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Lies, damned lies & experts


Chris Thomas

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10 hours ago, MrPB said:

Lots of plate spinning too. For instance, if we aren’t making provision to repay the external loan holders at maturity those bonds are going to have to be refinanced as the bond holders (probably pension funds or institutional investors) are due their money back at redemption. Also on the CLF it’s just a basket of internal loans due to Treasury so you could write some or all of it off but the controversial external MUA borrowings to Barclays must still be sat somewhere in Treasury or elsewhere whether the internal CLF loan has been written off or not? 

Thanks for comment. The bonds will mature but will not need refinancing as there is a bond fund to repay them. The unauthorized loan was paid off some years ago.

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17 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

What evidence do you have for the assertion you make about monetary inflation? I think there is quite a lot of money in the Manx economy. I was referring to cost of living. Inflation link to wage rises is the same whether they are private or public. You are right about collective bargaining difference, but I believe pay in the private sector is benchmarked extensively too which probably has similar effect.

I didn't say there was monetary inflation, or at least not above normal levels relevant to what I am talking about.

I said there was cost of living inflation caused by the sector-wide pay rise for the public sector, which adversely affects the private sector because the private sector does not have sector-wide pay rises.

It's obvious that if you have an economy where a large segment of the workforce (and their connected households) are receiving a pay rise, it will push up cost of living as businesses see it as a green light to increase prices.

Landlords and rent -- even public sector -- is an obvious example.

The prices go up because some people get a pay rise, but what about the majority who don't get a pay rise? They get screwed over, that's what happens.

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7 minutes ago, MrPB said:

To be fair thats half an answer. But enlightening. So was it only the MUA internal CLF loan written off? When were Barclays paid off if the external loan has now been settled? 

Yes, re CLF. In October 2017 Tynwald resolved that “Treasury writes off £95 million of loans to the Manx Utilities Authority from the Consolidated Loans Fund.” The unauthorized loan was paid off before then, from memory. 

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21 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

With respect, the statutory annual earnings survey of 2000 + people is more reliable than your personal experience. But you are right that average earnings in private sector have been under pressure, although median earnings not so much, and some in the private sector have had static or falling wages. Thanks for your comment.

2000 government employees :ph34r:

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7 minutes ago, Rushen Spy said:

I didn't say there was monetary inflation, or at least not above normal levels relevant to what I am talking about.

I said there was cost of living inflation caused by the sector-wide pay rise for the public sector, which adversely affects the private sector because the private sector does not have sector-wide pay rises.

It's obvious that if you have an economy where a large segment of the workforce (and their connected households) are receiving a pay rise, it will push up cost of living as businesses see it as a green light to increase prices.

Landlords and rent -- even public sector -- is an obvious example.

The prices go up because some people get a pay rise, but what about the majority who don't get a pay rise? They get screwed over, that's what happens.

Thanks for comment and discussion. The link between wage and price inflation is part of economic theory, but I am not sure you can see the connection as clearly as you suggest. Also price rises of different things affect different income people and households differently depending on different consumption patterns. Finally public sector pay negotiators have referred to higher pay rises in certain sectors in the Island’s private sector. In summary we both know this is complicated. 

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2 minutes ago, MrPB said:

So you're saying categorically the external unauthorised loan to Barclays was paid off before the internal CLF loan was written off? Seems odd to write off an internal loan that has already been repaid 

No. I am here to encourage truth. I will correct my memory if you can share with me reliable sources that show otherwise. We should all retract incorrect statements!!!

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4 minutes ago, MrPB said:

As you're in cabinet office I'm asking you? Was the external.loan to Barclays  paid off or not? You don't seem old enough to claim memory loss. 

Yes. Please read article http://www.iomtoday.co.im/article.cfm?id=36487&headline=Debts%20of%20£570m%3A%20we%27re%20still%20picking%20up%20bill%20for%20loans%20affair&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2017. Confirmed by Google and IOM Newspapers in 15 seconds. :)

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15 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

I am here to encourage truth... ...We should all retract incorrect statements!!!

Great. So was Lol Skelly telling the truth about the 6 Chinese banks? It's a simple question which only requires a simple answer/explanation/retraction ...

 

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22 minutes ago, Chris Thomas said:

Thanks for comment and discussion. The link between wage and price inflation is part of economic theory, but I am not sure you can see the connection as clearly as you suggest. Also price rises of different things affect different income people and households differently depending on different consumption patterns. Finally public sector pay negotiators have referred to higher pay rises in certain sectors in the Island’s private sector. In summary we both know this is complicated. 

How would public sector pay negotiators be in a position to reference higher pay rises in private sector? They are not privy to that information. My own mum doesn't even know my salary.

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