Jump to content

IOM Covid removing restrictions


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 20.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

OK. For what it's worth I'm going to try and explain why genomics is important in a ssRNA virus epidemic. No doubt it will end up being recited badly at a briefing, but, well, whatever. You read it he

Rachel has tried every which way to re-offer her services. This last tweet wasn't the first time she's reached out. Government has made it very clear they do not want her to be involved. I want h

I think you'll find most so called anti-government rhetoric is focused on government-stupidity and government-selfishness. In recent times - under Brown, Bell and now Quayle - all too many govern

Posted Images

9 minutes ago, trmpton said:

UK "Cases" VS UK Hospital admissions vs Deaths.  Cant be arsed laying one over the other but the ratio of cases/admissions/deaths is clearly very, very different to Spring

 

 

Screenshot 2020-11-12 at 19.35.58.png

Screenshot 2020-11-12 at 19.36.17.png

Screenshot 2020-11-12 at 19.38.14.png

There's a particularly easy reason for that. They were only testing hospital admissions and healthcare workers until June.

  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, trmpton said:

UK "Cases" VS UK Hospital admissions vs Deaths.  Cant be arsed laying one over the other but the ratio of cases/admissions/deaths is clearly very, very different to Spring

 

 

Screenshot 2020-11-12 at 19.35.58.png

Screenshot 2020-11-12 at 19.36.17.png

Screenshot 2020-11-12 at 19.38.14.png

Ratio of admissions to deaths is not that different, testing is obviously out due to the massive capacity increase like just about everywhere in the world. 
 

The current UK situation is impacting on our healthcare here. Just today I’ve tried to deal with a handful of referrals that have had treatment in UK that hasn’t worked out and can I sort it here, or patients who really ought to go across for treatment but can’t as their capacity is gone. Only 1 out of 8 theatres running, that sort of thing. Don’t just take my word for it - listen to radio 4, or watch BBC’s hospital programme. We’re still doing elective work - full orthopaedic capacity this week, no cancellations as far as I know. 
 

I’d like to think that we’re nearly through it. Vaccine news is encouraging, and if we can just keep it under wraps here for the next couple of months we could be home and dry. Overall the government have done well, certainly compared with Boris et al. 

  • Like 14
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

There's a particularly easy reason for that. They were only testing hospital admissions and healthcare workers until June.

Yeah I know that.

So in April roughly 3 in 5 "cases" went into hospital and about a quarter sadly died.

Now its nearer 1 in 15 and still about a quarter of those die.  The growth is nowhere near as sever and seems to have levelled off.  Factor in also that then was Spring (ish) and now is autumn/winter

Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, trmpton said:

All those who are terrified, how many smoke?  How many have made a concerted effort to lose weight and get more physically fit since this all kicked off?

Smoking and, to a slightly lesser extent, obesity are class issues. Middle class people no longer smoke. Except perhaps very occasionally. It's no surprise that cigarettes and lottery / scratch cards are sold at the same counters. Smoking is even further down the average income chain than tattoos.

Edited by pongo
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Confused 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Ratio of admissions to deaths is not that different, testing is obviously out due to the massive capacity increase like just about everywhere in the world. 
 

The current UK situation is impacting on our healthcare here. Just today I’ve tried to deal with a handful of referrals that have had treatment in UK that hasn’t worked out and can I sort it here, or patients who really ought to go across for treatment but can’t as their capacity is gone. Only 1 out of 8 theatres running, that sort of thing. Don’t just take my word for it - listen to radio 4, or watch BBC’s hospital programme. We’re still doing elective work - full orthopaedic capacity this week, no cancellations as far as I know. 
 

I’d like to think that we’re nearly through it. Vaccine news is encouraging, and if we can just keep it under wraps here for the next couple of months we could be home and dry. Overall the government have done well, certainly compared with Boris et al. 

Fair enough.  I don't think blaming Boris is fair though.  No PM was going to have really handled it any differently, they take advice from the experts and act on it and relay to the public.

Medicine and Virology might be one persons area of expertise.  No one can expect Boris to be top man on that, and the economy, and Brexit, and education, and run the armed forces etc etc.

