Vaccine- who will have it?

[Nellie]

23 minutes ago, the stinking enigma said:

Cheers roger. I think he did actually say phase 1. 

No, he did say 'Group 1' which was the incorrect terminology. He's only been looking at that dashboard everyday since January, so it's understandable that he's not on the pace yet!

[Roger Mexico]

15 minutes ago, trmpton said:

So lets assume we really couldn't reschedule second doses, and it was impossible. The hubs were still closed for two weeks.....why have we done more first doses than second doses since the hubs reopened on Monday?

Surely they could have been done in the gap to allow more capacity for second doses this week.

Capacity (in the sense of being able to deliver the vaccines into arms) has never been the problem.   Even with the limitations they imposed on themselves they've had the people and places to that[1].   Where there may have been problems is in supply, both of the vaccine and in those wanting to be vaccinated.

The supply isn't just about levels of vaccine, but about mix of the different ones.  If they have decided to not use AZ on the under-40s for example, then having a lot of AZ won't help.

But there may also be a shortage of people left to give a first dose to if well over 90% of those eligible have already had it.  They actually did more under-50s on Monday than in the month before it put together, but they only were able to do a handful the next day, presumably because there were no more available to jab.  Most of those remaining will be unwilling or unable to have the vaccination, or will be hard to contact , have problems getting the time to get the the Hubs or so on.

 

[1]  They certainly didn't use many of those who offered to help, which they should have and let the NHS staff who were delivering the programme concentrate on their normal jobs.  But there doesn't seem to have been a problem in terms of there being people on the ground to vaccinate and administer the system.

[Happier diner]

On 6/17/2021 at 12:10 AM, Roger Mexico said:

Capacity (in the sense of being able to deliver the vaccines into arms) has never been the problem.   Even with the limitations they imposed on themselves they've had the people and places to that[1].   Where there may have been problems is in supply, both of the vaccine and in those wanting to be vaccinated.

 

I think that has maybe changed. We now have over 20,000 doses in stock. The so called 'supply shortage' is not happening.

7500 booked next 7 days (which is good) but clearly we cannot shift the doses as fast as they are accumulating. 

If capacity to jab isn't an issue then why are we not accelerating some 50 to 55s or even 45 to 50's instead of sitting on all this stock.

Doesnt need to be a big logistical operation, just ask for volunteers.

[Roger Mexico]

41 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

I think that has maybe changed. We now have over 20,000 doses in stock. The so called 'supply shortage' is not happening.

7500 booked next 7 days (which is good) but clearly we cannot shift the doses as fast as they are accumulating. 

If capacity to jab isn't an issue then why are we not accelerating some 50 to 55s or even 45 to 50's instead of sitting on all this stock.

Doesnt need to be a big logistical operation, just ask for volunteers.

We don't know if there was a shortage though - or if they just weren't drawing down stock.  If stock has only just become available then you can't have used it last week and the 10,000 or so doses that were in stock weren't enough in total to cover the next two weeks if things were brought forward.

And that's before you consider the mix of the vaccine stock they have.  Those due for vaccination in the next two weeks from Monday (13,684) had their first dose between 29 March and 11 April.  51% of these were Pfizer - just under 7000.  We know there is a problem with the supply of Pfizer at the moment and it's no use having loads of AZ if it's  not what you need for those second doses.  The same thing applies to asking people just to turn up - plus the fact you might get get thousands of angry trmptons all turning up at 9am on Monday demanding that they have their jab NOW because they are very special.

[Happier diner]

1 minute ago, Roger Mexico said:

We don't know if there was a shortage though - or if they just weren't drawing down stock.  If stock has only just become available then you can't have used it last week and the 10,000 or so doses that were in stock weren't enough in total to cover the next two weeks if things were brought forward.

And that's before you consider the mix of the vaccine stock they have.  Those due for vaccination in the next two weeks from Monday (13,684) had their first dose between 29 March and 11 April.  51% of these were Pfizer - just under 7000.  We know there is a problem with the supply of Pfizer at the moment and it's no use having loads of AZ if it's  not what you need for those second doses.  The same thing applies to asking people just to turn up - plus the fact you might get get thousands of angry trmptons all turning up at 9am on Monday demanding that they have their jab NOW because they are very special.

Yes I accept about the different types....although we cant be short of all types...so we could ask the AZ people only if that's the case. They would have to separate them anyway. Sometimes I think you must be our vaccines minister as you have all the (lame)excuses to hand.🤭

Fair point about @trmpton. There would be plenty of volunteers banging on the doors.

Anyway I'll be 1 week from 2+2 by monday so I wont be worrying anymore about myself. Not that i ever was.

[Roger Mexico]

52 minutes ago, Happier diner said:

Yes I accept about the different types....although we cant be short of all types...so we could ask the AZ people only if that's the case. They would have to separate them anyway. Sometimes I think you must be our vaccines minister as you have all the (lame)excuses to hand.🤭

It's not excuses, just pointing out that the logistics are more complicated than they appear at first sight.  And many of them are constrained by choices made in the past.  Some of what people are complaining about is the consequence of decisions they supported at the time.

