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Vaccine- who will have it?


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50 minutes ago, TheTeapot said:

Out of desperation people have lost their minds.

What is the point of even carrying out trials of a new vaccine to check how it works if you just completely ignore it? May as well just authorise Sputnik V for use here too ffs. 

We did, its wrapped in tarpaulins on Balthane LOL !!

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It was quite revealing when at one of the briefings last week he spent quite a while explaining how the IOM's clinicians had debated whether to extend the period between doses, and it was a consensus

Who is talking about setting up in a cowshed?  There are plenty of nice, warm venues large enough to do this on the IOM without OTT adaptations.  

So it's not a bypass of fact checking that's accelerating this. Usually, vaccine development is a project like any other. Take the Prom for example. You put in an order or request for a bunch of

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20 minutes ago, John Wright said:

And low and behold the very thing the IOM vaccination policy was designed to avoid, interruption of supply, has come to pass, with pfizer announcing considerable drop in production for about a month.

Apparently a relatively small drop in production late 'January and early February' to allow for a manufacturing plant upgrade. The upgrade will allow production to rise from 1.3 billion doses to 2 billion per year. I can't find any figures for UK supply, but Norway are saying they expect to see their deliveries drop by 18%,  Eire are saying 50%..  
 

If the figures are good, it will only be a couple of weeks before they've made up the shortfall with new production capacity.

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11 minutes ago, madmanxpilot said:

Apparently a relatively small drop in production late 'January and early February' to allow for a manufacturing plant upgrade. The upgrade will allow production to rise from 1.3 billion doses to 2 billion per year. I can't find any figures for UK supply, but Norway are saying they expect to see their deliveries drop by 18%, wheee as Eire are saying 50%..  
 

If the figures are good, it will only be a couple of weeks before they've made up the shortfall with new production capacity.

I got the same figures. And yes, after the drop in output the rise will be good news.

However AP report the drop in supply as that it won’t be able to fulfill all of the promised deliveries in the coming three to four weeks.

For whatever reason the IOM has chosen to try to ensure that those vaccinated get both their doses from the same manufacturing batch. Not sure why this is important. Doesn’t seem to worry any other jurisdiction any where in the world.

Hopefully once AZ comes on line things will speed up. 

The delay in getting the Ronaldsway check in hall and Chester Street dungeon up and running is worrying. One next month and one the month after.

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3 minutes ago, John Wright said:

I got the same figures. And yes, after the drop in output the rise will be good news.

For whatever reason the IOM has chosen to try to ensure that those vaccinated get both their doses from the same manufacturing batch. Not sure why this is important. Doesn’t seem to worry any other jurisdiction any where in the world.

Hopefully once AZ comes on line things will speed up. 

The delay in getting the Ronaldsway check in hall and Chester Street dungeon up and running is worrying. One next month and one the month after.

Where did you get the info about batch matching? Are you sure it wasn't one of Mr Ashford's confused unscientific terminology utterances?

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Just now, madmanxpilot said:

Where did you get the info about batch matching? Are you sure it wasn't one of Mr Ashford's confused unscientific terminology utterances?

And if we’re getting a tray a week, and using it all in one go, how can we possibly ensure this ‘batch matching’?

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33 minutes ago, John Wright said:

And low and behold the very thing the IOM vaccination policy was designed to avoid, interruption of supply, has come to pass, with pfizer announcing considerable drop in production for about a month.

Yes. The boy vampire said so yesterday.

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32 minutes ago, wrighty said:

And if we’re getting a tray a week, and using it all in one go, how can we possibly ensure this ‘batch matching’?

 

34 minutes ago, madmanxpilot said:

Where did you get the info about batch matching? Are you sure it wasn't one of Mr Ashford's confused unscientific terminology utterances?

Ashford announced it at one of the conferences either just before or just after Xmas. 

I’ve  no idea what batch size is. They’re producing 3.6 million doses a day, increasing to 5 million by mid February.

PS. I’ve gone back to 20/12. That’s when Ashie confirmed initial vaccination roll out would be 3 days a week and that they had received the initial allocation of two trays, from same batch, and the first people vaccinated from tray one would receive second doses from the second tray. I’ve always assumed we were getting 2 trays of 975 nominal each week.

The reports of the briefing identify that the DHSC have a Vaccination Programme Board which has drawn up a model for delivery. I’ve looked, but can’t see it published. Why not?

