slinkydevil Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 God help Israel. Which God? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Thats people power for you... Out of a population of 80 million, appx 10,000 people were protesting. About a concert full. Actually - I predict a concert for Egypt. * We're dumb to fall for this freedom bollocks. He would still be there if it wasn't for all the people that matter wanting him gone. And the international community seeing which way the wind is blowing and wanting a smooth transition. * although as with the Haiti fund very little of the money will ever be distributed PS: Some good news though: Wyclef Jean has an announcement for you all: we ain't the only one is struggling. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinahand Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 @Pongo - what are you saying? That Obama has got rid of him, or who are these people who matter? I think that misses out an awful lot. 100s of thousands have demonstrated not 10s, and all over the country. Multiple deaths didn't stop it and violence could easily have escallated, but the army then said the police violence against the protesters must end, and that thankfully reduced the anarchy. Egypt was a police state where up until a month ago any sign of opposition would have got you arrested and at risk of torture. I really wouldn't be so dismissive of what has happened - this is a huge Black Swan and very much linked with what happened in Tunisia, where there was no geopolitical meddling. This is a massively significant event unprecedented in Arab history. If (and it is a big if) a more representative democracy emerges it will a unique moment in Egyptian history. Its very geopolitically unsettling - Israel is extremely nervous about what might happen both to its Arab ally who's helped it clamp down on Gaza, and if the Palestinians try the same thing on them. The last time Mass public demonstation and civil disobedience toppled a Middle Eastern strong man was Iran in 1979. That ended badly, touch wood it it won't repeat itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazza Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Democracy all the way to the Muslim Brotherhood and then that’s the end of all democracy as we know it. not a good sign if they get into power Thats people power for you... Out of a population of 80 million, appx 10,000 people were protesting. About a concert full. Actually - I predict a concert for Egypt. * appx 10,000 people were protesting, link of this appx number, or talking shit, id say the last, there were 100s of thousands, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 appx 10,000 people were protesting, link of this appx number, or talking shit, id say the last, there were 100s of thousands, You right. Me wrong. OK 100,000s. 1000 apologies. Or 2 million depending on which report you read. @Pongo - what are you saying? What I am saying is that I am incredibly sceptical of sudden change presented in the media as 'people power'. We only ever think of it as 'people power' if it is some place else. Here they would be called mobs and rioters. Money and our govts have supported the existing power in Egypt for years - eg delighted to sell them arms etc. Now suddenly we're all about democracy and 'people power'. I don't tend to believe in "black swan" events and see that as a sort of almost semi mystical analysis of events. This hasn't come from nowhere. We already knew that the middle east is overtly, as opposed to subtly, oppressive and potentially volatile. Sooner or later it would go. We know that other places are equally brewing trouble. And it is for the people there to decide what sort of govt they want next - though there will be considerable external diplomatic pressure for a smooth and easy transition. The way we like it. Money wants nothing much to change ... but for the people to be less likely to get agitated again for the moment. The west would like Egypt and the region in general to be pacified and homogenised. So suddenly, if all else fails, they support 'democracy' - having previously supported the existing power. Now if a significant number of people in Israel were to take to the streets to protest against their own govt and to call for a concerted effort towards an international settlement based around a one state non secular solution .... then I might start believing. I wonder whether Facebook, Google and Twitter is that powerful. (and I say that as someone who is, at heart, pro Israeli). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merkin Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Civil war just round the corner as various groups fight for power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Civil war just round the corner as various groups fight for power. That's utterly random speak. Do you actually believe that, really ? Don't you think that, in reality, what will happen is that a softer seeming version of the same power will ultimately be re imposed. For now power has been handed to the military. The big man has gone and will be replaced by some sort of interim rainbow council of ministers ahead of elections. It does not especially matter to the world what flavour the govt is provided that external policy is essentially the same. However I expect the period of turmoil to continue for a while - talk of a possible religious takeover etc - since uncertainty is going to be a good way to up the oil price seemingly ever higher (towards the magic $200) ahead of shorting it before everything returns to more or less normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merkin Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Civil war just round the corner as various groups fight for power. That's utterly random speak. Do you actually believe that, really ? Don't you think that, in reality, what will happen is that a softer seeming version of the same power will ultimately be re imposed. For now power has been handed to the military. The big man has gone and will be replaced by some sort of interim rainbow council of ministers ahead of elections. It does not especially matter to the world what flavour the govt is provided that external policy is essentially the same. However I expect the period of turmoil to continue for a while - talk of a possible religious takeover etc - since uncertainty is going to be a good way to up the oil price seemingly ever higher (towards the magic $200) ahead of shorting it before everything returns to more or less normal. Just a thought really. I wouldn't be surprised if two or more religious groups go head-to-head to seize power. There could easily be a Sunni/Sufi/Shi'a/Christian struggle to run the country. Religion is a very important part of life there and the people take it more seriously than in the West. I do hope things go smoothly though, for the peoples sake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pongo Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Just a thought really. I wouldn't be surprised if two or more religious groups go head-to-head to seize