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TT 2021 ??


NoTail
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3 hours ago, winnie said:

How many do you think then??

My guess as follows:

I've been on the ferry's and flown over for the TT many times in the last 25 years, and i think at least 90% of all passengers on boats and planes for a two week period are coming over for the TT. The window starts middle of the week before it starts, and will run right up until senior day, so lets say 14 days at 90% are over for the TT.

Combined capacity of both ferry's is 1,500 and they are packed, so lets say 1,300 actual. Think there are three crossings each per day, so 36,400. 90% of that is around 33,000

Last June 86,000 people flew to Ronaldsway, so lets say 45,000 (every flight is full) flew over in the TT 2 week period. 90% of that is 41,000

That gives a total of 74,000 less another 5% tolerance to keep you happy, which leaves around 70,000 visitors over for the TT. Yes, some only come for the day, some come for a weekend, some come for just practice week, and some come for all 2 weeks. 

70,000 is my guess, what your's Dilli?

 

About 30,000 max for the TT and about 10,000, max for FOM. That’s being generous.

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1 hour ago, John Wright said:

I have the advantage of living here and travelling frequently, even during TT. There’s lots of non TT passengers on the boats and planes.

You are vastly over estimating the number of days that boats and planes are at full capacity and the number of passengers who travel on those days who are travelling for TT.

You started at 50k then jumped to 70k. Both are way out. By between 25% and 75%

The official figures, which are widely accepted as fiddled upwards, registered 46k last year. The figure in reality is nearer 40k.

The occupancy/load/seat figures and full days and quieter days support a 40-45k range. Your figures are pulled out of the air. You’re well qualified to make up the visitor survey for DoI 

I'd agree that 40-45k is about the average for the TT these days, the CTT and MGP is around 13-15k. This doesn't necessarily reflect on the TT's popularity though, rather the SPCo's capacity to carry people at the times they want to travel, the capacity of guest houses and home stay availability and of course the prices charged, which have escalated in the recent decade or so. When we were getting 80,000 or so TT visitors, we had 8 ships and hotels and guest houses everywhere, people only read about the racing exploits, nothing was on TV so you had to be here.  

I've attended quite a few MotoGP events, several are held at the time of a national holiday in their country, again leading to high prices, over a three day weekend. Some don't even get 40,000 through the gates, (some get 120,000) it's more about TV rights for the series organiser than the local government and circuit owners who rely on attendance at about £120 for a three day ticket and economic boosts to the area. They (local government and track owners) pay £4m to the organisers to bring the races to town for three days. On top of this they have the cost of policing, track maintenance and regular upgrades, staffing, marshalling, security etc etc, in fact similar to what we have to bear.    

I think anyone who argues that the TT doesn't bring an economic boost is out of their mind. It's a question of how can that boost be replaced if the races were no more? Nothing we have at present will ever bring enough people here to make tourism a significant part of our economy, we are playing at it. So if we want to have even the low levels of vibrancy which we have at the moment, the TT is our only answer for now! 

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Of course rather than speculate wildly about how many people come for the TT, we could actually look at the actual official figures for 2019, which estimated a total of 46,174.  John reckons this may be fiddled and being the DfE it wouldn't surprise me[1], though I suspect the dodginess is mainly on economic benefit side rather than actual passenger numbers which can be compared to the number that are travelling each day.  There may well be unconscious  bias operating in the survey gatherers though ("We're doing a TT Survey so I'll ask the guy in leathers") which can skew things.  But around 40,000 still seems likely.

Based on this survey (see Table 9) only 41% of air passengers were over for the TT[2], though 85% of sea passengers were (I suspect the latter is a slight over-estimate).  Interestingly only 32% of visitors come on a bike, though there may be some whose bikes come over in a van or pillion passengers travelling by air to add a few percent more.  In 2019 about 25% of visitors came from outside UK/Ireland, a percentage that has been increasing over the years (see Tables 6 (a), (b) and (c)), though there are fewer visitors from both parts of Ireland.

What always strikes me in these discussions about the TT is that so few people seem to not just to understand how the tourism market operates and what attracts people to come here generally, but that people don't even seem to understand why people come for the TT.  It's not really all about the racing but about the whole experience, of meeting up with other bikers and being surrounded by bikes and seeing friends and so on.  And a lot come because they also like visiting the Island or want to see what it is like (35% of TT visitors in 2019 were first-timers - see Table 4).  When the races were cancelled for foot and mouth, a lot of people still came anyway, despite the way in which bookings could be held over for the following year.  And this explains why you see groups of bikers over even outside race periods.

It's rather like Glastonbury, which people book before they know which bands are playing, even though that is the ostensible reason why they're attending.  Even local supporters of the TT tend to underestimate this and worry about changes to the actual racing, but it's the whole 'package' and the atmosphere that attracts people to the TT.  I suspect this means it will survive one or two years cancellation, though whether its continuation is justified economically is another matter. 

 

[1]  The report is actually published by the DfE/Motorsport Division, but I actually suspect most of it is put together by Economic Affairs, who normally do the passenger surveys.  Not least because I wouldn't trust the DfE to be able to produce even incorrect numbers about anything.  Airy bullshit being more their forte.