It would help if the government were more open about the facts and explain the situation themselves, but they'd rather be wrong than be corrected.

[John Wright]

On 6/16/2021 at 1:31 PM, Roger Mexico said:

Well it's currently showing 62,396 first doses as having been administered.  Given that I estimated the over-18 population of the Island being 66,208 based on the 2016 Census.  That would be 94%, so at most it could be 6%.  There will be others who haven't yet had the chance, especially in younger groups, but it does indicate there's not the rates of refusal that many have been predicting.

The dashboard shows a phase 1 population of 72,284 aged 18+, so your population estimate may be low and your refusal rate understated. Looks more like 13-14% not first jabbed. 

There’s students still away. About 40%, I hear. So they may have had first doses in surge injection campaigns in UK, or they’ll catch up in July.

[AcousticallyChallenged]

For younger people awaiting their second jabs, there are a number of places around Greater Manchester offering second doses 3-4 weeks after your first dose, to whoever turns up.

Does your second dose get added to your Manx GP record if you get it in the UK? As that may be an option if so.

[trmpton]

1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

For younger people awaiting their second jabs, there are a number of places around Greater Manchester offering second doses 3-4 weeks after your first dose, to whoever turns up.

Does your second dose get added to your Manx GP record if you get it in the UK? As that may be an option if so.

There are places up and down the uK doing this, because it isn’t actually that hard to organise.

[John Wright]

1 hour ago, AcousticallyChallenged said:

For younger people awaiting their second jabs, there are a number of places around Greater Manchester offering second doses 3-4 weeks after your first dose, to whoever turns up.

Does your second dose get added to your Manx GP record if you get it in the UK? As that may be an option if so.

 

46 minutes ago, trmpton said:

There are places up and down the uK doing this, because it isn’t actually that hard to organise.

It’ll appear on both Patient Access and NHS App under immunisations, as part of your record if you give your NHS number and Manx GP practice.

Whether the system will then put two and two together and connect the English data set and the Manx data set, which are uploaded separately, conclude you’ve been jabbed twice, and generate the QR vaccination certificate, we will only find out in due course.

[DragonS]

There are young pregnant mothers out there who have registered for their jabs but are waiting until after their child has been born before actually having the jab. They are not allowed to book dates so far in advance and are now being told that there may not be any vaccine left by then and may miss out. This is because stocks are ordered in advance and depending on what vaccine is ordered there needs to be a sufficient number of recipients to make it cost effective and avoid wastage.

[Anyone]

1 hour ago, John Wright said:

 

It’ll appear on both Patient Access and NHS App under immunisations, as part of your record if you give your NHS number and Manx GP practice.

Whether the system will then put two and two together and connect the English data set and the Manx data set, which are uploaded separately, conclude you’ve been jabbed twice, and generate the QR vaccination certificate, we will only find out in due course.

It does not it would seem. If you get vac one in the Isle of Man and vac 2 in the UK ( England or Scotland as it seems they operate separately , not sure about Wales ) then you are a bit stuffed as the IOM vac does not go to the NHS app. It pretty much seems to depend on how good the Manx GP practice is at loading vacs. Mine is hopeless in that most of my flu jabs and my 2 year old pneumonia jab are just not recorded. Nor are most of any meds I’ve had. I think it’s a bit hit or miss. Mostly miss.

[Roger Mexico]

8 hours ago, John Wright said:

The dashboard shows a phase 1 population of 72,284 aged 18+, so your population estimate may be low and your refusal rate understated. Looks more like 13-14% not first jabbed. 

There is clearly some double counting going on in their "Selected IOM Population" (the figure is actually Phase 1 + Phase 2).  Otherwise there's either been a massive increase in population or King Herod's been busy.  There has to be more than 11,000 under-18s around.

[Lagman]

On 6/19/2021 at 8:17 PM, DragonS said:

there may not be any vaccine left by then and may miss out

I wouldn't worry about it, it's obviously a sales pitch to try and convince the unvaccinated to get it.

"You wouldn't want to miss out would you? this is your last chance to get one".

On 6/20/2021 at 1:47 AM, Roger Mexico said:

There is clearly some double counting going on

Lol, if anyone believe's the numbers -  "you wouldn't want to be the only person left to get one would you, everyone else has got one". Watch as they change the totals down the line, some miscalculation or error excuse.

 Fauci admits the CDC is 40 - 50 % unvaccinated -

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4963284/user-clip-fauci-admits-50-60-cdc-nih-employees-vaccinated

[John Wright]

On 6/20/2021 at 1:47 AM, Roger Mexico said:

There is clearly some double counting going on in their "Selected IOM Population" (the figure is actually Phase 1 + Phase 2).  Otherwise there's either been a massive increase in population or King Herod's been busy.  There has to be more than 11,000 under-18s around.

Under 18’s should be 14,000 approx