piebaps 3,787 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 If you get away from the "Jersey is best" keyboard warriors and actually look at the test data that we have, you'll immediately see that the introduction of a voluntary test, and its subsequent withdrawal, have not had a significant effect on the number of tests completed. Any data produced by the testing outside of a positive case is of dubious value. We are unlike a lot of places with mass testing. We currently have no community transmission. 2 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tetchtyke 264 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 (edited) Not many people were buying the Day 7 test because they didn't think the additional benefits were worth fifty quid, nor the risk of potentially adding a week to quarantine. So the removal didn't have much of an effect really, except symbolically making travel to the UK less appealing. If there is a community case then it's likely come via a cross-household infection, which has always been the weak point of the quarantine rules. I don't think the test on arrival effectiveness is as low as 7%, which is a figure based on effectiveness on day 1 of infection. But even 50% effectiveness is no better than flipping a coin. Edited November 11, 2020 by tetchtyke Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Andy Onchan 4,716 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 18 minutes ago, Cambon said: More rubbish. Nothing to do with testing. Everything to do with poor isolation. If it is true, it is hardly unexpected. And that's because some think that because they don't have symptoms then they must be negative, which as we all know (well, most of us do) being asymptomatic means that others are still at risk. If they were tested on arrival some, granted not all, would have been picked up. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
tetchtyke 264 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said: And that's because some think that because they don't have symptoms then they must be negative, which as we all know (well, most of us do) being asymptomatic means that others are still at risk. If they were tested on arrival some, granted not all, would have been picked up. The issue is that if the arrival test picks up 60% of infections, for instance, you have 4 in 10 positive people who think they're negative and less likely to quarantine. I genuinely think false negatives are worse than no tests at all. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cambon 1,116 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, Andy Onchan said: And that's because some think that because they don't have symptoms then they must be negative, which as we all know (well, most of us do) being asymptomatic means that others are still at risk. If they were tested on arrival some, granted not all, would have been picked up. The point is EVERY arrival is assumed positive. No household mixing is allowed. Any cross infection is poor isolation. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
asitis 5,988 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 56 minutes ago, Dougie said: How would he know? No idea but he was concerned enough to contact our older family ! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Roger Mexico 10,645 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, tetchtyke said: Not many people were buying the Day 7 test because they didn't think the additional benefits were worth fifty quid, nor the risk of potentially adding a week to quarantine. So the removal didn't have much of an effect really, except symbolically making travel to the UK less appealing. There were about 3200 tests done in September, which was about twice the number done in August, so I think quite a number must have opted for it. 13 minutes ago, tetchtyke said: I don't think the test on arrival effectiveness is as low as 7%, which is a figure based on effectiveness on day 1 of infection. But even 50% effectiveness is no better than flipping a coin. That would only be true if all arrivals were infected, but it's certainly true that an arrival test on its own is completely inadequate Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Banker 1,964 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, Cambon said: The point is EVERY arrival is assumed positive. No household mixing is allowed. Any cross infection is poor isolation. It may not be allowed but it happens and can't be policed, but those testing positive on arrival would take more care and anyone else in household would have to isolate which they don't at present 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
snowman 311 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 (edited) 100,000 doses therefore 50,000 people of the Pfizer vaccine Edited November 11, 2020 by snowman Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nom de plume 1,599 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 5 minutes ago, snowman said: 100,000 doses therefore 50,000 people of the Pfizer vaccine Good ... bang it into the elderly, vulnerable & NHS quick smart. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Roxanne 2,908 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 (edited) I do wonder why the plan to vaccinate is back to front. I know it's tradition and all but wouldn't it be better to vaccinate the ones who want to get out of lockdown and get back to work? Wouldn't it also be better for the economy that everyone keeps banging on about? ETA - And the medics of course. I'm one of the vulnerable (but not elderly - no way!) but it's quite easy for me to hide myself away and only come out when it's all over. I'd far rather my son got mine tbh and I'm sure other (not elderly) folks might feel the same. I'd love to know the reasoning behind the elderly first and look forward to being educated forthwith. Edited November 11, 2020 by Roxanne Add a para x2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cambon 1,116 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 The older or more vulnerable you are the more likely you are to die. Of all the deaths in the uk, only a few hundred have been under 50 and without underlying health conditions 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PaulJ 358 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Roxanne said: I'm one of the vulnerable (but not elderly - no way!) Pfft 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PaulJ 358 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Cambon said: The older or more vulnerable you are the more likely you are to die. There are people dying today that have never died before 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Roxanne 2,908 Posted November 11, 2020 Share Posted November 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Cambon said: The older or more vulnerable you are the more likely you are to die. Of all the deaths in the uk, only a few hundred have been under 50 and without underlying health conditions Thanks but I already knew that. To make it clearer, why can't the vulnerable and the elderly isolate themselves and let the working population crack on - if getting the economy started again is so very important? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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