Tynwald Approval Rankings 2011 Results

[Declan]

Thank you to all who took part in the Tynwald Approval Rankings 2011 survey. I've closed the survey now and I'm now going through the results.

 

People were asked to indicate whether they approved or disapproved or had no opinion of the way teach member of Tynwald had done their jobs since the last election. I'll just put up the various tables as I go along and write up some commentary later on. However, as a general guide the scores show a less positive view from 2009's results, in particular many "No Opinions" have turned to disapproval, with many people expressing disapproval of all members or only approving of one or two people.

 

The overall ratings are calculated by taking the disapproves from the approves eg in a February poll Nick Clegg scored

 

Satisfied: 34%

Dissatisfied: 57%

Don't Know: 9%

 

So 34% - 57% = -23% Satisfaction (Cameron scored -13%, and Miliband -9%)

 

Anyway, the Ten Best ranking Tynwald Members were -

 

 

(Click to expand, MLC's highlighted in gold)

• Only Robertshaw, Watterson & Karran were approved of by 50% or more of respondents.
• Robertshaw was elected in 2010 so wasn't included in the 2009 survey.
• Watterson, Karran, Rodan, Turner, Gill, Cannell, The Bishop, & Quayle were the only ones who improved their scores from 2009.
• Gawne had a slightly positive rating until the last day when a sudden swing against him occurred. Did something happen?

[VinnieK]

• Gawne had a slightly positive rating until the last day when a sudden swing against him occurred. Did something happen?

 

 

Was there a particular influx of votes on the final day? It might be as simple as a sudden rush of people who've been putting off answering coming in at the last moment.

 

Also, how many people voted in total? Going from a slight positive rating to around -2% doesn't sound like too dramatic a swing for a small sample.

 

I think it's fair to say that Gawne's image has suffered over the past couple of years: Being in the DoI (or formerly the DoT) is always going to have an effect, being one of those departments everyone loves to hate. Some people haven't forgotten how he conducted himself during the RHA, some will have been a little alienated by the more ardent tone his nationalism has taken, he's now (fairly or not) linked with Richmond Hill and Bulrhenny's car park, and so on and so forth.

 

EDITED TO ADD: Thanks for doing this, by the way!

Edited April 9, 2011 by VinnieK

[Declan]

 

• 91.18% of people disapproved of Brown.
• the average rating was -25.61%

The largest negative swings are -

 

[Declan]

Re Gawne, it's worth noting he's still the highest ranking minister, and all ministers took a beating -

 

 

• Only Quayle saw an uplift in rating, and that was probably due to the Yazz effect.

Also, how many people voted in total? Going from a slight positive rating to around -2% doesn't sound like too dramatic a swing for a small sample.

 

102 - so maybe the swing isn't that dramatic. Also the swing began earlier 62% of votes were cast last weekend, at that point he had a +8% rating, those cast after Monday rated him at -20%. Incidentally Bell was more popular as the week went on(-13.11% pre-monday vs post-Monday+8%). There was a bit of a pattern of people approving of amongst the MHK's of Robertshaw, Watterson, Karran, Rodan, plus one minister, but the minister changed from Gawne to Bell during the week.

[Declan]

10 Most Approved

1 Chris Robertshaw 62.75%

2 Juan Watterson 58.82%

3 Peter Karran 57.84%

4 Steve Rodan 48.04%

5 Juan Turner 41.18%

6 Dudley Butt 39.22%

7 Phil Gawne 39.22%

8 David Callister 38.24%

9 Allan Bell 38.24%

10 Noel Cringle 31.37%

 

 

10 Most Disapproved

1 Tony Brown 91.18%

2 Martyn Quayle 80.39%

3 Bill Malarkey 74.51%

4 John Houghton 68.63%

5 Adrian Earnshaw 68.63%

6 David Quirk 67.65%

7 David Cretney 62.75%

8 Bill Henderson 62.75%

9 Geoff Corkish 61.76%

10 David Anderson 60.78%

 

 

 

 

Most "No Opinions"

1 Tim Crookall 45.10%

2 Phil Braidwood 39.22%

3 Quintin Gill 38.24%

4 Graham Creegan 38.24%

5 Bishop Robert Paterson 37.62%

6 Alex Downie 34.00%

7 Clare Christian 32.35%

8 Alan Crowe 30.69%

9 Brenda Cannell 30.39%

10 Geoff Corkish 30.39%

 

 

Least "No Opinions"

1 Tony Brown 4.90%

2 Peter Karran 7.84%

3 Martyn Quayle 12.75%

4 David Cretney 15.69%

5= Anne Craine 16.67%

5= Eddie Teare 16.67%

7= John Houghton 17.65%

7= Bill Malarkey 17.65%

9= Chris Robertshaw 18.63%

9= Juan Watterson 18.63%

9= Phil Gawne 18.63%

9= Allan Bell 18.63%

[Declan]

Can anyone explain Juan Turner's success?

[Mutley]

Can anyone explain Juan Turner's success?

 

He created hundreds of sock puppets and voted for himself?

[Theodolite]

David Cannan does not appear...?

 

To my mind, he is the most experienced, intelligent and capable out of the lot of them.

 

 

Edited to add:

It is Graham Cregeen, not Greegan. To be honest though, I don't think it particularly matters.

Edited April 9, 2011 by Theo

[VinnieK]

David Cannan does not appear...?

 

To my mind, he is the most experienced, intelligent and capable out of the lot of them.

 

I do think Cannan's a little underrated, though at times he doesn't help himself.

