Kopek Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 Hallsall was not too good at tonights meeting despite the support on here for him. so, Walker and Turner on the clapometer. Turner being more Labour than Hallsall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
llap Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 Hallsall was not too good at tonights meeting despite the support on here for him. so, Walker and Turner on the clapometer. Turner being more Labour than Hallsall? Doing better than you, though. Hasn't failed an election yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Tatlock Posted September 15, 2016 Share Posted September 15, 2016 AC&M - Gawne & Parker Ayre - Cannan and The Kid Douglas Central - Thomas and Falk Douglas East - Halsall and Bettison Douglas North - Peake and Ashcroft Douglas South - Fitton and Beecroft Garff - Perkins and Caine Glenfaba and Peel - Harmer and Hanson Middle - Craine and Quayle Onchan - Quirk and Callister Ramsey - Allinson and Hooper Rushen - Watterson and Scampi The nightmare team in Onchan I'm afraid. 50% right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted September 16, 2016 Author Share Posted September 16, 2016 Perhaps a direct reflection of the much-identified paucity of decent candidates but very many of my friends with whom I've had "election chat" are planning to vote for one candidate only. Although I think there's a bit of a history of that here (in multi seat constituencies of course) if it's widespread it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebees Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Yeah, I was kind of thinking of only using one vote but I think Richard Falk will be better for the Isle of Man than Ann Corlett (there is no point in even listing the others - go home now) so, much as it pains me... I R voting for Tory boy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted September 16, 2016 Author Share Posted September 16, 2016 Yeah, I was kind of thinking of only using one vote but I think Richard Falk will be better for the Isle of Man than Ann Corlett (there is no point in even listing the others - go home now) so, much as it pains me... I R voting for Tory boy too There is no doubt that some candidates are adopting a strategy of seeking to pick up the second vote (not necessarily Falk tho'). If there turns out, Island-wide, to be not much of a second vote - or at least, substantial numbers of voters choosing not to exercise both votes - those plans could well go awry. It seems to me to be a flawed plan to court the idea publically that you are, essentially, second best. It could sow a seed in the voters mind that, actually, you're not worth voting for at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Declan Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 AC&M - Gawne & Parker Ayre - Cannan and The Kid Douglas Central - Thomas and Falk Douglas East - Halsall and Bettison Douglas North - Peake and Ashcroft Douglas South - Fitton and Beecroft Garff - Perkins and Caine Glenfaba and Peel - Harmer and Hanson Middle - Craine and Quayle Onchan - Quirk and Callister Ramsey - Allinson and Hooper Rushen - Watterson and Scampi The nightmare team in Onchan I'm afraid. 50% right. That's because half of me is optimistic that people will do the right thing and half worries they won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 Perhaps a direct reflection of the much-identified paucity of decent candidates but very many of my friends with whom I've had "election chat" are planning to vote for one candidate only. Although I think there's a bit of a history of that here (in multi seat constituencies of course) if it's widespread it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. I've looked at the figures for the percentage of 'unused votes' there were in 2011. In a two-seater the percentage of people who only used one vote will be twice that, while it would have been more complicated in a three-seater because people may fail to use one or two vote and you can't distinguish which. For the old multi-member seats in 2011 the percentage was: Douglas East 12.8% Douglas North 12.3% Douglas South 17.6% Douglas West 11.7% Onchan 16.3% Ramsey 10.4% Rushen 17.6% It's surprisingly consistent with just under 1 in 4 voters in the two-seaters 'plumping' for a single candidate - higher in Douglas South because of Cretney's vote and decades of working the constituency. A quarter of voters picking a single candidate in the three-seaters while the rest picked three would give you the 16 or 17% you see for Onchan and Rushen. So it's not a bad rule of thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted September 16, 2016 Author Share Posted September 16, 2016 Perhaps a direct reflection of the much-identified paucity of decent candidates but very many of my friends with whom I've had "election chat" are planning to vote for one candidate only. Although I think there's a bit of a history of that here (in multi seat constituencies of course) if it's widespread it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. I've looked at the figures for the percentage of 'unused votes' there were in 2011. In a two-seater the percentage of people who only used one vote will be twice that, while it would have been more complicated in a three-seater because people may fail to use one or two vote and you can't distinguish which. For the old multi-member seats in 2011 the percentage was: Douglas East 12.8% Douglas North 12.3% Douglas South 17.6% Douglas West 11.7% Onchan 16.3% Ramsey 10.4% Rushen 17.6% It's surprisingly consistent with just under 1 in 4 voters in the two-seaters 'plumping' for a single candidate - higher in Douglas South because of Cretney's vote and decades of working the constituency. A quarter of voters picking a single candidate in the three-seaters while the rest picked three would give you the 16 or 17% you see for Onchan and Rushen. So it's not a bad rule of thumb. Interesting Rog - well done and thank you. It's one to watch...let's see if that 1 in 4 ratio increase next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted September 16, 2016 Share Posted September 16, 2016 One other thing there may be linkage with is the number of candidates. Generally the more there are, the fewer votes seem to be unused - which makes sense, voters have more choice. This may be another reason for Douglas South - there were only three candidate, while Ramsey with six had the lowest percentage. It doesn't make a vast difference, but it does make some. Although the total number of candidates is about the same (63 compared to 64 in 2011) because there are three fewer seats, there are more per seat. So we could see the percentage drop a bit, especially in the Douglas seats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted September 16, 2016 Author Share Posted September 16, 2016 One other thing there may be linkage with is the number of candidates. Generally the more there are, the fewer votes seem to be unused - which makes sense, voters have more choice. This may be another reason for Douglas South - there were only three candidate, while Ramsey with six had the lowest percentage. It doesn't make a vast difference, but it does make some. Although the total number of candidates is about the same (63 compared to 64 in 2011) because there are three fewer seats, there are more per seat. So we could see the percentage drop a bit, especially in the Douglas seats. I think that's a well-reasoned case. Those of my friends suggesting that they'll be "one vote-ers" is because of disaffection for all remaining candidates. (Seemingly a fairly widespread sentiment here on MF too). It'll be interesting to see which end of the tug of war wins...the "two votes likely used because of the extent of candidates" or "no way am I voting for any of the rest of this shower, one vote it is". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donald Trumps Posted September 17, 2016 Share Posted September 17, 2016 Yeah, I was kind of thinking of only using one vote but I think Richard Falk will be better for the Isle of Man than Ann Corlett (there is no point in even listing the others - go home now) so, much as it pains me... I R voting for Tory boy too There is no doubt that some candidates are adopting a strategy of seeking to pick up the second vote (not necessarily Falk tho'). If there turns out, Island-wide, to be not much of a second vote - or at least, substantial numbers of voters choosing not to exercise both votes - those plans could well go awry. It seems to me to be a flawed plan to court the idea publically that you are, essentially, second best. It could sow a seed in the voters mind that, actually, you're not worth voting for at all. Surely just by standing in Douglas Central (he lives in Douglas East) Falk is attempting to pick up the 2nd vote He knows full well that Chris Thomas is favourite to lead the field Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kopek Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 I would have thought his reasoning was that the demograph of the old Dlas west is more right of centre, as is he and that they were more likely to appreciate his financial arguments? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted September 18, 2016 Author Share Posted September 18, 2016 I would have thought his reasoning was that the demograph of the old Dlas west is more right of centre, as is he and that they were more likely to appreciate his financial arguments? Id say that's a correct assessment on your part Kopers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donald Trumps Posted September 18, 2016 Share Posted September 18, 2016 The old Douglas West was conservative with a small c, not a 'too right wing to be called conservative' label Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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