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Nomadic Raptor
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Just a reminder that Richard not have any useful qualifications or experience in these matters, he also doesn't live here, isn't Manx, doesn't have any kids, and sits there in his stormtrooper outfit in the UK posting on a forum that revolves around the Isle of Man. Bit sad really. 

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If you had a large amount of asymptomatic cases it is inevitable that someone would present symptoms serious enough to end up at the hospital, let alone present enough to get a test. This isn't happening anymore. Therefore there can't be a large amount of asymptomatic cases.

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47 minutes ago, Lost Login said:

Acceptable is not the correct word but in saving 1 person 5 others die then unfortunately saving the 5 will have priority. Would I describe that as "acceptable? No, I would describe as the best of the options that are available. You appear to want to save all 6, and I am sure we would all like that, but that is not an option that is available  

"Acceptable" IS the right word.

Your scenario is rubbish.

The massive difference between Covid and say cancer is that Covid is highly contagious and could easily get loose into the population. In the UK's case that means an NHS overwhelmed and 500,000 fatalities.

Personally I think the islands, especially Skye, have demonstrated their massive geographical advantage that Bozo et al threw away.

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2 minutes ago, Manxberry said:

Just a reminder that Richard not have any useful qualifications or experience in these matters...

Well that describes 99% of forum.  "slow golf clap"

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...he also doesn't live here, isn't Manx, doesn't have any kids...

Irrelevant on the internet. "slow golf clap"

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sits there in his stormtrooper outfit in the UK posting on a forum that revolves around the Isle of Man. Bit sad really. 

What ever fantasies you have about me and what I am wearing you should keep to yourself.

There are people I care about that live on the IOM, and want the best for them.  My hopes are that they get through this as unscathed as possible.

Idiots like some on this forum are going to be the reason they don't.

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5 minutes ago, RIchard Britten said:

Right and what about those that haven't admitted themselves to hospitals that are asymptomatic?

If there are any they don't seem to be causing any trouble and are usefully adding to the island's herd immunity.

Do you not follow the argument Richard? For a thousand infections you might have 50-75% completely asymptomatic, of the remainder most will not require hospital admission but about 5% will, of those perhaps a quarter need ITU and half of them die.  Total infection fatality rate is probably between 0.3% and 1.3%.  So if we had a 'large number' of asymptomatic cases here, we would expect a 'smaller number' of symptomatic/serious cases, which we haven't had for about a month.

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4 minutes ago, wrighty said:

If there are any they don't seem to be causing any trouble and are usefully adding to the island's herd immunity.

Do you not follow the argument Richard? For a thousand infections you might have 50-75% completely asymptomatic, of the remainder most will not require hospital admission but about 5% will, of those perhaps a quarter need ITU and half of them die.  Total infection fatality rate is probably between 0.3% and 1.3%.  So if we had a 'large number' of asymptomatic cases here, we would expect a 'smaller number' of symptomatic/serious cases, which we haven't had for about a month.

Would you attribute that to lock down measure or some other factor?

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...island's herd immunity.

Without a tested and viable vaccine, and no solid data regarding reinfection potential, what herd immunity are you talking about?

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1 minute ago, RIchard Britten said:

Would you attribute that to lock down measure or some other factor?

Good question.  Main thing here, as opposed to where you're commenting from, is the border closure.  When we had community transmission lock down was important for suppressing it, as was our contact tracing and isolation policy.  If you start with a manageable number of cases and keep on top of them, you'll be fine if you don't import more.  Now we have, as far as we can tell, achieved local elimination the case for lockdown is getting less persuasive all the time.  We should be able to 'get on with it' in my view (As always, that is MY view not the policy of IOM Gov, but if and when they ask for my opinion I'll state the same) while keeping borders shut until such time as a workable arrival testing/quarantine policy can be implemented.

