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Spat between Chief Minister and Dr Glover


Manx Bean
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25 minutes ago, Nom de plume said:

 

I'm hoping a combination of the falling daily UK infection rate coupled with the vaccine rollout we've half a chance of being able to move about by Easter. 

I think you're right.  I said long ago (maybe on here, but certainly in real life) that we'd have a vaccine by the end of the year, that it may not be that effective, but it would allow society to just get on with it accepting that covid is still around but doesn't do much harm to the majority of people who get it.

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33 minutes ago, asitis said:

The government struggle to buy a waterslide, so forgive me if I'm not filled with optimism !

To be fair they found it very easy to buy a waterslide - they just couldn't buy one that worked.  The problem is that not having effective diagnostic tests may have more serious consequences than a few disappointed children. 

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1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

You can move about now, you've just got to jumps through some hoops.

Hence my question regarding the Governments testing capabilities without the assistance of Dr. Glover.

I’m fully versed in the quarantine requirements having recently gone through the joys of 14 day self isolation for a two day essential business trip!

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On 12/3/2020 at 7:57 AM, The Dog's Dangly Bits said:

Corruption you say? Go on then, give us some examples .

Typical Manx Mafia bait attempt. We all know the provision of examples would result in swift legal action and that any outcome of such action would not result in truth but merely in the party with the most expensive lawyer winning the day.

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4 hours ago, wrighty said:

I think you're right.  I said long ago (maybe on here, but certainly in real life) that we'd have a vaccine by the end of the year, that it may not be that effective, but it would allow society to just get on with it accepting that covid is still around but doesn't do much harm to the majority of people who get it.

Depends if Howie & Ashie want to allow the IOM to move forward or keep the borders closed.

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40 minutes ago, the stinking enigma said:

Ive already paid top dollar to taxagenomics for one of these tests. Turns out my old fella was a Schnauzer. Still, it's nice to know.

Your old fella.....Oh, you meant your Dad. Sorry.:flowers:

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5 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

UK daily infection rate seems to be around 14,000. Based on a population of 65 million, that equates to a 0.02% chance of catching the virus.

What then the risk of developing life threatening symptoms?

I'm hoping a combination of the falling daily UK infection rate coupled with the vaccine rollout we've half a chance of being able to move about by Easter. 

The vaccine is the go ahead to get back to normal.

Expect these punitive restrictions to drop away by March.

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6 hours ago, Nom de plume said:

UK daily infection rate seems to be around 14,000. Based on a population of 65 million, that equates to a 0.02% chance of catching the virus.

Not quite.  The latest ONS estimates are:

During the most recent week (22 to 28 November 2020), we estimate there were 4.71 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 4.09 to 5.40) in the community population in England, equating to around 25,700 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 22,300 to 29,400); the incidence rate has decreased in recent weeks.

Which is more than 14,000.  I think you confused it with the number of daily new cases, though even that is starting to rise again after the end of November.   And that's just the chance of catching Covid on a particular day.  The same report says:

during the most recent week (22 to 28 November 2020), we estimate 521,300 people (95% credible interval: 490,600 to 552,600) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 105 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 110 to 1 in 100).

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20 hours ago, Roger Mexico said:

Not quite.  The latest ONS estimates are:

During the most recent week (22 to 28 November 2020), we estimate there were 4.71 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 4.09 to 5.40) in the community population in England, equating to around 25,700 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 22,300 to 29,400); the incidence rate has decreased in recent weeks.

Which is more than 14,000.  I think you confused it with the number of daily new cases, though even that is starting to rise again after the end of November.   And that's just the chance of catching Covid on a particular day.  The same report says:

during the most recent week (22 to 28 November 2020), we estimate 521,300 people (95% credible interval: 490,600 to 552,600) within the community population in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19), equating to around 1 in 105 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 110 to 1 in 100).

Just checked the official data Roger.

Rolling 7 day average (Dec 1 - Dec 7) was 15,742 new infections per day so slightly more than the 14,000 I stated.

It seems the majority of new infections are now in the Greater London area. Their figures are quite alarming in some boroughs and must surely see them move into Tier 3 when reviewed next week.

What is significant is the fairly rapid decline of the virus in the North West (Liverpool now at 88 per 100,000 as opposed to 750 per 100,000 only a few weeks ago) where Howard Quayle cited the rationale for our particularly rigid quarantining stance. Let us hear him quote these numbers at the next briefing and react in the manner accordingly. 

Edited by Nom de plume
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