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29 minutes ago, pongo said:

Yep. But sell high and buy low makes more sense in a market which is apparently so cyclical. And use the profits for something else meanwhile.

Many bought close to $20k in 2017. The price dipped close to $6k in March 2020. Undermining the idea of it being a hedge against uncertainty.

Fair point but Bitcoin actually went down to around $4k in March 2020

So you are correct in your statement that its not a hedge yet..

 However even those who bought at the top in 2017 would have 3X their money by now if they held on. Not many Real world investments would have given such a return. 

Is crypto overvalued at the moment? It probably is .. if you remember the dot com bubble 20 years ago anything with a dot com at the end of the name went up to insane  valuations.   This doesn't mean that everything failed.. There are many who survived the burst and have given massive returns to those who held on .

Investing in altcoins right now is probably going to end up in losses unless you get lucky..

Many altcoins have not got back to their all time high from the last run .. So holding large stacks of altcoins as a long term hold doesn't make sense.. 

Btc has usually retreated around 70 to 80% from  the peak in past runs. But there is a lot of institutional buying this time around. So the retracement may not be that much.

I've been in crypto for around 8 years now and it's always btc pumping first followed by ETH and DOGE and then the altcoins .

So my strategy has always been to accumulate more btc before the end of the run using the altcoin pumps.. 

We are probably nearly in the end run now but this could continue for a month or two .

May has usually been a pretty rubbish month for crypto in general... so we could see a significant retracement here .

 

Retracements are essential so that the skeptics can say " I told you that crypto is magic beans" . Have been hearing that for 8 years..The funny thing is that many of the hardcore skeptics have significant holdings of crypto now..

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I thought magic beans had been rebranded as disruptive legume tech, so as to better demonstrate how they're causing us to totally rethink beans and the way they're used?

A similar growth over the next five years would see crypto being worth about 15% of all the investable money in the world. That ain’t going to happen.    I think BTC will be around long term, b

If I had a Bitcoin for every time someone tried to explain Bitcoins to me, I'd have a lot of Bitcoins and no idea what to do with them!

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The dot com bubble also resulted in significant infrastructure investment. And in many ways it was ahead of its own curve. Much of what seemed far-out then we take for granted now.

Crypto is a compatible revolution. 

High street banks = video shops. 

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16 minutes ago, pongo said:

The dot com bubble also resulted in significant infrastructure investment. And in many ways it was ahead of its own curve. Much of what seemed far-out then we take for granted now.

Crypto is a compatible revolution. 

High street banks = video shops. 

Yes.  In 2020 we saw the rise of decentralised finance and many projects now have billions of dollars locked up

In 2021 we saw NFT as the next big thing.. personally  I am skeptical of some of the stuff being sold for insane valuations.. But some of them seem legit ..

Edited by mad_manx
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1 hour ago, pongo said:

Recent VISA announcements back this up. They are falling over themselves to get into crypto now.

Meanwhile high street banks are cracking down on customers even buying and selling crypto + blocking exchanges etc. Panic mode.

Banks are cracking down because of the very real risk of fraud and dummies who get conned then suing the banks for compensation just because they made a payment through their accounts 

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4 minutes ago, Banker said:

Banks are cracking down because of the very real risk of fraud and dummies who get conned then suing the banks for compensation just because they made a payment through their accounts 

No it's not that. Some banks are even blocking the purchase of equities in listed companies with crypto exposure.

Meanwhile JP Morgan and others are opening crypto funds and other products for HNW investors.

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5 minutes ago, pongo said:

No it's not that. Some banks are even blocking the purchase of equities in listed companies with crypto exposure.

Meanwhile JP Morgan and others are opening crypto funds and other products for HNW investors.

Yes. Heard about that..HSBC used to be crypto tolerant but looks like they are not happy with anything crypto these days.. 

https://www.coindesk.com/add-coinbase-to-the-list-of-crypto-stocks-hsbc-wont-touch

 

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2 hours ago, Albert Tatlock said:

BTC will get shut down soon IMO...dodgy cash...same energy bill as all of Argentina? Easy climate win.

Rejected...gone.

Panic as it pours into other coins.

And how would they shut it down, that's tripe

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1 hour ago, 2bees said:

It seems to me like lots of people are messing around with a couple of quid in various bit coins, is this the same for everyone or?

I would say so.  I don't know many under pension age who don't have a buy put aside.

I have one mate who gets paid in it.  He takes half his salary each month in btc and half in gbp.

Wonder how hany the Thirsty Pigeon held onto from when they first started taking them as payment for beer a few years ago?

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I've messed about with it here and there, but whenever I've been in a position to really buy in, it has always been at a peak.

Of course, if I think about the number of Doge I mined nearly a decade ago, I'd feel sick, same with various altcoins, and even bits of Bitcoin. I think I lost a reasonable amount when Cryptsy went down too, I might even have had some in Mt Gox.

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I haven't got the balls to leave much in long term but made another 20% return before chickening out and turning  it back to pounds in a couple of hours this morning.

Would love to have enough spare cash at the moment to drop a few k in there and leave it for a couple of years - alas I haven't at the moment.

If I had rented a house and invested the money from the last time I purchased one I could retire now and have houses all over the world.

Apparently property was a safe bet.  Ain't hindsight wonderful.

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5 minutes ago, trmpton said:

I haven't got the balls to leave much in long term but made another 20% return before chickening out and turning  it back to pounds in a couple of hours this morning.

 

The best game to be in is be a crypto broker.  For the 20% you made, the exchange will have made 3-4% depending on the coin you trade via the bid/offer spread (less than 1% for BTC, but more like 3 for the rest, at least on my exchange).  And that's without any risk to them - they'd still be up if you'd lost 20%.

I'm planning to do exactly as you suggested - cashed in some premium bonds this morning (interest rate about 0.000001%, at least it seems that way) and when the cash comes through will buy a range of crypto and leave it for 6-9 months as my estimate of being just before the bubble bursts.  

It is a gamble though - certainly wouldn't advise anyone to do the same with borrowed money, or even money they would miss.

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I am turning a nice profit at the moment by investing a couple of hours a day, but for now turn pretty much everything back into gbp when I am done for the day and have to start real work as I don't want to get caught up in having to check constantly to see if it's tanked.

Once the novelty wears off and I stop buying toys with the profits I will endeavour to build a pot I can be a bit braver with.

In the process of renovating and seeking a house so should have a nice lump sum in 3 to 6 months.

Would I be brave enough to rent for 12 months and try and turn a percentage of said lump sum into a life changing amount of money? Yes.

No way the Mrs would let me do that though. 

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