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At least the promenade will be finished by then.

It’s another element of our future which we are going to have to come to terms with if the event is not going to run next year. If it doesn’t, then we are in an interesting position on a number of lev

I doubt it.  Most people haven't heard of the Isle of Man.  Our brochures are not prominent in travel agents.  I lived in the NW of England for 10 years and it never came on to my radar at all.  Befor

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8 hours ago, GD4ELI said:

I doubt whether 50% of Manx residents would vote for the TT. Were I resident then I wouldn't, too many widows and orphans.

I assume you've done your utmost to prevent swimming in Cornwall. Over 30 deaths in the last 7 years,but then again,it's maybe too difficult to know exactly who the widows or orphans were related to.

 

 

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9 hours ago, GD4ELI said:

I doubt whether 50% of Manx residents would vote for the TT. Were I resident then I wouldn't, too many widows and orphans.

Actual nonsense.

We live in a democracy. Which elected politicians are anti-TT? I reckon none of them. althouygh I once knew an MHK who was anti-TT but they knew full well to keep that quiet, otherwise they simply would not have been elected and re-elected (numerous occasions).

 

 

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7 hours ago, PaulJ said:

I assume you've done your utmost to prevent swimming in Cornwall. Over 30 deaths in the last 7 years,but then again,it's maybe too difficult to know exactly who the widows or orphans were related to.

Death rate / hour spent swimming would be a better comparison.

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12 hours ago, dilligaf said:

Just where do you get your figures from. 50,000. Not a chance in hell, nothing like it.

How many do you think then??

My guess as follows:

I've been on the ferry's and flown over for the TT many times in the last 25 years, and i think at least 90% of all passengers on boats and planes for a two week period are coming over for the TT. The window starts middle of the week before it starts, and will run right up until senior day, so lets say 14 days at 90% are over for the TT.

Combined capacity of both ferry's is 1,500 and they are packed, so lets say 1,300 actual. Think there are three crossings each per day, so 36,400. 90% of that is around 33,000

Last June 86,000 people flew to Ronaldsway, so lets say 45,000 (every flight is full) flew over in the TT 2 week period. 90% of that is 41,000

That gives a total of 74,000 less another 5% tolerance to keep you happy, which leaves around 70,000 visitors over for the TT. Yes, some only come for the day, some come for a weekend, some come for just practice week, and some come for all 2 weeks. 

70,000 is my guess, what your's Dilli?

 

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It will be great when this covid death crisis ends so that we can get straight back to resurrecting the annual festival of motorcycle death. Odd they can lock us up in this island for our own protection but the minute this is all over we’ll be inviting riders back explicitly to risk killIng themselves in the IOM. They died doing what they loved we’ll cry from behind our masks on our way back to our covid bunkers like obedient citizens :lol:

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1 hour ago, winnie said:

How many do you think then??

My guess as follows:

I've been on the ferry's and flown over for the TT many times in the last 25 years, and i think at least 90% of all passengers on boats and planes for a two week period are coming over for the TT. The window starts middle of the week before it starts, and will run right up until senior day, so lets say 14 days at 90% are over for the TT.

Combined capacity of both ferry's is 1,500 and they are packed, so lets say 1,300 actual. Think there are three crossings each per day, so 36,400. 90% of that is around 33,000

Last June 86,000 people flew to Ronaldsway, so lets say 45,000 (every flight is full) flew over in the TT 2 week period. 90% of that is 41,000

That gives a total of 74,000 less another 5% tolerance to keep you happy, which leaves around 70,000 visitors over for the TT. Yes, some only come for the day, some come for a weekend, some come for just practice week, and some come for all 2 weeks. 

70,000 is my guess, what your's Dilli?

 

It’s a poor guess, because you have your facts wrong.

Ben has capacity of 630 and Mannanan 860. They do two round trips per day each. But it’s a slow build up with  space on inward sailings until the Friday of practice week, before the races proper, start and on the Thursday and Friday of race week. There’s always space. So it’s  6 or 7 days full, 4 days at 75% and 3 days at 50%. 

There’s no justification for your 90% projection as  being TT fans on planes or the boats. Possibly 75%. You know we Manxies still travel to and fro, even during TT fortnight.

For flights the build up is much the same. With nothing like as many in practice week as in TT week, and with race days morning flights being busy with day trippers. Again there are lots of locals and there are always seats. At a price. 

The limiting factor nowadays is accommodation 

If I had to “guess” I’d say 45,000 tops. More likely closer to 40,000.

DoI claim 46,000 in 2019, the highest since records in present format began. DOI are known for wildly optimistic over estimation. So it won’t be more than that. And the true figure will be considerably lower.
 

 

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1 hour ago, thesultanofsheight said:

It will be great when this covid death crisis ends so that we can get straight back to resurrecting the annual festival of motorcycle death. Odd they can lock us up in this island for our own protection but the minute this is all over we’ll be inviting riders back explicitly to risk killIng themselves in the IOM. They died doing what they loved we’ll cry from behind our masks on our way back to our covid bunkers like obedient citizens :lol:

My guess is you need to step away from this topic. You're going to end up in a psychiatric ward

 

eta this also applies to the Covid thread... :thumbsup:

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43 minutes ago, John Wright said:

It’s a poor guess, because you have your facts wrong.

