House Prices On The Isle Of Man

[Mission]

Is anything selling at the moment? I usually get a fairly steady stream of people in asking for empty boxes for 'moving' - not had anyone ask that for some time now - got quite a box mountain out the back of the shop!

[Snaipyr]

Mission - there's someone on Freecycle IOM asking for a large box to store her wedding dress in - that'd be one less!

[spermann]

House prices up by 4% on the IoM - what world do the local estate agents live in? Do they think people actually believe them - not. They are looking over a massive drop and are paddling like crazy to try and escape. The ass will drop right out the Manx market and soon, probably in the spring when people will start to try and sell.

 

I think the local house market has dropped, possibly by 4% or more, just the estate agents are trying hard to cover up the truth for as long as possible - the truth is out there.

 

but surely the stats from the land registry are true?

[Slim]

but surely the stats from the land registry are true?

 

Aye but as mentioned above, our stats are skewed by the size of the market.

 

Also worth mentioning that the average price staying constant 2007-2008 actually means a real terms drop of 5% ish, which is what inflation was running at for that year.

[Slim]

Unemployment will be the main indicator to watch here wrt house prices IMO, and once/if unemployment hits around the 1200 mark I predict a fall in house prices of around 15%.

 

I wonder how critical our work permit legislation/not being in europe will be now. We can refuse work permits to protect residents jobs if our unemployment starts to rise, the UK can't do this.

[pongo]

I wonder how critical our work permit legislation/not being in europe will be now. We can refuse work permits to protect residents jobs if our unemployment starts to rise, the UK can't do this.

 

It is just as possible that an equal concern may be whether our people are easily able to go into the EU to look for work if there is a shortage of jobs here. Currently some Manx people are restricted from working in the EU I think. It would make sense to try to get that restriction removed - perhaps as part of the process of setting up agreements about closer cooperation and exchange of information.

[Chinahand]

Unemployment will be the main indicator to watch here wrt house prices IMO, and once/if unemployment hits around the 1200 mark I predict a fall in house prices of around 15%.

 

I wonder how critical our work permit legislation/not being in europe will be now. We can refuse work permits to protect residents jobs if our unemployment starts to rise, the UK can't do this.

Short term gain, long term loss, as with most protectionist measures.

 

Our unemployment rate MAY be slightly less volatile, but I'd conjecture that the quality of our workforce is lower and companies are less efficient due to allowing unsuitable candidates get jobs not due to ability or suitability to do the job, but just an accident of birth.

 

Over the long term that will have real effects impoverishing the Island.

[Slim]

Short term gain, long term loss, as with most protectionist measures.

 

True, if this were a long term blanket policy, but you can run such things on a case by case basis given the size of our workforce. High unemployment, don't renew cleaner/labourer work permits, but we'll let some doctors in still, for example.

[Chinahand]

Yes, but bureaucrats are always behind the curve - and often have no idea where the curve even is. Software developers, financial analysts etc etc are needed and to try to get the work permit people to be flexible in a dynamic environment is almost impossible. Doctors are not representative of the shortages in our workforce, or how the bureaucracy responds.

 

Plus I'd keep the immigrant cleaners and so make the locals upgrade their skills.

 

I simply don't think it is possible to centrally plan what employment types the Island needs, but know from bitter experience that work permits complicate the selection procedure unnecessarily.

 

I'm firmly a believer that the current system should be scrapped and a new system brought it.

[Albert Tatlock]

Unemployment will be the main indicator to watch here wrt house prices IMO, and once/if unemployment hits around the 1200 mark I predict a fall in house prices of around 15%.

 

I wonder how critical our work permit legislation/not being in europe will be now. We can refuse work permits to protect residents jobs if our unemployment starts to rise, the UK can't do this.

IMO things would have to get to a fairly dire stage here before our WPS legislation/not being in Europe balance would really be of significant concern.

 

The WPS will be critical in terms of protecting local employees in the retail and construction sectors here (these sectors tend to employ many transient relatively low-skilled workers), and if applied properly will help protect some similar local workers/homeowners who may otherwise lose their jobs in these sectors. The way things are looking at present, I estimate 300 - 600 people could be affected by a significant downturn in these sectors over the next 2 years.

