can help. There is some maths involved which i kind of understood but can't really explain properly, but the argument was that if even approx 20% were immune the effect on possible future transmission, and the fabled r number, could be really big, bigger than you would expect. 

But you are right that nowhere is really reporting that level, think the last time  read about Sweden they were still reporting less than 8%

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3 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

I have been unsure what the practical use of antibody testing actually is. Interesting to know for sure, but for what actual value?

But I had it explained to me somewhere else that the possible immunity level can matter, and that even a relatively small amount of immune people can help. There is some maths involved which i kind of understood but can't really explain properly, but the argument was that if even approx 20% were immune the effect on possible future transmission, and the fabled r number, could be really big, bigger than you would expect. 

But you are right that nowhere is really reporting that level, think the last time  read about Sweden they were still reporting less than 8%

There is a times article today about a bit of Italy where over 50% of people were infected. 

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Somebody forgot to tell the weather that TT is already cancelled.

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Guernsey on ITV news, everything open and 96% of students back at school. Similar position to us with virus but we’re way behind with schools etc

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13 hours ago, Out of the blue said:

Caution when there is no risk is fine if you are not the business who has to pay the rates, staff, suppliers etc. Caution unfortunately does not give business a fighting chance. A good and popular restaurant in Ramsey, Jean Pierres, has just thrown in the towel due to lockdown. Caution is fine for employees of large multinational’s that have been able to operate through this mess, less so for small businesses.

Really sorry to hear that, they put up a good fight with food for delivery

Government proposals for bars & restaurants err on the side of obsessive fastidiousness & businesses that struggle will just throw in the towel

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1 hour ago, Albert Tatlock said:

Somebody forgot to tell the weather that TT is already cancelled.

Had half my plants in pots knocked over in the night

Thought there'd been a whirlwind

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Out of the blue said:

Caution when there is no risk is fine if you are not the business who has to pay the rates, staff, suppliers etc. Caution unfortunately does not give business a fighting chance. A good and popular restaurant in Ramsey, Jean Pierres, has just thrown in the towel due to lockdown. Caution is fine for employees of large multinational’s that have been able to operate through this mess, less so for small businesses.

 

I'm sure if one or two businesses put out the word they are so (genuinely) seriously in the shit - so as to soon go into admin, and can offer an alternative such as delivery, they would garnish a great deal more local customer support?

Though I'm sure a few business owners might try and take the piss - if something is good - people will vote with their wallets. And there are still the majority of people about on full salaries.

 

ETA: I've gone out of my way to buy lots of Bushy's milk bottles at Winerite :)

 

Edited by Albert Tatlock

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Pubs and restaurants have made heroic efforts with food for delivery, & they have had a good deal of community support

None of them will be making money on it tho'

Government needs to give them a break & be less cautious when there's no active virus in the community

New Zealand has done this I believe

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Why can’t we just follow other virus free countries like NZ and Guernsey and get everything open including schools?

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""To be able to interact with other people, be reasonably close to them and, even better, be on the piss is just wonderful," said Oscar, who didn't want to give his last name."

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4 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said:
 

I'm sure if one or two businesses put out the word they are so (genuinely) seriously in the shit - so as to soon go into admin, and can offer an alternative such as delivery, they would garnish a great deal more local customer support?

Though I'm sure a few business owners might try and take the piss - if something is good - people will vote with their wallets. And there are still the majority of people about on full salaries.

I am not sure about Jean Pierre’s circumstances, but if a business was running tight margins beforehand, or burdened with debt for whatever reason, it takes a lot of courage to reopen in the current unceratain circumstances, however good your offering is. I recall a very good restaurant closing several years ago making that exact same call. Did he throw a load of extra money at the business to get it through tight economic times, or just walk away. He walked away. It is a very personal thing and I have a great deal of sympathy with all businesses in similar positions. I wish them all the best and hope the government helps by removing the shackles.

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1 hour ago, Golfer said:

Guernsey on ITV news, everything open and 96% of students back at school. Similar position to us with virus but we’re way behind with schools etc

Wing and a prayer springs to mind. They all have their fingers crossed behind their backs.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Donald Trumps said:

Really sorry to hear that, they put up a good fight with food for delivery

Government proposals for bars & restaurants err on the side of obsessive fastidiousness & businesses that struggle will just throw in the towel

The government did pretty well initially but in my view they have undone most of it with the situation over schools and getting shops and social enterprises back to normal.

They have been unnecessarily cautious and it is detrimental to the island's economy and people.

We are three weeks without a case.  Everything except the borders should be open as normal.  Even if they had thrown everything open a week ago it'll take months to get back to normal levels for many businesses.

The costs and burdens they are placing on businesses is ridiculous. 

The borders issue, judging by the approach so far, is going to be horrific.

Edited by The Dog's Dangly Bits
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