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IOM Covid removing restrictions

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40 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

I have a question for @wrighty or indeed anyone who might know. You'll possibly have seen the reports over the last few days, notabl reported on by the FT about the 'pillar 1' and 'pillar 2' testing information, and how the pillar 2 information is not accurately being shared. That;s one of the things that has caused such consternation in Leicester. Do the people here in charge of our response have access to it? And if not, how can we possibly make an accurate response to the threat that the UK so obviously represents? Thanks.

"Piller 1" is testing of NHS staff, Care Homes and those pitching up at hospital.

"Pillar 2" are the testing stations in the wider community.

Leicester happened because the local authority were only given the P1 cases - 80.

They were only informed of the P2 cases a week later, last Thusday making - 944.

Just another Bozo fuckup....

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Bozo is awesome. He's doing more cutting and burning than Thatcher ever did. Just think of the space that'll be available for "green shoots" by the time he's finished. Whether it's inadvertently or not is a different question.

He's like the UK's Pol Pot. "Year Zero" beckons.

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8 hours ago, TheTeapot said:

I have a question for @wrighty or indeed anyone who might know. You'll possibly have seen the reports over the last few days, notabl reported on by the FT about the 'pillar 1' and 'pillar 2' testing information, and how the pillar 2 information is not accurately being shared. That;s one of the things that has caused such consternation in Leicester. Do the people here in charge of our response have access to it? And if not, how can we possibly make an accurate response to the threat that the UK so obviously represents? Thanks.

We’re not looking at that level of granularity - I don’t think it would help. Deaths are a good marker as they’re the hardest outcome and less likely to be subject to ‘massaging the figures’. The so called ‘pillar 4’ testing is also helpful - these are the fortnightly prevalence surveys and this is what I quoted earlier, with prevalence increasing from 1:1700 to 1:1100. 
 

 

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5 minutes ago, Golfer said:

However overall U.K. deaths are now back to normal rates...

Not the point. If there are 150 deaths from covid today, we can infer that there were about 15000 new infections about 3 weeks ago. Combining this with the ONS released prevalence data (which is with a 2 week time lag) you can get a reasonable idea of the proportion of the UK that were infected with covid 2-3 weeks ago. This data can be extrapolated to estimate the prevalence now, in terms of ‘1 in x’ of the UK are currently covid +ve.  This figure can then be used to calculate the probability of importing a case of covid if we have, say, 1000 people a week arriving from the UK. That figure can help inform border policy. 

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2 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Not the point. If there are 150 deaths from covid today, we can infer that there were about 15000 new infections about 3 weeks ago. Combining this with the ONS released prevalence data (which is with a 2 week time lag) you can get a reasonable idea of the proportion of the UK that were infected with covid 2-3 weeks ago. This data can be extrapolated to estimate the prevalence now, in terms of ‘1 in x’ of the UK are currently covid +ve.  This figure can then be used to calculate the probability of importing a case of covid if we have, say, 1000 people a week arriving from the UK. That figure can help inform border policy. 

Do you think Jersey reopening borders and Guernsey do a 7 day trial on isolation are being reckless then or just Iom over cautious?

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, Golfer said:

Do you think Jersey reopening borders and Guernsey do a 7 day trial on isolation are being reckless then or just Iom over cautious?

I think you’ll find that both islands are run by realists. If you look at the polls supporting actions it’s clear that both islands seem to have a hardcore of realists in the population who want to continue to work and embrace the rest of the world where possible and practical. Not a load of lazy-ass torch wavers straight out of The Wicker Man who want to burn anyone who sets foot in the Island as they might be carrying death and who fancy another six months off being paid for doing nothing. Governments are largely led by public opinion and public opinion here seems to be incredibly insular.

Edited by Mr Newbie
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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Not the point. If there are 150 deaths from covid today, we can infer that there were about 15000 new infections about 3 weeks ago. Combining this with the ONS released prevalence data (which is with a 2 week time lag) you can get a reasonable idea of the proportion of the UK that were infected with covid 2-3 weeks ago. This data can be extrapolated to estimate the prevalence now, in terms of ‘1 in x’ of the UK are currently covid +ve.  This figure can then be used to calculate the probability of importing a case of covid if we have, say, 1000 people a week arriving from the UK. That figure can help inform border policy. 

This is probably an unfair question Wrighty, as it has more than a little ‘piece of string’ complexion to it but, on balance, in terms of infection rates, what do you think is the most likely outcome of this coming Saturday’s big relaxation in the UK? Let me help by giving you three options: negligible; disturbing but manageable; Armageddon.

Edited by Uhtred

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1 minute ago, Uhtred said:

This is probably an unfair question Wrighty, as it has more than a little ‘piece of string’ complexion to it but, on balance, in terms of infection rates, what do you think is the most likely outcome of this coming Saturday’s big relaxation in the UK? Let me help by giving you three options: negligible; disturbing but manageable; Armageddon.

If the Southern States are anything to go by....

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On 6/30/2020 at 8:53 PM, Mr Newbie said:

I would hazard a guess that his medical qualifications by far exceed any you might have. 

that must be why IOMG are putting sticking plasters on their problems.

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1 minute ago, P.K. said:

If the Southern States are anything to go by....

Well indeed...

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29 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Not the point. If there are 150 deaths from covid today, we can infer that there were about 15000 new infections about 3 weeks ago. Combining this with the ONS released prevalence data (which is with a 2 week time lag) you can get a reasonable idea of the proportion of the UK that were infected with covid 2-3 weeks ago. This data can be extrapolated to estimate the prevalence now, in terms of ‘1 in x’ of the UK are currently covid +ve.  This figure can then be used to calculate the probability of importing a case of covid if we have, say, 1000 people a week arriving from the UK. That figure can help inform border policy. 

I suppose what needs to be looked at is the make up of potential passenger traffic through the airport.

I can't remember the figures in a normal operational environment but this has to be the key in deciding the real risk.

Guernsey trialling the 7 day thing looks like a good step to me.  I would just wonder if we are resorced enough to test the volume and produce results quickly.  You would really need quite a number of testers taking and examining the samples.  

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28 minutes ago, Uhtred said:

This is probably an unfair question Wrighty, as it has more than a little ‘piece of string’ complexion to it but, on balance, in terms of infection rates, what do you think is the most likely outcome of this coming Saturday’s big relaxation in the UK? Let me help by giving you three options: negligible; disturbing but manageable; Armageddon.

I suspect the middle one.  UK have not got the infection under control.  What they're doing to relax looks reasonable, except you can't trust the people to be reasonable - see the photos of the beaches etc.  And I cannot understand why you'd pick a Saturday to just 'go for it'.  A&E departments are not going to be attractive places to be on Saturday night over there - you can have that prediction for free.

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51 minutes ago, Golfer said:

Do you think Jersey reopening borders and Guernsey do a 7 day trial on isolation are being reckless then or just Iom over cautious?

I don't think we're being over cautious.  The local economy is up and running fully, except for the tourist things.  We don't want to have to go backwards.

I'd rather not comment on Jersey's and Guernsey's approach - nobody knows for sure what the best thing is.  We'll wait and see.

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