Population - Less Of Us Than There Used To Be?

[woolley]

We eschewed the delights of the public sector pensions meeting last night and instead attended the PAG gathering at the Manx Legion featuring Paul Craine on the subject of the Island’s population. Given that there were three political meetings clashing at the time, the turnout was respectable and the talk was fascinating. Paul obviously has an enthusiasm for Manx demographics, and has spent many years studying the subject. I don’t believe that anyone listening would dismiss his conclusions lightly. The only disappointing aspect was that Mrs W and I, hardly in the first flush of youth, were certainly in the youngest quarter of attendees there. As the evening progressed, we were perhaps presented with some of the reasons why.

 

There was a great deal of supporting information in the talk, but since nobody else has done so, I thought I would pull out a few points for a thread here and anyone who is attracted might like to get hold of the book “Isle of Man Population Atlas”. I can thoroughly recommend it as well worth the cost.

 

Paul spoke of a number of “population vulnerabilities” that the Island is subject to, such as ageing population, falling immigration, emigration of young people, lack of a population policy etc., and suggested that these could become very challenging quite quickly if not addressed. He wasn’t advocating any particular course of action. He was simply presenting his findings.

 

His most intriguing assertion in my view was that whilst the population continued to follow a gradual upward trend for a couple of years after the 2011 census, since then it has flatlined and in the last couple of years it has started to decline. This is obviously a serious matter for a small jurisdiction with huge commitments and an aspiration to increase the number of working heads of household by 1000 per year. Whilst Government projections speak of 91,000 by 2021, it isn’t happening at the moment.

 

Several indicators have been used in gathering the data. As well as information from the census office, Paul has also looked at trends such as the number of people registered with doctors and, in a particularly interesting exercise, he has followed school years from 1 to 13 through the past decade, and in the past few years has seen the numbers of children in those same years show a marked decline as they move through their school life suggesting families leaving the Island. This is borne out by the age splits in various areas of the Island that seem to be missing large numbers of twenty and thirty somethings compared to the numbers in previous decades. He has also used the UK 2011 census as an information source and found something like 1750 households at that time in the UK who, in answer to the question “Where were you living a year ago?”, answered “Isle of Man”.

 

We have a definite reduction in young working people having families. Those who came to the Island in the ‘80s, ‘90s and early ‘00s are now approaching their old age and they are not being followed into the Island by younger counterparts. Births registered in the Island are down by a staggering 23% since 2010.

 

Not only are younger people not immigrating to the Island from elsewhere, but we are also losing young Manx people to emigration. Numbers are going away to university as in earlier decades, despite charges now applying, but fewer are coming back to work here and have families.

 

Government policy was put forward as one possible direct driver of this "young person deficit" phenomenon. The UK government now offers 30 hours per week child care to young couples there worth up to £20k per year compared with a voucher for £800 here. At the same time, we all know the cost of getting on the property ladder and living here. Young people may well be comparing it with the UK, finding it wanting, and voting with their feet. Should the IOM government be trying to introduce social engineering policies to address these factors? Is there any point in having a £50 million enterprise development fund if we cannot attract or even hold on to local young people at the early stages of their careers who will be needed to staff new businesses?

 

There is a plethora of other interesting information in the maps and diagrams too. For instance the change in fuel usage in the Island and the decline of coal. The make up of the population at different times, the recent rise of the East Europeans, and much more.

 

All in all a very thought provoking evening.

 

http://www.iomtoday.co.im/news/isle-of-man-news/mapping-a-changing-population-1-7859665

Edited May 24, 2016 by woolley

[manxy]

Woolley - Interesting post

[Barrie Stevens]

Excellent but just like it was in March 1986 when I arrived on the Island..In the sense that they were on about people leaving etc...Looks the same really...There was back in 1986 a trend for young folks to leave and then the Finance Sector proffered office jobs to halt this...And now it seems the reduction of the Finance Sector as long predicted has to some extent brought it all back again...But not nearly so bad as in 1986 I suggest as there is much more still going on..

