oldmanxfella Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Well he missed Rob Callister in Onchan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted September 1, 2016 Author Share Posted September 1, 2016 I'm loving the engagement with this thread - thank you to all who have contributed so far...much thought and passion on display. Honest Uhtred bookmakers have the odds for the "Bottom of the pile-er" currently at Joughin 3/1; Fowler and Kemp Evens and Inglis 1/2 on. Keep 'em coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanxfella Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 Inglis being bottom of the pile, and Turner a close second. Jonny Joughin has bought a lot of chinos. He will be expecting to use them in the near future, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woolley Posted September 1, 2016 Share Posted September 1, 2016 That woman in Douglas (not sure which constituency) who was so terminally dire that she could hardly answer a question or string a sentence together and even Stuart "Paxo" Peters felt moved to help her out by answering his own questions. They could have helped her a bit more by giving her John Moss who invariably answers his own questions no matter who he is interviewing. Nobody would have suspected a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhumsaa Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 I think the lowest vote will come from Douglas East or Castletown, Malew & Arbory due to the volume of candidates CMA is my bet because they will be used to having 1 vote only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisenchuk Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 With there being so few options in Peel Boot will probably get quite a few votes, and it'll probably be pretty close between all three. Joughin could be a good shout. Joughin will get 59 votes I reckon. At least 100 of his supporters must have smelled the bacon by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manx Bean Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Joughin and Turner must be favourite, although the 2 chuckle brothers from the northern reduced gene pool (Crowe and Kermode) won't be too far behind. Shit a brick, this is depressing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finlo Posted September 2, 2016 Share Posted September 2, 2016 Joughin and Turner must be favourite, although the 2 chuckle brothers from the northern reduced gene pool (Crowe and Kermode) won't be too far behind. Shit a brick, this is depressing... Kermode is from Peel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hissingsid Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 I think Singer will get the least number of votes in Ramsey, Caine in Garff, Quirk in Onchan, Turner in Douglas, Quayle in Middle, Skelly down South, Cregeen wherever and Gawne wherever. What is the prize ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossHogg Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 My losers list is below. It does make you wonder why they removed the requirement for people to pay deposits which were non returnable if you didn't get a certain number of votes Arbory C & M - Quine Ayre - Ayres Douglas Central - Inglis Douglas East - Turner Douglas North - Sirdefield or Angela (close as Karen Angela hardly got anything on Corpy election) Douglas South - Fowler Garff - Dobson or Barton (probably Dobson but close) Glenfaba - Hanson Middle - Bowers Onchan - Allen Ramsey - McDonagh Rushen - Cussons or Hampton (probably Cussons but close) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted September 3, 2016 Author Share Posted September 3, 2016 I think Singer will get the least number of votes in Ramsey, Caine in Garff, Quirk in Onchan, Turner in Douglas, Quayle in Middle, Skelly down South, Cregeen wherever and Gawne wherever. What is the prize ? The prize is my ceaseless admiration and the opportunity to constantly remind all on MF that you are the pre-eminent psephologist on the Isle of Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uhtred Posted September 3, 2016 Author Share Posted September 3, 2016 My losers list is below. It does make you wonder why they removed the requirement for people to pay deposits which were non returnable if you didn't get a certain number of votes Arbory C & M - Quine Ayre - Ayres Douglas Central - Inglis Douglas East - Turner Douglas North - Sirdefield or Angela (close as Karen Angela hardly got anything on Corpy election) Douglas South - Fowler Garff - Dobson or Barton (probably Dobson but close) Glenfaba - Hanson Middle - Bowers Onchan - Allen Ramsey - McDonagh Rushen - Cussons or Hampton (probably Cussons but close) That's a list which already basks in the glow of probability - a creditable, and eventually perhaps, magnificent effort Boss Hogg. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BossHogg Posted September 3, 2016 Share Posted September 3, 2016 My losers list is below. It does make you wonder why they removed the requirement for people to pay deposits which were non returnable if you didn't get a certain number of votes Arbory C & M - Quine Ayre - Ayres Douglas Central - Inglis Douglas East - Turner Douglas North - Sirdefield or Angela (close as Karen Angela hardly got anything on Corpy election) Douglas South - Fowler Garff - Dobson or Barton (probably Dobson but close) Glenfaba - Hanson Middle - Bowers Onchan - Allen Ramsey - McDonagh Rushen - Cussons or Hampton (probably Cussons but close) That's a list which already basks in the glow of probability - a creditable, and eventually perhaps, magnificent effort Boss Hogg. Well done. If I'm on a roll my winners list is Arbory C & M - Crowther, Gawne, Cregeen, Parker (close for re-standers difficult to call) Ayre - Cannon, Whitelegg Douglas Central - Thomas, Falk Douglas East - Robertshaw, Halsall, Joughin (last 2 close either way) Douglas North - Peake, Ashford, Houghton (last 2 close either way) Douglas South - Beecroft, Malarkey (sadly) Garff - Caine, Smith (sadly) Glenfaba - Harmer, Boot Middle - Quayle, Craine Onchan - Quirk, Callister (woeful but accurate I think) Ramsey - Allinson, Singer, Hooper (last 2 close either way) Rushen - Watterson, Skelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Mexico Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 I'm a bit surprised people are reckoning that Hanson will come last in Glenfaba and Peel. This is the only case where we have some evidence as all three candidates stood in the simultaneous Peel and Glenfaba by-elections a year ago. Harmer got 799 votes and Hanson 616. Boot by contrast only got 424, even though he won. The truth is that Glenfaba only makes up a much smaller part of the new combined constituency - 35% on 2011 figures[1]. Now it may be that with two votes to cast, Peel voters decide to give the second to Boot. But they are more likely to give their other vote to the other Peel candidate. And Boot isn't even that popular in Glenfaba, he only won the by-election with three votes more on his third (?) attempt. Presumably a lot of voters in Glenfaba will choose the other two to keep him out. And because there are only three candidates in total, the votes against won't be split. (For what it's worth I think the constituency has a pretty uninspiring choice and you would have hoped that some better, or at least extra, candidates would have stood. But there you go). [1] This may be even smaller, as what population increase there has been on the Island in the last five years seems to be in Peel. Glenfaba and Peel is the only constituency to see its electorate go up since than - every other one has dropped. This gives support to the idea that the Island's population is going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gettafa Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Hanson did well in 2011. If there hadn't been so many new contenders to split the anti-vote then Tim Crookall would have been well and truly kicked out. Timothy Mark Crookall..........646Leslie Lucas Hanson............615Raymond Karl Harmer............522Arran Ernest Kaighin...........265Rodger Mark Gimbert............252 Just as a matter of course his agent should have asked for a recount. It has been known for an MHK candidate to just about be announced the winner when the agent asked for a recount only to find that a pile of votes had been wrongly allocated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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