AcousticallyChallenged

Didn't the antibody testing initially estimate around 2k people that had been exposed to the virus? That's suggesting it's reached the Manx shores more than the figures say by a reasonable amount. The real problem is, you can't keep the virus in one population without it bubbling over. There is simply too much cross-over, unless you get all the support staff to lock themselves in with the vulnerable. But then, there's all the other supply chains for that, do they too then isolate away from those given the plague? If there was an ethical, safe way to put up a bunch of young'uns in their 20s into the mount murray, let them all get it, swap them out and repeat, there could be some value there. Pay em a few grand a pop, students do it for 'flu camp' quite happily. But even that is quite dangerous, still the odds of a few over time getting long-COVID or gnarly complications. There are papers suggesting long-term damage from the virus, even in younger populations.

I don't think there's a good answer for the UK. As a rule of thumb, the brits are too individualistic these days to be able to wear a mask for anyone but themselves. Even the 'don't kill your gran' messaging isn't particularly effective at this point. A lot of compliance to arbitrary 'covid secure' rules just isn't happening. Here, the fact that Doris in Castletown knows if you fart up in Andreas is working reasonably well to maintain a sense of community responsibility. People in England especially understandably have no faith in the restrictions as everything else has been so lackadaisically managed from the start. The UK is arguably over the edge far beyond rescue. You can't lock down again to reset, as you'll only be back where you are, as your mates millions of pounds worth of track and trace system is useless. So it's going to get worse before it gets better. Especially with high-profile situations like Manchester and armed police rocking up at the Liverpool gym. Realistically, here, we'd be wise to plod on as we are through this winter, we've got a lot more freedom than we could have, and businesses are better open and ticking over than shut with not enough in the coffers to support them and workers up until Christmas.

So, we could put it in simpler terms. If someone goes around stinking of poo, given the choice, you'd be as far away as possible. But within reasonable constraints, being 2m away from the source of the smell is a lot better than being right up against it. The smell of said poo is partially from particulates hitting your olfactory system. Less poo = less smell. Same with COVID, less virus gets into you, the less chance it has of actually infecting you. There's a good article in the BMJ about it if you want to read the history of why we use 1-2m as a ballaprk figure for droplet spread. Of course, it was thought that COVID only spread through droplets initially, but there's lots of talk it's also airborne, hence ventilation etc. helping. This is almost exactly what the 7 day test here was. Even the heavy suggestion of face mask is mirrored.

You don't like much substantiation do you? Why say lot words when few do trick? I think the fact we have no social distancing is invaluable to a good chunk of places here. Take 'The Other Place' in Ramsey for example, they'd get about 3 tables in instead of about 15. COVID spreading would impact that massively.

esting became much more widespread over that period, capacity has grown from 100k a day in May to around 200k a day since June, with a steady increase then. Tests per day completed have varied by around 10-20% since the capacity really got up in August. Test positivity in the UK has raised to 8% on some days in the past week or so, the WHO define it as out of control by 5%. So it's definitely in a much worse spot than it was. Hospitalizations are another good metric, and they were falling for a long time. Look at the deaths and hospital figures now, they're rocketing up again. Liverpool is claiming they're about to run out of ICU beds.

You need them to travel to quite a number of places. If it was somewhere like Zurich, they might well offer testing too. They did free antibody testing for staff a few months ago. It was in the news.

Well, let's look at it in the following light: In the run-up to lockdown, and during repatriation, it was drilled in not to take the piss. Most people returning were very glad to be, sticking to the rules as a result. Borders re-opened in August for travel back and forth, when prevalence in the UK was low. Prevalence remained reasonably low, so the odds of Jimmy coming over and jumping in bed with wifey with the virus remained reasonably low. Realistically, most people didn't jump into bed with their beloved, because of the isolation. Whilst there have been rumors and stories and the odd breach, it has all been at the time of relatively low prevalence in the UK. It's only with it rising again recently where we've started getting positive hits. At which point, people are again probably not jumping straight into bed, just in case. Now prevalence is coming up, the risk is increasing. Though we don't know how much eithout testing, which is another issue, Howie doesn't like numbers going up, we have to assume that risk is increasing somewhat in proportion to how the virus is spreading in the UK. Given the Manx government's hyper-cautious approach, it's not unreasonable to expect them to add something like that restriction.

