IndyRef2 here we go again

[Non-Believer]

10 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

That is one hell of a supposition to base an argument on.

Lets engage in another bit of conjecture. Scotland as an independent nation joins the EU. They have to do , like other minor nations do, what the big boys ( France Germany and Italy say. It all goes tits up and they start to do rather less well than what’s left of the UK who have ploughing their own furrow with respect to trade agreements with the rest of the world etc etc

What then for Scotland ?

Why is it a hell of a supposition? It's what will happen if Scotland is given its wish for a referendum, pure and simple.

One needs to remember such as the Scottish farming community who essentially existed on EU subsidies. No way were they going to vote for independence the first time around and cut themselves off from that cash cow. A cash cow that the UK Govt has had to step in to only partly replace.

Ask that community now if they'd like their EU subsidies back and there'll be an overwhelming yes response.

As for the EU doing rather less well than the UK...evidence to date please? We've been getting told about its collapse for at least 20 years now and oddly, it's still there. To include evidence of these worldly, global trade deals, particularly the "oven-ready" variety that were promised? Hasn't the one with Japan just "stumbled"? The "lamb and mutton" one with Australia?

Why haven't all our thousands of job vacancies been filled now that all those Johnny Foreigners have gone back whence they came instead of depriving UK natives of employment? Why is our NHS collapsing when we've got an extra £350M a week to throw at it?

The only way the UK is going is back to the insular, xenophobic, inequality-ridden culture that it was up to 50 years ago, that's more than obvious by the state of its economy and society currently.

The economics that the UK was built on through the world being there for the exploration, taking and raping by galleons and later warships from Plymouth and Portsmouth is no longer applicable. The world has moved on.

[John Wright]

37 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

That is one hell of a supposition to base an argument on.

Lets engage in another bit of conjecture. Scotland as an independent nation joins the EU. They have to do , like other minor nations do, what the big boys ( France Germany and Italy say. It all goes tits up and they start to do rather less well than what’s left of the UK who have ploughing their own furrow with respect to trade agreements with the rest of the world etc etc

What then for Scotland ?

Nowhere could do less well than rump UK ploughing it’s own downward spiralling furrow with useless trade agreements outside the EU..

So you’ve got a conjecture that’s possible against one that’s a total impossibility.

Gotta love your faith in the pipe dream.

[manxman1980]

1 hour ago, The Voice of Reason said:

I’m not a sore loser.I didn’t know the answer so pointed Manxman 1980 in  your direction knowing with near absolute certainty you could provide him with the answer to his question.

To be honest I knew the answer thanks to History classes and Google.  It was intended as an invite for you to reflect on whether the UK's membership of the EU could be accurately compared to Scotlands membership of the UK.

@John Wrighthas kindly supplied you with the information that you were missing.

So do you now see why people like me find the denial of indyref2 by Brexiteers to be so bizarre especially around the claims of all important sovereignty? 

 

[manxman1980]

6 minutes ago, John Wright said:

Nowhere could do less well than rump UK ploughing it’s own downward spiralling furrow with useless trade agreements outside the EU..

So you’ve got a conjecture that’s possible against one that’s a total impossibility.

Gotta love your faith in the pipe dream.

I think there is also a growing prospect of Wales wanting it's own independence despite having been pro-brexit.

The reality appears to be sinking in there that the UK will not match the previous EU investments and grants to develop the countries economy. 

It could well be a new Celtic alliance, within the EU, leaves behind an insular England.

[The Voice of Reason]

2 hours ago, Non-Believer said:

Why is it a hell of a supposition? It's what will happen if Scotland is given its wish for a referendum, pure and simple.

And yet I am the one accused of having faith in a pipe dream!

[manxman1980]

1 hour ago, The Voice of Reason said:

And yet I am the one accused of having faith in a pipe dream!

What was Brexit about for you personally?   Why do you think leaving the EU was the correct thing to do?

[The Voice of Reason]

11 minutes ago, manxman1980 said:

What was Brexit about for you personally?   Why do you think leaving the EU was the correct thing to do?

Gosh. I’m sure I have explained my reasoning already in this thread probably multiple times.

I’m not evading the question but it’s getting late. Maybe you could go through my previous contributions in this thread

But to make it simple “Sovereignty” or to quote Boris Johnson “ take back control” That’s the essence

See also “Brexit penny dropping thread”

Edited January 1, 2023 by The Voice of Reason
Last sentence

[manxman1980]

29 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

Gosh. I’m sure I have explained my reasoning already in this thread probably multiple times.