As for other factors - I think we'll see that the viral population as a whole is becoming less lethal.  That's what viruses do, by the principle of natural selection.  There may also be a seasonal effect - why? UV? Vitamin D? Who knows.  It'll be interesting to see what happens Down Under as they move into winter, after patting themselves on the backs at their handling of the crisis so far.

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2 minutes ago, wrighty said:

Good question.  Main thing here, as opposed to where you're commenting from, is the border closure.  When we had community transmission lock down was important for suppressing it, as was our contact tracing and isolation policy.  If you start with a manageable number of cases and keep on top of them, you'll be fine if you don't import more.  Now we have, as far as we can tell, achieved local elimination the case for lockdown is getting less persuasive all the time.  We should be able to 'get on with it' in my view (As always, that is MY view not the policy of IOM Gov, but if and when they ask for my opinion I'll state the same) while keeping borders shut until such time as a workable arrival testing/quarantine policy can be implemented.

As for other factors - I think we'll see that the viral population as a whole is becoming less lethal.  That's what viruses do, by the principle of natural selection.  There may also be a seasonal effect - why? UV? Vitamin D? Who knows.  It'll be interesting to see what happens Down Under as they move into winter, after patting themselves on the backs at their handling of the crisis so far.

And your comments regarding herd immunity?

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5 minutes ago, wrighty said:

  Main thing here, as opposed to where you're commenting from, is the border closure.  When we had community transmission lock down was important for suppressing it, as was our contact tracing and isolation policy.  If you start with a manageable number of cases and keep on top of them, you'll be fine if you don't import more.  Now we have, as far as we can tell, achieved local elimination the case for lockdown is getting less persuasive all the time.  We should be able to 'get on with it' in my view (As always, that is MY view not the policy of IOM Gov, but if and when they ask for my opinion I'll state the same) while keeping borders shut until such time as a workable arrival testing/quarantine policy can be implemented.

 

This should be the policy of IOM Gov.

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Just now, RIchard Britten said:

And your comments regarding herd immunity?

If you're going to edit your posts after I've started replying to them things will get missed Richard!

Herd immunity is a concept.  We are assuming that prior infection with the virus confers a degree of immunity against future infection - it may not be permanent nor complete - as I'm not aware of another infection that doesn't.  So the more people infected, the more likely we'll have a degree of herd immunity, so that future outbreaks are less likely/smaller/more manageable etc.

People seem very wary of using the term as it's been widely discredited as a strategy for managing the initial epidemics, but it is still a valid concept.  How else will mass vaccination work?  Vaccinating the population is simply a means of achieving herd immunity without people getting an infection.

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It’s in the chemtrails I tell ta.  Look, people got ill, the planes stopped flying, the cases dropped.  Chemtrails.  Kids will be indoors so they will protected from the chemtrails.  Teachers will wear tin foil hats and only breath in in groups of 2.

Get the school here back as normal after TT, half term or what ever you want to call it this year.  

That awful union shouty Irish woman needs to tell the UK unions it’s different over here.  
 

 

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10 minutes ago, wrighty said:

If you're going to edit your posts after I've started replying to them things will get missed Richard!

Herd immunity is a concept.  We are assuming that prior infection with the virus confers a degree of immunity against future infection - it may not be permanent nor complete - as I'm not aware of another infection that doesn't.  So the more people infected, the more likely we'll have a degree of herd immunity, so that future outbreaks are less likely/smaller/more manageable etc.

People seem very wary of using the term as it's been widely discredited as a strategy for managing the initial epidemics, but it is still a valid concept.  How else will mass vaccination work?  Vaccinating the population is simply a means of achieving herd immunity without people getting an infection.

So you're "hoping" for herd immunity which relies on two things we don't have and either won't have for some time or at all, 1) a valid vaccine 2) proof that the virus cannot infect those who have already been infected?

Not intending that to sound as antagonistic as it appears, just trying to understand why a medically professional is talking about herd immunity at this stage of the pandemic, when groups such as the WHO says relying on herd immunity with regards to CV-19 is "dangerous".

 

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