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Vaccine- who will have it?


Banker
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16 minutes ago, Nellie said:

Yesterday, Ashford said the overall plan is to have all over 50's, plus (by implication) health and care staff, and vulnerable under 16-49's double dosed, by the end of May. I'd estimate that's around 55,000 jabs.

This sounds like a reasonable objective, and comparable to the aspirations of other jurisdictions.

But, it will need a very significant acceleration from where we are now, to an average of around 3,000 per week, so it wouldn't be unreasonable for the journos and public to be pressing to see the week by week schedule, and logistics, that underpins this. 

It's going to be more than 55,000 - there were about 35,000 over 50 in the 2016 Census so at least 70,000 add in staff and the vulnerable and it's a lot.

Edited by Roger Mexico
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13 minutes ago, John Wright said:

But they aren’t our peers. Their situation is somewhat different. I understand they may have received extra doses. Gibraltar certainly has.

It may be to do with supply line length, or just be politics. They were expecting to receive 35,000 doses this week but in fact received 70,000. 

I would say Channel Islands are our peers and Howie keeps comparing us to them, they get exactly the same allocation per capita as us so Jersey will get more & Guernsey less.

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21 minutes ago, Banker said:

I would say Channel Islands are our peers and Howie keeps comparing us to them, they get exactly the same allocation per capita as us so Jersey will get more & Guernsey less.

All the CD, DoT etc were supposed to get pro rata. I’m just pointing out that it hasn’t necessarily worked out that way  in terms of delivery schedule.

In fact Gib isn’t just vaccinating it’s own population but 22,000 cross border workers.

Gibraltar got a first delivery this week of nearly 7000 doses.

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1 hour ago, John Wright said:

You clearly haven’t understood the approach. No, the answer to the question what is the rush isn’t obvious.

We’re way ahead of most of the world, even most of Europe. Bleating repeatedly  that IOM sat on its arse doesn’t make it true, especially if there’s a valid plan for delivery.

the bleeding obvious is

we aren’t way behind

we have a delivery plan

its better than that of the UK

there actually isn’t a rush.

The paper work is something that’s been seized on and it’s a distraction.

On advice, from their experts, the plan is not to give someone the first vaccination if they don’t have the vaccine here already for the second. Yes it’s old fashioned and belt and braces, but it’s solid, good epidemiologically and valid. 

It was gamble. It will most likely be ok. If my nan died and she hadn't had the vaccine in time, but could have, but it was in the freezer for 3 weeks, I would be very unhappy....to say the least

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1 minute ago, Happier diner said:

It was gamble. It will most likely be ok. If my nan died and she hadn't had the vaccine in time, but could have, but it was in the freezer for 3 weeks, I would be very unhappy....to say the least

And you’d be mad if your Nan was in UK and had her first dose but was in the 50% non effective part of the population and caught it in week 9 and died. And your Nan would have been much more likely to be exposed in UK than here.

So, gamble, yes, but our odds of granny getting both doses and surviving are a much better bet.

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They must be doing vaccinations alphabetically as no several of mum’s friends in c&d booked in , she is on K so no letter yet. Already mid February for first doses so probably looking March for first dose for a lot of over 80s

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I think you are interpreting the OAZ Vaccine 52% effective incorrectly.
As i understand it the 52% refers to people who displayed ........ Little or No Symptoms.

Although the other 48% did display some symptoms NO ONE DIED AFTER HAVING OAZ Vaccine.

I don't mind being a little bit ill if I am in the "Did not Die" data column.

Edited by Overoptimistic
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7 minutes ago, John Wright said:

And you’d be mad if your Nan was in UK and had her first dose but was in the 50% non effective part of the population and caught it in week 9 and died. And your Nan would have been much more likely to be exposed in UK than here.

So, gamble, yes, but our odds of granny getting both doses and surviving are a much better bet.

Haha. No that's not right. I would have been angry because we had it but thought we would sit on it for 3 weeks before being bothered to start. 

I am not advocating the UK approach. Just getting on with it in an orderly fashion. 