I think I may have found the batch thing. Ashie is reported as referring to the two trays as a “batch”

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24 minutes ago, John Wright said:

 

Ashford announced it at one of the conferences either just before or just after Xmas. 

I’ve  no idea what batch size is. They’re producing 3.6 million doses a day, increasing to 5 million by mid February.

PS. I’ve gone back to 20/12. That’s when Ashie confirmed initial vaccination roll out would be 3 days a week and that they had received the initial allocation of two trays, from same batch, and the first people vaccinated from tray one would receive second doses from the second tray. I’ve always assumed we were getting 2 trays of 975 nominal each week.

The reports of the briefing identify that the DHSC have a Vaccination Programme Board which has drawn up a plan. I’ve looked, but can’t see it published. Why not?

There’s a question next week in Tynwald about what advice the vaccination programme board have given about vaccinations.

There are several other good questions on the vaccinations roll out

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1 hour ago, TheTeapot said:

I'd rather listen to the people who designed, made and trialed the vaccine. I've been through this earlier in the thread, given links, quotes like "there is no data" etc.

Each to their own though.

If there was enough vaccine to go round I would agree with you entirely - vaccinate people in accordance with the manufacturers' instructions. When the IoM Government initially decided to do that I was in support of it. But, if doing that for some people means that other, equally vulnerable, people have to remain unvaccinated for an unacceptable length of time (which now seems to be the case), I think that the pragmatic considerations (maximal disease prevention) and the ethical considerations change. If we cannot adapt our approach to changing circumstances, we are in trouble. If the vaccine supply improves to the point that we can deliver the programme as per manufacturers' specs without having to delay some peoples vaccination in favour of giving others a second dose, we can always change back again

Were you aware of the potential delays for some people when you were posting earlier in the thread? If not, does that change your view at all?

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1 hour ago, John Wright said:

And low and behold the very thing the IOM vaccination policy was designed to avoid, interruption of supply, has come to pass, with pfizer announcing considerable drop in production for about a month.

It's a bit early to start crowing and anyway it's a couple of weeks whilst they alter the process and RAMP UP production. It's only the Pfizer vaccine and not the AZ.

Good job we've got tonnes if it tucked away for a rainy day.

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2 hours ago, Newbie said:

That isn't exactly what has happened. The initial trial did a statistical analysis and showed 52% efficacy of the first jab because 52% fewer people in the injected group caught COVID than in the Placebo group in the 4 weeks following the injection. The JCVI have analysed exactly the same data, and have realised that the vast majority of the cases of COVID in the non-placebo group were in the first 10 days after the injection, when you wouldn't expect it to be working. They then isolated the data for the period of time after the first 10 days and found that the results showed a far higher degree of protection. It is just a different analysis of the same data, so they haven't completely ignored it.

I did some research and there is conflicting views on application times, efficacy etc. Lots of testing going on. Strangely they all concur on one thing..

Efficacy of oxford AZ vaccine that is stored in freezer waiting for 'final' protocols....0%

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24 minutes ago, Newbie said:

 

Were you aware of the potential delays for some people when you were posting earlier in the thread? If not, does that change your view at all?

I fully expected delays, of course. Almost everywhere in the world (apart from maybe Israel which is delivering for reasons) has put out very optimistic delivery schedules which were always likely to be unachievable.

My view was, is, and until there is actual verifiable evidence otherwise, that sticking to the dosing schedule as designed (certainly in the case of the Pfizer one, less certain in the ox cos their trials were suspect) is absolutely the correct approach.

Edit - I should add that I do think there is something weird about the IoM govs apparent desire to go so so slow. An abundance of caution, the Ashford way I guess.

Edited by TheTeapot
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6 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

It's a bit early to start crowing and anyway it's a couple of weeks whilst they alter the process and RAMP UP production. It's only the Pfizer vaccine and not the AZ.

Good job we've got tonnes if it tucked away for a rainy day.

Not crowing. Stating facts.

Pfizer ramping up production isn’t likely to make any difference to what UK gets or passes on to IOM. Think it’s 40 million doses of pfizer to 100million doses AZ.  Moderna is an also ran at 17 million. They’ve got 200million plus on order from 4 other developers  still in trial.

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I find skelly amusing enough. I thought his first lockdown trip to the chasms, when he was supposed to be announcing the testing figures, quite refreshing.  Not much of a defence but i had him down as a hapless chancer rather than a criminal mastermind. He's welcome to use my character reference if he needs it.

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