Plus, he never really had the options to take the measures we have taken here did he?  What the ratio of police to population here vs UK?  Prison cells? Court Rooms? Points of entry? Number of residents who are from outside the country? Business travellers? Tourists?

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, trmpton said:

Fair enough.  I don't think blaming Boris is fair though.  No PM was going to have really handled it any differently, they take advice from the experts and act on it and relay to the public.

Medicine and Virology might be one persons area of expertise.  No one can expect Boris to be top man on that, and the economy, and Brexit, and education, and run the armed forces etc etc.

Plus, he never really had the options to take the measures we have taken here did he?  What the ratio of police to population here vs UK?  Prison cells? Court Rooms? Points of entry? Number of residents who are from outside the country? Business travellers? Tourists?

I don’t. The UK situation is mainly about demographics I think. In the first wave they had 10000 cases land in London over a couple of weeks. Start like that and you’ve no chance. They may have been a bit slow to react, but I don’t see they’re much worse than their European neighbours. Our advantage always has been we’re a small island with two ports of entry. Whatever the debates around testing and household isolation, we’re doing OK. We could easily end up like we were in April. 

  • Like 7
Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, wrighty said:

and if we can just keep it under wraps here for the next couple of months we could b

Perhaps an unfortunate sentiment for the cynisism of the DHSC public pronouncements of late????

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, trmpton said:

UK "Cases" VS UK Hospital admissions vs Deaths.  Cant be arsed laying one over the other but the ratio of cases/admissions/deaths is clearly very, very different to Spring

There's a few other things you need to be careful of here.  Admissions to hospital with Covid may slow down or even drop, simply because there are no more suitable beds left in particular hospitals.  What you really need to look at in the number of patients in hospital:

image.png.26e1e59193069dbd57a8fb42e000a58b.png

while numbers are not near the maximum of just under 20,000 in the Spring yet, they're already approaching 15,000.  Because hospital stays with Covid are quite long (I've seen two weeks as a median), numbers will continue to rise even if admissions fall.

Two technical points that apply to all these UK Department of Health graphs.  The different shaped rise in the Spring is due in part to lack of data for various parts of the country and hospitals at the start, plus lack of testing meaning that already-hospitalised patients may all have been included at once.

Secondly you'l  notice my graph as a different colour scheme because it shows the four UK nations separately.  Some of these, particularly Scotland and NI, tend to come in later than the others by a few days.  So if you just look at the 'combined' UK figures (shown just in blue) it looks like they are starting to level off because the last few days don't actually include the others yet. 

You can toggle between the two views, but they recently changed the default from showing separately as above, to the 'combined' one.  Sometimes spinning is quite subtle.

(Edited to add link to DoH information page)

Edited by Roger Mexico
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

There's a few other things you need to be careful of here.  Admissions to hospital with Covid may slow down or even drop, simply because there are no more suitable beds left in particular hospitals.  What you really need to look at in the number of patients in hospital:

image.png.26e1e59193069dbd57a8fb42e000a58b.png

while numbers are not near the maximum of just under 20,000 in the Spring yet, they're already approaching 15,000.  Because hospital stays with Covid are quite long (I've seen two weeks as a median), numbers will continue to rise even if admissions fall.

Two technical points that apply to all these UK Department of Health graphs.  The different shaped rise in the Spring is due in part to lack of data for various parts of the country and hospitals at the start, plus lack of testing meaning that already-hospitalised patients may all have been included at once.

Secondly you'l  notice my graph as a different colour scheme because it shows the four UK nations separately.  Some of these, particularly Scotland and NI, tend to come in later than the others by a few days.  So if you just look at the 'combined' UK figures (shown just in blue) it looks like they are starting to level off because the last few days don't actually include the others yet. 

You can toggle between the two views, but they recently changed the default from showing separately as above, to the 'combined' one.  Sometimes spinning is quite subtle.

Do you think the figures would look different if both “waves” had started in February? Or is there an element of seasonal impact?

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Seems to be a little less hoaxer chat around the internet, although the vaccine news sent a few people off the rails the other day. Fair bit less of the natural herd immunty pushers too. Maybe people are waking up.

Or just worn down & exasperated.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...