 

The bulk of the finance sector jobs here are in admin, and those types of jobs are usually the first to go when firms do less business and/or restructure business processes. However, in my business/employment/restructuring experience, such restructuring more often does take into account peoples circumstances e.g. family/committment/impact etc. (though not always). However, a significant downturn could eventually see up to a couple of thousand workers impacted over the next 2 years. A significant downturn in manufacturing here could add 500 jobs at risk to the list.

 

That's around, say, 3,000 people (jobs) if things got really bad. However, there are around 10,000 work permits issued each year on the island, so the system offers much flexibility and has a lot of room for manouvre, in terms of unemployment levels - if applied properly.

 

If we get to the stage where the official unemployment figure reaches e.g. 1200, then when taking into account a properly administered WPS, an unemployed total of 1200 would probably have meant that 3,000 jobs had been impacted in reality, though things would have had to get really bad to get to that stage. In terms of local jobs, the WPS acts as part of the economic buffer between the island v UK/ROW economies, however, 3000 jobs out of the economy (7.5% of the current workforce) would have a significant impact on GDP and local spending on many other locals, and would have a catastrophic effect on house prices (25% IMO). I think a 15% fall will be inevitable in house prices when my figure of 1200 jobs lost is reached, and I would qualify that 1200 to be regardless of whether people are local and lost their job, or someone not getting their work permit renewed i.e. the first 1200 jobs out of the economy.

 

I also think if things do get bad, because work permits are issued annually, the local unemployment figures would follow a bit of a rollercoaster pattern until things worked through the WPS over a year or more. So the real measure of unemployment impacting house prices will be, again, the total jobs lost, not the official unemployment figure.

 

IMO, the reality of all this will be as jobs are lost, rental property will come onto the market first driving the drop in prices. I predict a 15% drop by November 2009. If things carry on and we hit 'the bottom', maybe a 25% drop by November 2010. But IMO this will be the absolute bottom/worst case, and those that don't need to sell should just forget about everything for 2 years and weather out any storm.

 

Of course the great unknown is, that over the next two years, how many additional jobs/sectors can we attract/expand in the meantime? Regardless of whether people are talking about house prices, GDP or people losing their livelihoods - the government should be focussing all efforts on employment levels at all times - as they are all inextricably linked on an island this size.

 

So in terms of the WPS/EU balance, losing 3000 jobs wil impact house prices and the economy, but it won't force local people to have to go to the UK and Europe to seek work, other than those on work permits who are from there anyway. IMO you would have to be talking of at least around 6,000 (probably more) jobs out of the economy to consider having to address it.

[Bombay Bad Boy]

Software developers, financial analysts etc etc are needed

In specific niches, on the rise in the IoM, e.g. e-gaming, financial services, offshore hosting, if you don't have specific experience, then they'll still cart in comeovers.

[Chinahand]

BBB - the question is will they still do it if unemployment goes over 1000 - and carting in comeovers still requires lots of form filling and getting the bureaucrats stamp.

[Albert Tatlock]

BBB - the question is will they still do it if unemployment goes over 1000 - and carting in comeovers still requires lots of form filling and getting the bureaucrats stamp.

They'll have to in a lot of cases, because the expertise simply isn't here. But expect more and more decisions to come under greater scruitiny as unemployment rises, and as the pressure rises from locals - same pattern as the 90s. We've already had one round last year i.e. poles v locals (re minimum wage). i.e. queue: Bernie Moffatt, Bill Henderson et al.

 

We need to build up the high-value-skill, high-value-product range here regardless of how unemployment goes anyway. That requires a major influx of skilled people at present, and, a major improvement in education/training/motivation on the island.

 

An optimum time to reassess the whole package - work permits/immigration/strategy in general. Though the chances are slim, even though most prospective MHKs mentioned it in their manifestos, and saw it as a major doorstep issue, once again sod all has been done about it.

[b4mbi]

I'm firmly a believer that the current system should be scrapped and a new system brought it.

 

hi chinahand, there's a consultation / review process on-going at the moment. see link http://www.gov.im/dti/employmentRights/open.xml

 

if you can, I expect your comments would be gratefully received.

 

I agree with your comments about the inflexibility of current system, we've hit brick walls with it too on occasion.

[mad_manx]

Has anyone been keeping track of the asking price and sold prices over the last few months over here. This was the first thing that started to widen in the UK. Its only then that vendors started to lower the asking prices to realistic levels.

 

Its a pity that houseprices.co.uk does not list Manx prices. All you need is the post code and you get a list of all sold prices over there. Is there any alternative website for IOM?