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Oh Oh...North Korea


Albert Tatlock

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People forget that there three Koreas. The North and South we are familiar with, plus Yanbian Autonomous Prefecture ruled by Communist China. I suspect that when China has its ‘belt and road’ project in place the three Koreas may well unify under Chinese suzerainty. The coming century could also see Taiwan re-unify with China and the Philippines come under Chinese suzerainty too. The US is hanging onto control of the Western Pacific by a thread, the main card it holds is its huge military compound in the middle of Seoul. I suspect that if that were abandoned tomorrow the three Koreas would probably come together under the wing of China. The perceived threat of Kim Jong-Un is crucial to the American military presence in the South. The perceived threat of the US is crucial to the Kim dynasty’s rationale for running NK the way they do. NK could never hope to beat the US in a war, and will never instigate one. If the US were to start a war it would cause horrific casualties in the South. In the recent past you’d say that the best outcome for the US would be for the North to unify peacefully with the South under the wing of the US. American influence is not what it was, and China’s influence grows daily, so Kim Jong-Un and the US will continue to play this pantomime for as long as it works. 

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