I'll stop whinging when they get their fingers out and start the AZ vaccines instead of citing some BS about 

'Paperwork'

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6 minutes ago, Banker said:

They must be doing vaccinations alphabetically as no several of mum’s friends in c&d booked in , she is on K so no letter yet. Already mid February for first doses so probably looking March for first dose for a lot of over 80s

Well, see my note above about hitting the May target. If that is to happen, they'll have to have picked up the pace by mid-February, so maybe there will be more slots open, by then.

You're probably right about the alphabet, although it might have been better by postcode. Call IM1, IM2 and IM3 first, as there's a better chance they can make it to Noble's, so take up would be higher, and booking calls simpler to handle.

Writing to lots of elderly people in Bride and Dalby will just generate a lot of long conversations about 'how I can't get to Nobles'. Those folk could then be offered something closer to home, in due course.

 

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I love it when zillions of countries are already using Pfizer Vaccine, and even falling out with fellow EEC countries over stolen allocations etc., so desperate are they to get the life saving injections into their citizens' arms.

Yet  IoM needs to study it for days/weeks in order to bring all their additional medical expertise to bear on the World Dash to Vaccinate using this WHO approved product.

.............. ONLY in the Isle of Man, because we can  🤣 .................

 

Edited by Overoptimistic
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17 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

Haha. No that's not right. I would have been angry because we had it but thought we would sit on it for 3 weeks before being bothered to start. 

I am not advocating the UK approach. Just getting on with it in an orderly fashion. 

I'll stop whinging when they get their fingers out and start the AZ vaccines instead of citing some BS about 

'Paperwork'

Strange how other jurisdictions can get paperwork sorted quicker, interesting to see where Guernsey are upto when they release statistics tomorrow, they are not following the 3 day per week route 

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And unfortunately the John Wright vaccination statement that  "There actually isn't a rush"   can only be stated with any authority if happen to be a clairvoyant.

This Virus is often spread by people showing NO SYMPTOMS and even by people WHO HAVE NOT INDICATED COVID IN THEIR LAST TEST.

So.............until we develop a helmet to wear with a flashing light that begins to blink 5 days before the transmitting person actually breaks out with Visible Symptoms.................it is difficult to be in total control of the epidemic.  Covid infection can accelerate at surprising speed and that growth becomes geometric as more and more contacts spread it covertly.

Yes we can stick our head in the sand, ignore the atrocious death rate in countries where the virus has got out of control, and just say to ourselves there is no hurry.

But if you had been bitten by a snake that "might" be one that is often fatal and the Doctor had the Life Saving Anti-venom injection lying on the shelf in his Fridge...................I am the kind of person that would harry him him to inject me NOW, not say    " Wait until you see me wrything in agony on the floor doc before you inject me in case I am one those who might survive".  

 

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39 minutes ago, Overoptimistic said:

I think you are interpreting the OAZ Vaccine 52% effective incorrectly.
As i understand it the 52% refers to people who displayed ........ Little or No Symptoms.

Although the other 48% did display some symptoms NO ONE DIED AFTER HAVING OAZ Vaccine.

I don't mind being a little bit ill if I am in the "Did not Die" data column.

Quite accept I stated it baldly to make a point. The problem with your statistic is it’s completely untrue and unsupported because the developers didn’t test the effectiveness of a single dose at weeks 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, so there’s no way of knowing how effective it is on a single dose between day 22 and day 83.

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9 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Quite accept I stated it baldly to make a point. The problem with your statistic is it’s completely untrue and unsupported because the developers didn’t test the effectiveness of a single dose at weeks 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, so there’s no way of knowing how effective it is on a single dose between day 22 and day 83.

I assume that you didn't watch BBC News NW tonight, featuring a special covid dicussion involving well-informed people? Suggest you watch it on iPlayer.

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Good to see Julie Edge MHK on BBC News NW tonight raise her concerns about the glacially slow roll out of vaccinations on the Island. At least someone in Tynwald has the courage to state the obvious!

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