power. There could easily be a Sunni/Sufi/Shi'a/Christian struggle to run the country. Religion is a very important part of life there and the people take it more seriously than in the West. Aren't they basically more or less like us except slightly more connected ? It's not some nutter community. Aren't their Moslems more or less not much more extreme than our methodists for the most part. And we've got people close to the methodists in govt FFS. Nasser was fairly moderate compared with the leadership which big money and the west has been supporting for the past umpteen years. The difference then was the Cold War. The Israeli issue needs sorting out. Even that is starting to seem like something which will ultimately be solved. Probably not in our lives but it will happen. The two state solution which was suggested in the 90s failed because it did not address the issues. Ultimately the solution is to re unite the entire land area (possibly ultimately also including Jordan) in order to build a non secular state with adequate resources. Granted that may take several generations and various steps along the way. As with Ireland they are going to have to gradualize it - or couch it terms of some sort of federal arrangement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P.K. Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 As ever the politicians rely on the armed forces for their grip on power. In a way the US only has itself to blame, but for them the Suez Canal might still be in EU hands. But I'm not surprised that Obama's authority is on the wane though. Todays I: "I felt a genuine pang of sadness at this week's news that Barack Obama has finally given up smoking. The pester-power of the women in his life, his wife and daughters, have apparently broken this once proud man at last. Michelle Obama announced her triumph on American television." Little wonder he's not getting the attention he used to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazza Posted February 11, 2011 Share Posted February 11, 2011 Civil war just round the corner as various groups fight for power. not while there is milatry rule there wont be, what is more worrying is if they decided to have a pop at Israeli, all depends how much they need the US cash they get, which i would say is plenty to keep them at bay, Its what happins in the next elections, and if the Muslim Brotherhood take power, The US cant be seen to be giving what is classed as a terroist group billions in cash, but what other way have they got to control them, Intrsting times ahead, While the people may well think they have made an impact, whos to say that things will get better and not worse, There in a hell of a worse state now then 19 days ago, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spook Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 I'm waiting for the Sh'ia and the Sunni conflict to hot up. Iran has been up to far more than making its atom weapons, it's been using that as a smoke screen to avoid attention being given to what's really been going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La_Dolce_Vita Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 What I am saying is that I am incredibly sceptical of sudden change presented in the media as 'people power'. We only ever think of it as 'people power' if it is some place else. Here they would be called mobs and rioters. Money and our govts have supported the existing power in Egypt for years - eg delighted to sell them arms etc. Now suddenly we're all about democracy and 'people power'. No, I am not sure I agree. I believe the view of something being 'people power' is used when we agree with what is going on, on the back of there being a lot of being supporting it. Mob and rioters is used in an political environment where the majority unfortunately don't give a fuck about the issue (such as tuition fees) but have support for the government to such an extent that a tolerated campaign has to tread a fine line. As some as, what is considered, a small issue gets violent against property people just gets their knickers (and brains) in a hopeless twist and the campaign is doomed to public criticism. During scenes of 'people power' violence is used very much, but because of 'taste' for certain political goals and the information we are fed, we don't care if there is violence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazza Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 All i know is the ME is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off, i think its 3-4 places now that have protests at this moment, iran is on the verge of it all again, and the more food prices rise the more chance of this going off, and in the past 2 weeks, major crops all around the world have been destroyed that will push the price up this year, adding to the unrest in these places, And people say food is nowt to worry about It just gos to show, where people in the rich world complain about bank chargers price of there gas going up and god forbid there phone bill being more, And at the end of the day thats all they do complain and whine about it, all smoke and no fire, and in retrospect that should be all it is, Because im betting 75% of people that complain about it are no where near the bread line, living beyond there means YES, cant afford to live NO, And im guilty of it myself, many posts of me complaing about fuel price, But at the end of the day we can cut out spending on other things and still bye food to live and water to drink. But its the day you cant afford to buy 3 meals a day that places and people change hence the reason why the ME is where it is today, And while they have othwer reasons to protest the main ones are because they cant afford to eat, they cant bye there food because they have no job and no cash, or there in low paid jobs, With food inflation going up all around the world caused by global prices of all foods rising at a rate not seen for years, Then add this to low wealth places and the end results are protests, They have northing to lose so who can blame them, And the prices are set to rise, with the ME and east buying upto a years supply of food, With places taking off there import taxs of food to lower the price. Thing is with egypt they have blamed the man in charge, and to be fair it prob is his doing as he is in charge, and by all reports stolen a great deal of cash from his contry (let to belive its around 40 billion) But getting rid of him will not change egypt for the better in the short term, if anything it prob will have caused more problems then it solved, the millions lost in them 18 days, it is more like billions, and one of there main income streams is dead over night, and will take many years to get back tourism, Many more people will find themselfs without a job unable to buy food to live, FOOD is king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
La_Dolce_Vita Posted February 12, 2011 Share Posted February 12, 2011 These things are for the good and to be hoped for if they make these states more democratic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.