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Filippo

IOM Covid removing restrictions

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This “study” seems to find things that I had pointed out with a previous posting of mine nearly a month ago (precisely on the 4th June; pag. 50 of this thread). My posting was based on an academic paper.

If half of us have already immunity to Covid-19 and fight it with their T-cells; and 20 or 25% have developed immunity following infection; that explains why in London, Stockholm and New York the virus has almost completely disappeared. I expect more such “studies” to appear in the weeks and months to come.

That of course, changes the economy of the lockdown. And of the border closure in the IOM. Soon or later our governments will have to factor it in. But expect a lot of history rewriting, as all politicians do. There is “unprecedented interest” in moving to the IOM because the IOM has “done so well”; that is the current narrative from our chief minister. (How they can actually move in when the law forbids it is an irrelevant detail.)

Statistics show that outside of care homes British Covid-19 mortality has  been no more than the one of a “bad flu season”. And there starts to be plenty of evidence that, in the UK, the lockdown has achieved nothing in London, and only delayed things a bit in the other regions. But there is no fact or logic argument that can convince the advocates of total Covid-19 suppression. For them the lockdown is the path to a different kind of society. That is what they really want; those who aren’t just idiots of course.

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1 hour ago, wrighty said:

I don't think we're being over cautious.  The local economy is up and running fully, except for the tourist things.  We don't want to have to go backwards.

Excellent, nice to see it written down by someone who knows. I say this same thing and I'm 'Panicy McPanicface'.

Here's what I think has happened recently in the UK. I reckon they had nearly got on top of it, but just at the crucial time where they had the chance to really clampdown they let it go a bit, with the relaxations and the protests. Because the level of infection was getting lower these larger public events and movements didn't lead to big spikes, but did lead to the virus making a bit of of a comeback, increasing the level of virus around, and now its ready to erupt again starting Saturday night in the pub. 3 weeks and some parts of the UK are going to be copying Texas, Florida et al. I hope I'm wrong.

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"Travel responsible for less than 15% of Manx coronavirus cases"

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/travel-responsible-for-less-than-15-of-manx-coronavirus-cases/

What bollox is this? Where did the rest arrive - on a meteorite landing in Foxdale?

Travel was 100% responsible for it all - infecting all the others.

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3 hours ago, Mr Newbie said:

I think you’ll find that both islands are run by realists. If you look at the polls supporting actions it’s clear that both islands seem to have a hardcore of realists in the population who want to continue to work and embrace the rest of the world where possible and practical. Not a load of lazy-ass torch wavers straight out of The Wicker Man who want to burn anyone who sets foot in the Island as they might be carrying death and who fancy another six months off being paid for doing nothing. Governments are largely led by public opinion and public opinion here seems to be incredibly insular.

:rolleyes:

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11 minutes ago, Albert Tatlock said:

"Travel responsible for less than 15% of Manx coronavirus cases"

https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/travel-responsible-for-less-than-15-of-manx-coronavirus-cases/

What bollox is this? Where did the rest arrive - on a meteorite landing in Foxdale?

Travel was 100% responsible for it all - infecting all the others.

You could say exactly the same thing about every single country outside the point of origin, but that wouldn't be a particularly useful observation.  It's better to try and get a handle on how many cases of infection for which travel is directly responsible. 

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One of the joys of Chris Thomas being sacked is that he is now asking all sorts of questions to which he already knows the answers and asking in a way designed to bring out the information without it being fudged.  Not only does he know where the bodies are buried, he knows what the tombstone should say.  This, which is from the Written Questions for Tuesday's Tynwald, is a good example:

If he will make a statement on the travel history data for confirmed COVID-19 Island cases broken down by i) short breaks ii) cruise holiday returners iii) longer holidays not on cruise vessels iv) returning students before 27 March 2020 v) returning residents after 27 March 2020 vi) key workers broken down between the various exemption categories and vii) other significant groupings?

image.png.fdf8ec826d9076e961d317be06c56b78.png

Which gives a total of 66 or 20% of all cases.  However they then say "The tables above include the known travel history for all positive covid-19 cases. However, due to symptom timelines, or other members of the household already being positive, only 48 cases are recorded as having Covid-19 with travel as the nature of transmission. As such the breakdown of the travel history for just those 48 cases are set out below"

image.png.c60faff9e2c583cba69953471fc33bde.png

Which is only 48 and 14%.  Clearly there's there's going to be uncertainty in a lot of cases[1], but prioritising personal contact (quite rationally on medical grounds) is going to reduce the number of cases incurred via travel.

 

[1]  If Mr A gets symptoms and tests positive and them Mrs A does a few days later, is that because he has infected her or because they were both affected while travelling and she took longer to develop symptoms.

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Hell hath no fury like a Minister scorned. I’m really looking forward to Thomas making Quayle squirm. He’s well equipped to do so.

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2 hours ago, Uhtred said:

Hell hath no fury like a Minister scorned. I’m really looking forward to Thomas making Quayle squirm. He’s well equipped to do so.

He is quite impressive on Twitter at the moment. As Roger says he knows where the bodies are buried and he’s doing a lot of exhumations at the moment. Long may it continue. 

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Oh I do love Christ Thomas. He's asking all the right Q's as you all say. Be it about Abbotswood or the transmissions and no doubt plenty more juicy stuff to come.

Go get 'em big  T.

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Just goes to show the degree of compliance that is obtained by awarding Ministerial position and an extra £10k. And some say we don't need a political opposition and the current system works fine. Don't make me laugh.

If ever there was proof positive that having them all on the payroll keeps the lid on the box of fxxk-ups and corruption, Chris Thomas is now it. No wonder they were so quick to haul Maska aboard the DOI bandwagon.

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Posted (edited)

No open borders for locals yet. Slightly surprised but the right move.

Nice to see a little thought put into the practical side of managing things when borders are open and the flu/cold season arrives, in that if you have previously been on the island for two weeks, which will be the majority of people and you develop a cold, you take a test, isolate for a day or so until you get a negative result (hopefully), and then you are allowed to carry on without the 14 day isolation period.

Edited by Out of the blue
typo

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Out of the blue said:

No open borders for locals yet. Slightly surprised but the right move.

Nice to see a little thought put into the practical side of managing things when borders are open and the flu/cold season arrives, in that if you have previously been on the island for two weeks, which will be the majority of people and you develop a cold, you take a test, isolate for a day or so until you get a negative result (hopefully), and then you are allowed to carry on without the 14 day isolation period.

If I get a cold there is zero chance I'll be going for a test.  Why would you test people who don't have symptoms?

I've got young kids.  I have a semi permanent cold:rolleyes:

Edited by The Dog's Dangly Bits
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Couldn't you just co-operate instead of being a contrary Mary? 

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missed the update but reportedly Howie said CoMin will consider borders next week with updated figures, not sure what figures he means.

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3 minutes ago, Golfer said:

missed the update but reportedly Howie said CoMin will consider borders next week with updated figures, not sure what figures he means.

Probably that there would be at least another seven days of you droning on about it.

 

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