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All Jersey residents are being given £100 each


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Well, according to P5 of the Indy, the IoM has jumped up 23 places in the world order of broadband speed and is now above the UK. We now have a mean speed of 44.16Mbps, up from 11.04Mbps in just one year. As a result the Island has risen from position 63 to position 40 whilst UK has gone the opposite way from 34 to 47.

Lichtenstein tops the charts with Jersey in second place with 218.37Mbps (some on here will be orgasmic about Jersey no doubt...).

Huge backslappings for MT and Sure in order then....?

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IoM Govt will be taking £100 off each resident. And that's just for starters...

Yes but they have a national debt two & a half times GDP and really know how to make money work for the nation as a whole Here it will be grants for landowners to help them get by

Also the reason we are the only parliament not to be at work , it’s to stop those people like Thomas & Edge asking awkward questions in person and following up with supplemental ones

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19 minutes ago, Donald Trumps said:


Treasury are launching a preview of their recovery plan next week to the business sector

From what I've seen government appear to be mostly on the right track to establish the IOM as a green digital safe haven in a parlous world

They need to introduce elements of 'fairness' into this vision

& they'll have to invest considerably in digital infrastructure + developing the green economy

Can't stop spending now or the economy (& society) will fall flat on it's face

But what is a “a green digital safe haven in a parlous world”? Will it pay the bills?

 

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5 hours ago, Josem said:

This - the Isle of Man Government is cutting support, not adding to it. Their support was much more miserly than elsewhere, that's probably a big part of why our unemployment is already up at 5% while in the UK, the latest figures have it below 4%.

You're comparing the ILO rates, rather than the numbers on unemployment benefit, where it's 2.6% for the Isle of Man compared to 3.9% in the UK.  But you need to be very careful about the ILO estimates for the Isle of Man.  The methodology says:

Quote

Historically the Island has only published the ILO definition of unemployment when census results have been made available. The estimate that has been included within this report is based upon an analysis of the ILO unemployment rate and the claimant count rate which has generated an estimate of the number of individuals that maybe unemployed and actively seeking work but not registered as doing so.

Which means it's an estimate based on how things were at the last Census in 2016[1].  But if the structure of the job market changes dramatically - as it obviously has - the assumptions used in the calculation will be invalid.  I'm not quite sure what formula they use and it's not a simple multiple, but it's not far off that.  In July 2019, 334 on JSA translated into 779 ILO, while in July 2020 1100 on JSA became ILO 2145.  While some people who lost their jobs recently won't bother to have registered, I suspect the vast majority will have - but these figures imply that for every 100 that have, another 78 haven't.  This seems unlikely.

It's worth saying that there are other oddities in the current (July) Manx unemployment figures.  In particular it says (p 4):

New Claimants 227     Claimants leaving the register 377

Which doesn't tie in with a drop of only 33.  On examination they seem to have forgotten to change the figures from the previous month. 

 

1]  Whereas the UK and ONS in particular will be doing constant surveys to assess the number of people not registered as unemployed, but looking for work.  So their estimates will be based (with a bit of a lag) on the current situation.

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8 minutes ago, Donald Trumps said:

Let's hope so

Watch the Treasury briefing & see what they have to say

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-road-to-recovery-isle-of-man-government-tickets-118462786383

You'd have thought the whole point of being Covid-free was so they could do live briefings.  But I suspect they've discovered the joy of online events is that awkward questions can mysteriously disappear.

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1 hour ago, Roger Mexico said:

You'd have thought the whole point of being Covid-free was so they could do live briefings.  But I suspect they've discovered the joy of online events is that awkward questions can mysteriously disappear.

Also the reason we are the only parliament not to be at work , it’s to stop those people like Thomas & Edge asking awkward questions in person and following up with supplemental ones

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2 hours ago, Non-Believer said:

Well, according to P5 of the Indy, the IoM has jumped up 23 places in the world order of broadband speed and is now above the UK. We now have a mean speed of 44.16Mbps, up from 11.04Mbps in just one year. As a result the Island has risen from position 63 to position 40 whilst UK has gone the opposite way from 34 to 47.

Lichtenstein tops the charts with Jersey in second place with 218.37Mbps (some on here will be orgasmic about Jersey no doubt...).

Huge backslappings for MT and Sure in order then....?

And of course from Digital IOM who seem to have boosted this to the papers.  You may remember that we dissected this nonsense in an earlier topic over a week ago, and even the papers have reported the caveats about this survey, but self-congratulation seems to be the main, indeed only, skill that the DfE possess.

As you can imagine, the comments on the article are . . . not impressed.

