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Election Predictions 2021


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Don’t look at me with this.

On mobile it shows some weird betslip odds thingy and a payment info section. Maybe I caught it just as it was being removed? Can’t see it on desktop anymore. Looking at how all over the place it was with odds not making sense, it may have been some geek’s idea of making some money out of the project without realising the legalities. 
 


 

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32 minutes ago, Amadeus said:

Don’t look at me with this.

On mobile it shows some weird betslip odds thingy and a payment info section. Maybe I caught it just as it was being removed? Can’t see it on desktop anymore. Looking at how all over the place it was with odds not making sense, it may have been some geek’s idea of making some money out of the project without realising the legalities. 

I tend to think that's correct.  Presumably the guy has realised that it's potentially illegal and has removed all traces of the betting.  I'm very far from an expert in this field but even to me the odds made no sense mathematically, even without knowing who the candidates are.  When you do some of the decisions were plain weird.

So it was clearly someone outside the Island, unable to contextualise the odder results he got (presumably he can't do ACM because all the MR news stories with Tim Glover's name on made him look ridiculously popular).  

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2 minutes ago, Roger Mexico said:

I tend to think that's correct.  Presumably the guy has realised that it's potentially illegal and has removed all traces of the betting.  I'm very far from an expert in this field but even to me the odds made no sense mathematically, even without knowing who the candidates are.  When you do some of the decisions were plain weird.

So it was clearly someone outside the Island, unable to contextualise the odder results he got (presumably he can't do ACM because all the MR news stories with Tim Glover's name on made him look ridiculously popular).  

What's odd is when you try and look the guy behind the site up. He has a blank Facebook profile and a Google search turns up nothing on him apart from the Gef and manx radio articles.

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2 hours ago, Amadeus said:

Don’t look at me with this.

On mobile it shows some weird betslip odds thingy and a payment info section. Maybe I caught it just as it was being removed? Can’t see it on desktop anymore. Looking at how all over the place it was with odds not making sense, it may have been some geek’s idea of making some money out of the project without realising the legalities. 
 


 

6567B54A-9192-4CEE-B1E1-C8DEA94F6F7A.png

DDF190E6-745D-414D-830E-19F325EBEA7D.png

7C9A5984-085F-4343-B58F-6A14A0205686.png

F2197208-B133-450C-A2A9-E4EFB8F6D50D.png

Police are involved. Betting scam apparently. 

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11 hours ago, Ham_N_Eggs said:

What's odd is when you try and look the guy behind the site up. He has a blank Facebook profile and a Google search turns up nothing on him apart from the Gef and manx radio articles.

I worked out a potential candidate, but I won'y give details in case it's basically innocent or an ID hijack.  As I said I suspect it's just amateurishness and we'll see if it is if the site continues without the betting stuff (which wasn't there at the start).

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So who do we think will get in today. Mine are 

Rushen - Watterson and a close run thing between the other three I want the Green Guy but I think it will be Dr Michelle 

ACM - ABC (anyone but Cregeen) seems the popular choice, but maybe that vote will be split three ways? Moorehouse and Glover (just)

Middle - Double-Barrelled MLC to top the poll. DJ Gammon and MC Woke next. Both have wide support outside the constituency but outside the bubble of their own groups how is it going on the ground? I'm going to trust reason triumphs over gut instinct and Keeran wins. 

Douglas South - Christian and Maltby

Douglas East - Joany and Barber

Douglas Central - Thomas and Corlett

Douglas North - Ashy and Peaky

Onchan - Rob and Edge

Garff- Caine and Gareth

Ramsey - How cares, the whole town has gone potty about the marina when there's more important issues. It should probably be expelled from the Island - The Doc and the Chippy guy

Ayre etc -  see Ramsey - Cannon and the teacher lady

Peel - Double-barrelled MLC and Crookall

So 13 returning MHKs plus 3 recent MLCs back, strong MLP presence, Lib Van decimated. I feel quite positive but even if it's a reshuffle of the tired old faces at least it will give them a chance to draw a line under the Quayle period and start again. 

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I think John Wannenburgh might do OK in Douglas north, he's been winning hearts in Willaston & there are a lot of SA's who will vote for him just because he's one too. 

I hope you're wrong about DJ Gammon - I was talking to someone about him getting in the other day, it sends the wrong message, he is not a good/kind person. Keiran would be a radical choice, his heart is in the right place, for sure.

Good luck one and all (except for Leonard Singer)

Edited by 2bees
Change of heart :)
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After the unfortunate business with the betting and various Twitter squabbles, twentyfourkeys updated again last night:

ACM:  Still no prediction

Ayre & Michael:  Cannan and then tight between Livingstone and then Johnstone (it also shows Baker last, way behind even Boussougou - I don't think this will happen but it's extremely funny).

Douglas Central:  Thomas and then Ciappelli (the model probably underestimates online-quieter candidates like Corlett who work better in person).

Douglas East:  Faragher and then Barber (Josem a distant third)

Douglas North:  Ashford and then Peake a long way behind

Douglas South:  Maltby and then Christian

Garff:  Caine just ahead of Young

Glenfaba and Peel:  Harmer and then Lord-Brennan.  The model has always shown Harmer ahead of what other people think, though I'm not sure why.  Crookall third.

Middle: Peters way ahead, though that be the model automatically boosting media people.  Poole-Wilson just ahead of Hannifin.

Onchan:  Callister ridiculously ahead, then Edge

Ramsey:  Allinson way ahead, then tight between Parker, Hooper and Kinrade

Rushen:  Watterson well ahead, then Langan Newton just ahead of Haywood.  I suspect this underestimates Kemp

Some of these look sensible and most look more realistic than earlier - which is what tends to happen with models.

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