[Tarne]

When's the census data out? I hope the population has fallen but I'm just not seeing it. Also I'm still a jobless wonder, huzzah

[Shake me up Judy]

It's more interesting to understand the politics behind these figures with questions such as:

 

Why our brightest and best young people leave the Island and few return.

The reasons why we have such an aging demographic and population imbalance.

The poor social mobility on the Island.

Planned and unplanned immigration into the Island.

Employment, training, and housing opportunities for young Manx people and families.

Economic and Government policy.

​Manx culture and values etc.

 

These things are never really discussed.....apart from on here of course !

[GD4ELI]

Excellent but just like it was in March 1986 when I arrived on the Island..In the sense that they were on about people leaving etc...Looks the same really...There was back in 1986 a trend for young folks to leave and then the Finance Sector proffered office jobs to halt this...And now it seems the reduction of the Finance Sector as long predicted has to some extent brought it all back again...But not nearly so bad as in 1986 I suggest as there is much more still going on..

 

And the 70's. I have the Ballaugh school photos for the infants class (my mother was the teacher), for some years there were just 8, 9 or 10 kids in her class, possibly traceable back to the financial state of the island in the late 60's.

[woolley]

When's the census data out? I hope the population has fallen but I'm just not seeing it. Also I'm still a jobless wonder, huzzah

I have the feeling that it has. I travel around the Island a lot on a daily basis for business and leisure at different times. It could just be perception of course and memory playing tricks with me, but I am convinced that despite households owning more vehicles nowadays I don't see the levels of traffic I saw 6 or 7 years ago. Queues seem shorter and persist for less time. I know it isn't scientific but there we are.

[Mission]

Did he give any indication as to what he thought the current population figure is?

 

I seem to recall between the last two census' that the population in Ramsey had slightly declined, despite new housing stock having been constructed, so it will be interesting to see what the figure is this time around.

 

@Tarne, I think the figures come out in September (based on previous census').

[Rhumsaa]

Thanks for the post Woolley, excellent summary of an evening I wanted to attend but had a clash.

[gettafa]

Friends staying do comment how generally 'old ' people are on the Island. I take offence of course but there is a point there, I suppose compared to a snapshot of other towns in UK we are older.

 

A graveyard with lights.

 

A depressing thought.

[woolley]

Friends staying do comment how generally 'old ' people are on the Island. I take offence of course but there is a point there, I suppose compared to a snapshot of other towns in UK we are older.

 

A graveyard with lights.

 

A depressing thought.

Yes, and of course this heightens the effect. It is well recognised that the "bulge" of 80s and 90s immigrants and baby boomers generally is heading towards less economic activity and higher costs of care in old age. This only exacerbates the dearth of younger people in work. It could of course also explain my perception of less traffic if hordes have retired in the last few years and aren't getting up and out each morning. They might still be here but they are at home pottering rather than working for the common good.

[NoTail]

If this is correct it will be interesting to watch house prices. House prices are notoriously sticky (owners only want to sell at inflated prices and politicians will do anything to maintain high prices), eventually the market reality hits and there is a collapse in prices. This is of course a good thing in the long term, allowing younger people into the market etc.

[eric the bloodaxe]

House prices are falling and have been for a few years .

[Butterflies]

Interesting. I think this is correct, when I look at my own family/friends. Several of them have moved off the Island in the last 5-10 years - at different ages, but all whilst under 35. Some have taken their children, some are more like children themselves.

 

Of those who have come back from University, they end up working in a deadend finance job that anyone could do, degree or no degree. The job market is limited for any other careers.

 

The comparison with £20k pa towards childcare & £800 is shocking! That combined with higher income tax rates/lower personal allowance, higher cost of living, much higher property prices (inc rental), lower minimum wage & it's not hard to see why some are fleeing.

 

Edit to add - yes, property prices are falling. Nothing is selling. Those who do not drop their prices dramatically end up with their house on the market for several years & still no sale. All the new-builds don't help.

Edited May 25, 2016 by Butterflies

[Tarne]

Just checked in 2011 it took until the following year to come out. Ouch