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19 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

You're comparing the ILO rates, rather than the numbers on unemployment benefit, where it's 2.6% for the Isle of Man compared to 3.9% in the UK.  But you need to be very careful about the ILO estimates for the Isle of Man.  The methodology says:

This is literally why the ILO created a standard definition of unemployment: so that unemployment rates could be compared across jurisdictions. That's why the ILO definition of the word "unemployment" exists, and that's the honest way to compare unemployment rates between IOM and UK.

Indeed, you've accidentally proven why such international standards exist: the 3.9% figure that you've quoted for the UK's unemployment rate is, of course, the ILO-definition of unemployment*. You've been tricked by the IOM Government into comparing the nonsense-IOM figure with the honest-UK figure. That's what most people do. However, you've been taken for a sucker by the IOM Government, because you - in good faith - thought that they could be trusted. They can't be.

The UK uses a different phrase ("claimant count") to count the number of people who are registered and receiving specified unemployment benefits (which is closer, but probably not quite identical to the IOM definition of "unemployment" since there might be jurisdictional differences about the qualification for unemployment benefits). The UK Government's Office of National Statistics uses the legitimate, honest, internationally-accepted, definition of "unemployment" because the statisticians there are honest, independent and professional adults.

For goodness sake, the bullshit Manx Government headline definition of "unemployment" excludes people that the Isle of Man Government has itself certified are unemployed! It's mendacious, it's awful, and the officials who mislead the public in this manner cannot be trusted. These are not serious people.

Whoever decided to create a local, Isle of Man-only, definition of the word "unemployment" has disqualified themselves from being taken in good faith. They should be expelled from any discussion of this issue, and they should not taken seriously as an honest participant in this conversation. Creating your own, local, definition of words is an incredibly mendacious act, it is dishonest, it is misleading, and everyone should reject such behaviour. It's particularly awful here in the Isle of Man because we do not have the strong and vigorous institutions of a larger nation to hold this misbehaviour to account: we don't have an opposition political party, we don't well funded investigative or advocacy journalists, we don't have an effective parliamentary committee system investigating this nonsense.

 

*You can read the technical definitions in the glossary at the bottom here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/august2020

and here:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/methodologies/aguidetolabourmarketstatistics#unemployment

(For excessive clarity, there can and should be local, Manx-specific policy decisions on how to respond to unemployment. But coming up with some local Manx-English definition of the word "unemployment" itself is complete bullshit)

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5 hours ago, Josem said:

the statisticians there are honest, independent and professional adults.

Good grief! Do any such statisticians exist, anywhere????

You'll be saying the same about politicians next?

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7 hours ago, Josem said:

This is literally why the ILO created a standard definition of unemployment: so that unemployment rates could be compared across jurisdictions. That's why the ILO definition of the word "unemployment" exists, and that's the honest way to compare unemployment rates between IOM and UK.

Indeed, you've accidentally proven why such international standards exist: the 3.9% figure that you've quoted for the UK's unemployment rate is, of course, the ILO-definition of unemployment*. You've been tricked by the IOM Government into comparing the nonsense-IOM figure with the honest-UK figure. That's what most people do. However, you've been taken for a sucker by the IOM Government, because you - in good faith - thought that they could be trusted. They can't be.

I'm not really sure what you are trying to say here (or in the rest of your comment).  I was replying to your comment that:

Quote

This - the Isle of Man Government is cutting support, not adding to it. Their support was much more miserly than elsewhere, that's probably a big part of why our unemployment is already up at 5% while in the UK, the latest figures have it below 4%

And I assumed you were referring to the ILO figures (the UK's is actually slightly higher at 4.0% if you look further down the link I gave) and explained why the current ILO estimate for the Isle of Man of 5% is unreliable for structural reasons, something they admit themselves.  This isn't a new thing - the wording I quoted actually comes from July 2019 as you can see from the link.

This isn't some evil plot to fake the figures as you seem to imagine.  It's because, unlike in the UK, there is no continuous survey of the population which the number of those seeking work but not registered for JSA or with the Job Centre can be calculated from.  At best they can try to model something based on the structure of the workforce at the last Census, when there were only 711 JSA claimants and the numbers were falling rapidly, but this may be unreliable in different conditions.

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On 9/12/2020 at 7:19 AM, Derek Flint said:

People I talk to from pretty much all backgrounds recognise the money situation is getting critical.

It would be good to see the figures that would justify this. Is it really getting critical?

The way Govt is splashing the cash would appear to suggest otherwise. The Prom behind time and over budget with Black and Robinson arguing against any cuts suggested by their Minister. The Liverpool Terminal behind schedule and apparently open-ended budget-wise. The purchase of the SPCo and the ordering of a new £100M vessel. Heritage railways and new bus fleets. Govt staff stood by on full pay for months. Plenty of other examples.

Ministers state that we have a billion plus in reserves and there is no need to worry. Either that or we have access to a plantation of magic money trees and/or the finances are healthy. Or we're being misled. Which?

 

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