I’m not evading the question but it’s getting late. Maybe you could go through my previous contributions in this thread

But to make it simple “Sovereignty” or to quote Boris Johnson “ take back control” That’s the essence

See also “Brexit penny dropping thread”

That's fine and I appreciate the response.   It is what I thought but wanted clarity. 

In Scotland's case you need to swap Brussels for Westminster and the EU for the UK.  

While there have been Scottish prime ministers there is no hope of the SNP for example becoming the majority party in Westminster.  

Unless there is another coalition Government which involves the SNP Scotland will always feel like second class citizens in the UK.

[P.K.]

32 minutes ago, The Voice of Reason said:

Gosh. I’m sure I have explained my reasoning already in this thread probably multiple times.

I’m not evading the question but it’s getting late. Maybe you could go through my previous contributions in this thread

But to make it simple “Sovereignty” or to quote Boris Johnson “ take back control” That’s the essence

See also “Brexit penny dropping thread”

Ah yes, take back control...

Channel crossings: 45,756 people came to UK in small boats in 2022

Two boats from France on 25 December were the last recorded in 2022, according to the Ministry of Defence, bringing the total number of people known to have crossed to 45,756. Rain and high winds on the south coast may have prevented crossings.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/01/total-of-45756-people-crossed-channel-to-uk-in-small-boats-in-2022

@The Voice of Reason In the unlikely event the UK rejoins the EU which brexit benefits would you miss the most and why...?

[woolley]

6 hours ago, John Wright said:

 I’m not trying to show off. 

I was never aware of you needing to try.

[woolley]

6 hours ago, John Wright said:

Totally. And by then there’ll be a United Ireland doing better than rump UK/England as well.

Although the land border will only be relevant for Scotland/England trade. Anything into the EU will go via Ireland to Spain, France, Belgium and Holland, or by ferry from East Scotland to Germany or Holland - bypassing the English landbridge altogether.

Regular freight sailings between Rosyth to Zeebrugge start again in April using a RoPax ferry.

Pure conjecture dressed up as insight.

[woolley]

5 hours ago, John Wright said:

Nowhere could do less well than rump UK ploughing it’s own downward spiralling furrow with useless trade agreements outside the EU..

So you’ve got a conjecture that’s possible against one that’s a total impossibility.

Gotta love your faith in the pipe dream.

Ridiculous. The entire world is in a post-covid Ukraine war affected trough. Cast your eyes more widely.

[woolley]

44 minutes ago, manxman1980 said:

That's fine and I appreciate the response.   It is what I thought but wanted clarity. 

In Scotland's case you need to swap Brussels for Westminster and the EU for the UK.  

While there have been Scottish prime ministers there is no hope of the SNP for example becoming the majority party in Westminster.  

Unless there is another coalition Government which involves the SNP Scotland will always feel like second class citizens in the UK.

It says a lot about the staunch principles of the SNP that in the run up to indyref 1 they were content to junk EU membership to gain independence. No big deal, but now indyref 2 is based pretty much entirely on the imperative of EU membership. Quite amusing really, but on the basis of democracy, if they want independence then independence they should have.

[manxman1980]

11 minutes ago, woolley said:

It says a lot about the staunch principles of the SNP that in the run up to indyref 1 they were content to junk EU membership to gain independence. No big deal, but now indyref 2 is based pretty much entirely on the imperative of EU membership. Quite amusing really, but on the basis of democracy, if they want independence then independence they should have.

Personally I think the SNP always saw EU membership as something they would drop to gain independence from the UK.  

They always knew that Spain would veto their membership as an independent country because of their own internal issues.

In a post Brexit world I am not sure Spain would see the same issues 

[Freggyragh]

Hate to break the news to you, but there's no empire left, so the EU has far better trade deals than the UK can possibly negotiate on its own. Even hardcore brexiters acknowledge that, except for the super wealthy, everyone was obviously going to be much poorer. (though they believe it is worth it for 'sovereignty')

If there's a benchmark for Scotland it is the ROI per capita GDP of USD$99,152, compared to the UK per capita GDP of USD$47,334 (2021 stats).

Ireland's per capita GDP was 63% of Scotland's at independence in 1922. It is now 122%. The gap has, of course, been widening rapidly since brexit — and their rivers aren't full of sewage either. 

So, support for Scottish Independence is pretty solidly in favour now, and has been for some time.