[2]  As usual with passenger surveys these were of departing passengers, here "between the Monday of Practice Week (27 May) and the Wednesday following Senior Race day (12 June)". 

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7 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

 

.

When the races were cancelled for foot and mouth, a lot of people still came anyway, despite the way in which bookings could be held over for the following year.  And this explains why you see groups of bikers over even outside race periods.

 

 

 

 

This didn’t happen. The roads were dead. It was nothing like the visitor numbers. There was a fatality at the 11th, and a plane crash and that was the news.

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57 minutes ago, Donald Trumps said:

To be a 'significant' part of the economy it would have to produce at least 5% of national income

I don't see that ever happening again

I think there’s a lot of income which doesn’t show in gdp eg home stays, the benefits to various sports clubs from using campsites, taxis, burger vans etc plus a lot of cash sales.

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19 minutes ago, Derek Flint said:

This didn’t happen. The roads were dead. It was nothing like the visitor numbers. There was a fatality at the 11th, and a plane crash and that was the news.

I agree, there were a few who came on bikes, probably hoping that there would have been some sort of atmosphere, but it wasn't exactly buzzing at all. 

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4 hours ago, wrighty said:

One of the stupidest things I've heard, combining covid and TT, is that sidecar racing can't happen because it's impossible for the driver and monkey to socially distance while hurtling round the course on a plank of wood, literally risking decapitation on every corner.  But as long as they don't get covid :rolleyes:

Not strictly true that for next year!

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4 hours ago, John Wright said:

I have the advantage of living here and travelling frequently, even during TT. There’s lots of non TT passengers on the boats and planes.

You are vastly over estimating the number of days that boats and planes are at full capacity and the number of passengers who travel on those days who are travelling for TT.

You started at 50k then jumped to 70k. Both are way out. By between 25% and 75%

The official figures, which are widely accepted as fiddled upwards, registered 46k last year. The figure in reality is nearer 40k.

The occupancy/load/seat figures and full days and quieter days support a 40-45k range. Your figures are pulled out of the air. You’re well qualified to make up the visitor survey for DoI 

I've never spoken to any-one not going over for the TT in 40+ ferry crossings or flights. Yes,  the Manx would be less than 50% 

Don't forget that lot's of people come over for 2 or 3 days and some just for the day, so not all of those 46,000 people are here at any once. 

What's the average time spent here? 7 days seem reasonable? That's 300,000+ days and nights, god know how many meals, pints and hotel rooms. Certainly a bloody good earner for the IOM.

 

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2 hours ago, Derek Flint said:

This didn’t happen. The roads were dead. It was nothing like the visitor numbers. There was a fatality at the 11th, and a plane crash and that was the news.

I said "a lot" not "most".  Even say 10-20% of normal TT visitors would be a lot given the high numbers there normally are, but it wouldn't make that big a difference in traffic.

1 hour ago, Max Power said:

I agree, there were a few who came on bikes, probably hoping that there would have been some sort of atmosphere, but it wasn't exactly buzzing at all. 

Yes that was my impression, but I think there were also quite a few older normal TT visitors in cars who took it as a normal holiday because they like the Island.  The point was they didn't have to come - the Government had guaranteed return of deposits etc if people wanted, and the Steam Packet and hotels were happy to transfer to the following year, which presumably most did.  The point is that the Isle of Man itself is part of the TT 'offering'.

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Obviously you cannot compare this year without the TT because people could not travel over but I bet if when travel restrictions are lifted if we had a year without the TT we would get a good number of holiday makers over anyway as the weeks the races are on are prime weeks weather wise especially May and June with light nights.   The TT deters a lot of visitors to the Island who just want a relaxing holiday on a beautiful Island enjoying the countryside.

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5 minutes ago, hissingsid said:

Obviously you cannot compare this year without the TT because people could not travel over but I bet if when travel restrictions are lifted if we had a year without the TT we would get a good number of holiday makers over anyway as the weeks the races are on are prime weeks weather wise especially May and June with light nights.   The TT deters a lot of visitors to the Island who just want a relaxing holiday on a beautiful Island enjoying the countryside.

You keep saying this but do you have anything to back that up with?

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No Neil I haven’t but if I lived away and decided to visit the Isle of Man May or June or end of August would probably be my preferred time.   When I go on holiday I usually choose these periods for various reasons.   I am not saying we would ever replace the crowds we get over for the races of course we wouldn’t but it would not be the end of the world scenario some people are visualising we would have to do some serious rebranding.   I think in the back of our minds we have always had a thought that the TT will not go on for ever for various reasons.   I do not hate the races used to go up and get all the autographs at the early morning practices when I was a kid, got some great ones too unfortunately lost the book :crying: but I do think if the TT ceased it wouldn’t be the end of our tourist trade.   Just saying .....

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27 minutes ago, Neil Down said:

You keep saying this but do you have anything to back that up with?

I can assure you that the TT kills hotel trading for a week either side of the 8 to 10 day event

This means you are overly busy for the TT period itself & paying staff to do little for a fortnight in total

It's just pointless

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