Ben has capacity of 630 and Mannanan 860. They do two round trips per day each. But it’s a slow build up with  space on inward sailings until the Friday of practice week, before the races proper, start and on the Thursday and Friday of race week. There’s always space. So it’s  6 or 7 days full, 4 days at 75% and 3 days at 50%. 

There’s no justification for your 90% projection as  being TT fans on planes or the boats. Possibly 75%. You know we Manxies still travel to and fro, even during TT fortnight.

For flights the build up is much the same. With nothing like as many in practice week as in TT week, and with race days morning flights being busy with day trippers. Again there are lots of locals and there are always seats. At a price. 

The limiting factor nowadays is accommodation 

If I had to “guess” I’d say 45,000 tops.

DoI claim 46,000 in 2019, the highest since records in present format began. DOI are known for wildly optimistic over estimation. So it won’t be more than that.
 

 

630 and 860 make 1,500, which is what i said. I really don't think many people travel to the iom for non TT reasons during these 2 weeks.

I guessed there were 3 crossings, but your correct it's only 2. I still think it's at least 90% TT visitor's as the ferry is booked up a year ahead. I think from tue of practice week to wed of race week is 100% full, and 80% full other times of the 2 weeks, so my 90% is fair. That gives adjusted figure of 22,000 by ferry

Ok, reduce plane capacity to 80% over for TT, which i think is low, but that still gives 36,000.

Total 58,000, less 5% tolerance leaves 55,000. You guess 45,000, i guess 55,000 so my original guess of 50,000 isn't far off the mark.

C'mon Dilli, you say there's not a chance in hell of 50,000. How many do you think??

 

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1 hour ago, thesultanofsheight said:

It will be great when this covid death crisis ends so that we can get straight back to resurrecting the annual festival of motorcycle death. Odd they can lock us up in this island for our own protection but the minute this is all over we’ll be inviting riders back explicitly to risk killIng themselves in the IOM. They died doing what they loved we’ll cry from behind our masks on our way back to our covid bunkers like obedient citizens :lol:

One of the stupidest things I've heard, combining covid and TT, is that sidecar racing can't happen because it's impossible for the driver and monkey to socially distance while hurtling round the course on a plank of wood, literally risking decapitation on every corner.  But as long as they don't get covid :rolleyes:

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42 minutes ago, winnie said:

630 and 860 make 1,500, which is what i said. I really don't think many people travel to the iom for non TT reasons during these 2 weeks.

I guessed there were 3 crossings, but your correct it's only 2. I still think it's at least 90% TT visitor's as the ferry is booked up a year ahead. I think from tue of practice week to wed of race week is 100% full, and 80% full other times of the 2 weeks, so my 90% is fair. That gives adjusted figure of 22,000 by ferry

Ok, reduce plane capacity to 80% over for TT, which i think is low, but that still gives 36,000.

Total 58,000, less 5% tolerance leaves 55,000. You guess 45,000, i guess 55,000 so my original guess of 50,000 isn't far off the mark.

C'mon Dilli, you say there's not a chance in hell of 50,000. How many do you think??

 

I have the advantage of living here and travelling frequently, even during TT. There’s lots of non TT passengers on the boats and planes.

You are vastly over estimating the number of days that boats and planes are at full capacity and the number of passengers who travel on those days who are travelling for TT.

You started at 50k then jumped to 70k. Both are way out. By between 25% and 75%

The official figures, which are widely accepted as fiddled upwards, registered 46k last year. The figure in reality is nearer 40k.

The occupancy/load/seat figures and full days and quieter days support a 40-45k range. Your figures are pulled out of the air. You’re well qualified to make up the visitor survey for DoI 

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I'd suggest 35k - 40k tops. Admittedly, just from a gut feeling of how busy it seems and the number of people about and attending the various events.

And a lot, lot less than that for last year's FOM figure, despite DfE's claimed incredible numbers. If they claim it, you can halve it to find the true figure.

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10 hours ago, Barlow said:

Actual nonsense.

We live in a democracy. Which elected politicians are anti-TT? I reckon none of them. althouygh I once knew an MHK who was anti-TT but they knew full well to keep that quiet, otherwise they simply would not have been elected and re-elected (numerous occasions).

 

 

I personally doubt that former hotelier Mr Robertshaw is a massive enthusiast for it's continuation

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1 hour ago, John Wright said:

I have the advantage of living here and travelling frequently, even during TT. There’s lots of non TT passengers on the boats and planes.

You are vastly over estimating the number of days that boats and planes are at full capacity and the number of passengers who travel on those days who are travelling for TT.

You started at 50k then jumped to 70k. Both are way out. By between 25% and 75%

The official figures, which are widely accepted as fiddled upwards, registered 46k last year. The figure in reality is nearer 40k.

The occupancy/load/seat figures and full days and quieter days support a 40-45k range. Your figures are pulled out of the air. You’re well qualified to make up the visitor survey for DoI 

They don't need the help

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4 minutes ago, Donald Trumps said:

I personally doubt that former hotelier Mr Robertshaw is a massive enthusiast for it's continuation

I agree. Very perceptive of you. You are close but not the (ex) MHK I had in mind.

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