 

I can understand Robertshaw being so favoured since he's riding on a wave of good faith and hasn't had that long in the Keys so far. Not sure about Watterson's position though. He's a fair backbencher, but not that good. Having said that, he is one of the biggest PR hounds outside of CoMin, verging on political stuntman at times: the alternatve restructuring of government was so much cobblers, and if I remember correctly the Breastfeeding bill appeared to be in large part lifted straight from the Scottish law (fine amounts included) rather than thought through, but both were good at generating copy.

 

I suppose we should be cautious in how we read this though: last year Quayle was one of if not the most unpopular MHKs and he still got voted back in.

Edited April 9, 2011 by VinnieK

[Shake me up Judy]

Thanks for taking the trouble Declan, much appreciated and it makes for interesting comparisons. The overall results more or less reflected my own response too.

[EORH]

10 Most Approved

1 Chris Robertshaw 62.75%

2 Juan Watterson 58.82%

3 Peter Karran 57.84%

4 Steve Rodan 48.04%

5 Juan Turner 41.18%

6 Dudley Butt 39.22%

7 Phil Gawne 39.22%

8 David Callister 38.24%

9 Allan Bell 38.24%

10 Noel Cringle 31.37%

 

 

10 Most Disapproved

1 Tony Brown 91.18%

2 Martyn Quayle 80.39%

3 Bill Malarkey 74.51%

4 John Houghton 68.63%

5 Adrian Earnshaw 68.63%

6 David Quirk 67.65%

7 David Cretney 62.75%

8 Bill Henderson 62.75%

9 Geoff Corkish 61.76%

10 David Anderson 60.78%

 

 

 

 

Most "No Opinions"

1 Tim Crookall 45.10%

2 Phil Braidwood 39.22%

3 Quintin Gill 38.24%

4 Graham Creegan 38.24%

5 Bishop Robert Paterson 37.62%

6 Alex Downie 34.00%

7 Clare Christian 32.35%

8 Alan Crowe 30.69%

9 Brenda Cannell 30.39%

10 Geoff Corkish 30.39%

 

 

Least "No Opinions"

1 Tony Brown 4.90%

2 Peter Karran 7.84%

3 Martyn Quayle 12.75%

4 David Cretney 15.69%

5= Anne Craine 16.67%

5= Eddie Teare 16.67%

7= John Houghton 17.65%

7= Bill Malarkey 17.65%

9= Chris Robertshaw 18.63%

9= Juan Watterson 18.63%

9= Phil Gawne 18.63%

9= Allan Bell 18.63%

Looking at these lists convinces me that if everybody on this Island could vote for every MHK instead of just in their own area,we could eliminate the 10 most disaproved first of all,then the rest would go out on the percentages,in other words a mass clear out,I have always said that we should have a vote for every candidate standing,because they always go on about the politicians have to represent all of us on the world stage,not just parish pump,I know that this would mean Turkeys voting for an early Christmas,but anybody opposed to this must be very afraid they wouldn't get in,it's the local parish pump gang who elect these goons every time,so this election let's ask that question about changing the system of voting,it's useing that old word they like to use themselves so often,DEMOCRACY.

[triskelion]

Not sure about Watterson's position though. He's a fair backbencher, but not that good. Having said that, he is one of the biggest PR hounds outside of CoMin, verging on political stuntman at times: the alternatve restructuring of government was so much cobblers, and if I remember correctly the Breastfeeding bill appeared to be in large part lifted straight from the Scottish law (fine amounts included) rather than thought through, but both were good at generating copy.

His level of PR houndarey is nowhere Karren and Henderson's. A former employee of the Chief Secretary's office once told me that the process for drafting laws on the Island was:

1. See what the Scottish Government used
   
2. Failing that, see what the UK Government used
   

Then of course CoMin will wave it through.

[Theodolite]

CoMin plus their merry band of ar$elickers in the rest of Tynwald.

Edited April 10, 2011 by Theo

[Blade Runner]

Looking at these lists convinces me that if everybody on this Island could vote for every MHK instead of just in their own area,we could eliminate the 10 most disaproved first of all,then the rest would go out on the percentages,in other words a mass clear out,I have always said that we should have a vote for every candidate standing,because they always go on about the politicians have to represent all of us on the world stage,not just parish pump,I know that this would mean Turkeys voting for an early Christmas,but anybody opposed to this must be very afraid they wouldn't get in,it's the local parish pump gang who elect these goons every time,so this election let's ask that question about changing the system of voting,it's useing that old word they like to use themselves so often,DEMOCRACY.

 

EORH, like all the best ideas that is simple but brilliant, at a stroke we would have a truly representative gov. It really would get rid of the local issues getting votes, things that I have always said should be the remit of the commissioners/Town Hall.

 

Should getting the bus timetable, for a handful of Willaston residents changed, virtually guarantee the re election of one of the most disliked MHKs?

[VinnieK]

Not sure about Watterson's position though. He's a fair backbencher, but not that good. Having said that, he is one of the biggest PR hounds outside of CoMin, verging on political stuntman at times: the alternatve restructuring of government was so much cobblers, and if I remember correctly the Breastfeeding bill appeared to be in large part lifted straight from the Scottish law (fine amounts included) rather than thought through, but both were good at generating copy.

His level of PR houndarey is nowhere Karren and Henderson's. A former employee of the Chief Secretary's office once told me that the process for drafting laws on the Island was:

1. See what the Scottish Government used
2. Failing that, see what the UK Government used

Then of course CoMin will wave it through.

 

Ha! I like the story, even if I have a chill feeling that it's not even that much of an exaggeration. Agreed on Karran by the way, but is Henderson really that deliberate? I always thought he could just be a bit of a ranting nutter at times, on which basis he just happened to get in the papers rather than actively aiming for it.

 

Perhaps I was being naive, but I don't like this tale of super Hendo: political operator. I'd just assumed his 'episodes' were the consequence of a perpetual sulk at getting the sack.

Edited April 10, 2011 by VinnieK