That's been the next logical step for a while I reckon. I was lucky enough on return to be able to isolate entirely separately with my own bathroom. But a lot of people can't very easily. Anything shared is pushing luck.

The prices are about on par with the cost for private tests in the UK. Wish I'd known about the antibody tests sooner as I'm fairly sure I caught it before the lockdown across. Way too late to find out now. A lot of companies won't let people come into the office, if they have a family member self isolating, understandably so. I doubt that the virus has been ticking over undetected for any length of time though, there are too many vulnerable people also out and about where it'd knock one of them sideways. If there's no clarity today, tenner says there will be another conference in the next couple of days for Howie to either panic or try and reassure everyone.

With colds having been around for so long, has there not been some selective pressure for milder colds too? You're out and about much less when you've got a bad case of flu.

Surely though, there's an element, especially for returning residents of not shitting where you eat. It's a small island, a bit too Hot Fuzz sometimes but when you know everyone and their dog will snitch, you tend to be a bit more careful and very much don't want to be patient zero of a community outbreak. It's pretty much guaranteed that the welder isn't the only key worker and other residents have come back with it too, but, if the distancing is implemented, who else can actually catch it? Surely it's more telling that we've not had any community cases because we're effectively breaking the chain of transmission?

Well, look at the average age. If you've got a massively young population, then for the most part, it'll pass through quite readily. There aren't nearly as many people in anywhere near the vulnerable age groups. The problem we have is that there's no way to keep it in the young population. They mix at too many points, from care settings to family homes.

Please, tell me how we managed to control viruses in the past then. See polio, mumps, measles etc. So viruses can be controlled, and in the case of polio, defeated. So you can 'the state' this and 'the state' that. Have you ever actually seen any level of bureacracy? There are always fuck-ups at every level. Trying to get governments who are usually all at eachother's throats to collude would be like trying to get a bunch of cats to play Beethoven's fifth. CV is an event for a good proportion of people, median age for complications is somewhere about the 40s, where actually, unless you live in a very poor country, you end up with a lot of people to start worrying about. I know people who were seriously knocked sideways by it and they're in the 'healthy and low-risk' brackets. Bear in mind, that the real danger, is that with an underwhelmed health system, those death figures might be comparatively low, but as soon as care is stretched for the people who would usually make it, their odds start to plummet too.

The day 7 testing was really an appeasement exercise for folks wanting the border controls to be relaxed further somewhat, whilst keeping the 'shut the doors' brigade at bay. It basically meant that in specific cases, you could go back to work within a week or go for walkies. You were/are still encouraged to be distanced as much as possible. The Guernsey 7th day test allowed you everywhere bar care homes and medical facilities without prior notice. The island's approach of no news is good news is going to be problematic eventually. Might bite us in the bottom nearer Christmas as the influx of off-island residents living with people who are still able to go out and about will all but guarantee at least some community cases. Whilst revoking it now may well make sense given the situation in the UK, it was always a very cautious toe in the water to releasing people early.

He's still not making any particularly good points, it seems he falls in the disenfranchised seeking out a conspiracy to blame, COVID is fake etc etc. Realistically, there's no chance a mass global conspiracy would ever be pulled off. Have you ever tried to get a new recycling bin or a parking permit from the council? Bureaucracy simply wouldn't work for it.

There is no good way out of where we are unless COVID goes away. Either you let people in, expect some spread and manage it through social distancing, masks etc. Or you just lock down and hope for it to blow over. The former will upset a lot of people and disrupt a lot of businesses, the latter will keep on really pushing what a lot of the travel-related turnover isn't supporting. I agree that we are in a good spot and was a staunch proponent of the strict lockdown that works, but in essence, we are scuppered til the big Island get their shit together.

