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Spat between Chief Minister and Dr Glover


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2 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

The Steam Packet Report actually contains some interesting evidence of just how useful genomics would have been if government had accepted Rachel's offer to sequence the viral genomes from the first patients in the February outbreak:

5.4.8 The first positive case notified to Contact Tracing in relation to the February 2021 outbreak was a UK/Non-IOM member of the Steam Packet crew. However I have noted from discussions with Contact Tracing that, whilst it is their clear view that this was the originating source for the February 2021 outbreak, the subsequent genomics data has only identified the infection as being ‘Kent variant’ and has not provided information to categorically link the outbreak to this as ‘case zero’.

5.4.9 Following the notification of the first positive UK crew member case, the Contact Tracing team made immediate contact with the crew member to identify high risk contacts in order to place them into isolation prior to spreading the infection.

5.4.10 However none of the seven high risk contacts identified and placed in isolation subsequently tested positive for Covid.

5.4.11 Subsequently, instead 4 other IOMSPCo crew members that had not been previously identified as High Risk and so had consequently not been placed in self-isolation, tested positive 7 days later.

5.4.12 By this time it is apparent that the virus was spreading in the community and manual Contact Tracing would not have had the resourcing capacity to successfully implement the Test, Trace and Isolate strategy to prevent a full community lockdown.

Of course it's not just the lack of genomics that was the problems here.  The refusal to regularly test people and to test widely when there was any new case detected are the main problems here and if done might have limited the outbreak.  But proper genomics would have reassured us that the outbreak was limited it it had been done - instead it appears that we still aren't certain of the cause.

Ill agree with one thing you have said Definitely "not just the lack of genomics"

If a person gets off the boat full of infection, then spends the day and evening visiting busy coffee shops, hair salons and bars. Infecting folks merrily all morning day and evening. How the hell would genomic testing 5 days later (at least) helped? As I said before horse long gone and damage done. 

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2 hours ago, Happier diner said:

Ill agree with one thing you have said Definitely "not just the lack of genomics"

If a person gets off the boat full of infection, then spends the day and evening visiting busy coffee shops, hair salons and bars. Infecting folks merrily all morning day and evening. How the hell would genomic testing 5 days later (at least) helped? As I said before horse long gone and damage done. 

It would have told them that all those people were infected in the same location and linked back to the index patient, five days after they showed symptoms and tested positive with the Liverpool lab's turnaround. Clearly this is 1000% more useful if you know it <24hours after the positive result. Linking cases to each other, genomically or through contact tracing, shortens lockdowns. Genomics links cases that contact tracing has failed to do (unfortunately people lie, especially so when the penalty might be a holiday in Jurby).

If I had all the Isle of Man COVID genomic sequences in my hands, right now, I could tell the IoM Government within 2-3 hours whether the March outbreak was entirely caused by the Steam Packet index case or was a combination of Steam Packet index case and continued transmission from the January outbreak. Do you think that's something that should be determined? I do. 

Edited by rachomics
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1 hour ago, The Voice of Reason said:

fat howie?

You’re quite right to query that. Shocking failure to capitalise a proper name. It should of course be fat Howie.

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2 hours ago, rachomics said:

 Clearly this is 1000% more useful if you know it

10 times more useful than being 100% certain of knowing something?   That's either a superfluous amount of percentage going to waste,or is evidence a self proclaimed super being is amongst us who has no knowledge of basic mathematics but has perhaps been bestowed with an extra 100 digits with which to count. 

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3 hours ago, rachomics said:

It would have told them that all those people were infected in the same location and linked back to the index patient, five days after they showed symptoms and tested positive with the Liverpool lab's turnaround. Clearly this is 1000% more useful if you know it <24hours after the positive result. Linking cases to each other, genomically or through contact tracing, shortens lockdowns. Genomics links cases that contact tracing has failed to do (unfortunately people lie, especially so when the penalty might be a holiday in Jurby).

If I had all the Isle of Man COVID genomic sequences in my hands, right now, I could tell the IoM Government within 2-3 hours whether the March outbreak was entirely caused by the Steam Packet index case or was a combination of Steam Packet index case and continued transmission from the January outbreak. Do you think that's something that should be determined? I do. 

But the infected person didn't present for test for 4 days after visiting the high risk locations. I wasnt inferring that it would take you 5 days to get the results.

Does that make sense?

I believe the person from the spco became ill a few days after leaving the boat.

If they presented and tested same day I would understand  the theory.

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13 hours ago, Happier diner said:

But the infected person didn't present for test for 4 days after visiting the high risk locations. I wasnt inferring that it would take you 5 days to get the results.

Does that make sense?

I believe the person from the spco became ill a few days after leaving the boat.

If they presented and tested same day I would understand  the theory.

 At the time the original positive case was identified they didn’t know the original source of infection, it wasn’t determined if it was linked to the original case or if it was a separate case entirely, genomics would’ve told us that it was (probably quicker than contact tracing did) and that would’ve helped with the containment.

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2 hours ago, Boris Johnson said:

Should it not be in fact Fat Howie? as it is his title around these parts?

If that is now an acknowledged title then yes indeed, Fat Howie. If simply descriptive, then fat Howie.

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23 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

I can't see how you can blame Dr Glover for this.  It's quite clear from the evidence that she gave to the PAC that she tried hard to regularise various aspects of her employment by the DHSC (and remember she was still trying to 'run her business' at the same time).  And the DHSC did their usual thing of doing nothing until the last minute and then trying to impose whatever the first thing that they thought of was, without bothering to think of the consequences.  You can't come to an agreement all on your own.

I'm not blaming Dr Glover for anything.

I'm quite sure that she is a highly motivated individual who just wanted to help out. Which to me makes the "letter" absolutely appalling. Because it was obviously targetted. The why I have no idea. But then, apart from mf I don't look at any other iom online content. 

I think some of the faux outrage is a little overdone. Had I bought a bit of kit and I knew a member of my team knew how to operate it if it was urgent I would have asked them to go and work their magic. Mind you, I probably wouldn't have bought it if nobody knew how to use it....

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1 hour ago, Annoymouse said:

 At the time the original positive case was identified they didn’t know the original source of infection, it wasn’t determined if it was linked to the original case or if it was a separate case entirely, genomics would’ve told us that it was (probably quicker than contact tracing did) and that would’ve helped with the containment.

I'm sorry. I still don't see how. It was already out of containment before the person tested positive.

If you re read the news the person visited numerous venues which were posted as 'high risk' after news of the positive test was released. The test result was on the Friday but the person had visited the high risk venues previous Monday to Wednesday.  Subsequent testing of persons coming forward found more positives. That tells me the person was infectious.

Now call me stupid but I genuinely can't see how genomics could help 5 days after the horse has bolted. It might help with the stewards enquiry but certainly would not help with the containment.

Unless it has some kind of time machine capability. 

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