I think the next step will be whole households having to isolate if they have a traveler in with them. The bed they've made is hyper-conservative no community virus or bust. Though, Jersey, as the least risk-averse island has also started discouraging the influx of arrivals with mandatory quarantine. I think there will be a panic and heavy consideration of level 5 as soon as we do get confirmed transmission on the island, we're so back to normal compared to other places, that it could spread reasonably easily. I just fear for the businesses that'll be hanging by the skin of their teeth, especially for all the christmas parties etc. that won't happen if we're back flirting with lockdown.

If you look at the curve of being infectious, by the 14th day, with no symptoms either, the odds are pretty slim. There's a reasonable amount of evidence for asymptomatic people shedding much less virus, so being far less liable to spread it by the time they're out.

The rules have always been 'positive test = 14 day isolation for the whole household from date of test'. Or at least, since sometime in March. I think the boogeyman of a handful of cases is too much for some constituents to handle. Especially with a KEY WORKER! bringing it over. Lots of grumbling folks on social media want level 5 back. Their lack of faith in the 7 day test was clear from the start, you were still heavily advised to stay away from people, and to keep a log of any contacts etc. in case you ended up a super spreader.

I imagine most of the students will have the sense to acknowledge the benefits to their family, especially grandparents etc. that the Island currently affords them. They're not all idiots and most will know the contrast between the two places well.

I think the next big step will be when a household catches it from someone. That'll stir things up for a lot of people. And might make Quayle decide to make whole houses isolate again. I reckon by November as other posters have said. Lately, the rumour mill suggests that people self-isolating away from the rest of the house, aren't quite managing that, merrily socialising in the garden, or in some cases, hopping into bed after being away from their beloved for quite some time. I think we are in a very lucky spot to be in, but as time goes on, it is less and less sustainable. I've got friends and family who would class as severely vulnerable, and it is only by virtue of our current situation we can spend a lot of time together, without any social distancing or real precautions. The problem is, and the MHKs are finding, that there's no way to keep everyone happy, so actually, the easy approach is to keep the status quo.

UK Gov't being their usual wonderful selves, today's headline figure is 12.8k total. The caveat being that's including figures that were missed since the 24th of September. Looks like they're really starting to go belly up over there. This brings Thursday into the realm of approx 9k, a huge leap over previous days. Bear in mind this is to be added to over the next few days too. 38 were from tests taken yesterday 3,654 Thurs (34%) 1,313 Wed (12%) 558 Tues (5%) 618 Mon 1,263 Sun 794 last Sat 550 last Fri 724 last Thurs 721 last Wed 153 last Tues 69 last Mon 257 last Sun 94 from prior

MannCoin, if you read the whitepaper is really nothing special at all. Popular coins tend to have a USP that makes them stand out. Bitcoin - got there first, so is well established and to some extent rides on that. Simple but works Litecoin - designed to be harder to 'mine' with specialized hardware Ethereum - allows the 'blockchain' to do computation with smart contracts. In other words, you can do things like escrow etc. or even lottery-style things in a verifiable fashion Ripple - Designed to be less wild west from a regulatory perspective, focusing on enabling easy currency exchange etc. Monero - very popular for naughty things as it's fungible, coins aren't tainted with dodgy activity as bitcoins can be, and they're truly anonymous. Manncoin is just another 'create your own coin', trying to market itself with the Isle of Man because that sounds 'offshore'. It's probably on par with dogecoin, whose USP was the Shiba dog captioned with funny text.

I wonder if we'll see any form of immunity passporting in the future. Especially when a vaccine starts to roll out. If you rock up with a negative PCR or two and COVID antibodies, you're free to go. Though, they're allegedly quite short lived, and I think it'd far too easily encourage people to catch it so they can go back and forth without isolation.

Well, someone else lost the gamble today: https://www.manxradio.com/news/isle-of-man-news/one-new-active-case-of-coronavirus-on-island/ I'd be interested to hear what proportion of returnees are bothering with the 7 day test. If you've got an ample garden and can work from home, it doesn't necessarily seem worth the risk.